The Best Actress race has been the most unpredictable and complicated for the last few years. Last year, Demi Moore ran the awards gambit for The Substance, winning a Golden Globe, SAG, and Critics’ Choice. Yet, the young ingenue Mikey Madison won the Oscar, after winning at BAFTA, right as her film, Anora, won Best Picture. Previously in 2023, Emma Stone won her second Oscar for Poor Things, after her Globe and BAFTA wins, despite Lily Gladstone winning Globe and SAG for Killers of the Flower Moon.
One takeaway from these past Best Actress races is the strength of their films to win Best Picture. Anora, Everything Everywhere All At Once (2022), and Nomadland (2020) won Best Picture, along with their lead actresses winning. Poor Things was the runner-up to Oppenheimer, after winning four Oscars. The lesson is, if an actress’s film is strong enough to win Picture, their chances of winning Actress increase over their competition.
Is The Best Actress Race Over?
It feels almost insurmountable for anyone to supplant the momentum Jessie Buckley is on for Hamnet. The critical and audience acclaim has been incredible, as her grief-stricken performance of a mother losing her son and finding emotional catharsis through art is going to resonate with awards voters. And Hamnet has positioned itself to be a strong Best Picture contender, after winning the TIFF People’s Choice Award, which will only bolster Buckley’s bid to win the prize. It sounds cocky to feel comfortably settled on a certain figure to win when history has said otherwise. That history helps contextualize where Buckley finds herself in the thick of awards season.
Expected to receive her first nomination is Renate Reinsve in Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value. The follow-up to the duo’s previous collaboration, The Worst Person in the World (2021), Value seems will be their breakthrough in the awards conversation, with Neon launching this as their main contender after winning the Grand Prix at the Cannes Film Festival.
Before Buckley’s ascension, many (including me) speculated whether Reinsve could win, after the studio pulled off the win for Madison months prior. Her role has been described as more adult and mature in this family dramedy, leading an ensemble cast that includes Stellan Skarsgård and Elle Fanning. Yet, being the number two under Buckley only helps solidify the type of contender Value will prove to be; the reception indicates this to be a beloved, critical, and audience favorite.
Someone who’s returning in the same role is Cynthia Erivo in Wicked: For Good, as Elphaba. The first film was a cultural phenomenon, earning tons of money and garnering ten Oscar nominations. This second half of a two-part film hopes to not only end on a satisfying note, but inch much closer to Oscar gold, particularly for its performances. Even if For Good were to miss out on a Best Picture nomination, Erivo’s profile as Elphaba and her talents are too large to ignore, considering the proximity of release in November to Oscar voting, and having previous nominations for Actress.
Two-time winner Emma Stone reteams with Yorgos Lanthimos on Bugonia, a dark absurdist satire on conspiracy theorists and capitalist CEOs. Bugonia premiered at Venice to universal praise for Stone, as a cold, intense, and manic force clashing against the film’s leads. This would mark Stone’s fifth acting nomination, and overall third for a Lanthimos film. The two clearly have a seamless, magical relationship that brings out the best in each other, so another Actress nomination isn’t too far-fetched to consider.
What If They’re Their Film’s Only Nomination?
The 2025 Best Actress lineup was the first time all five nominees had a film in the Best Picture lineup since the 1978 Oscars, where all actress nominees’ films were nominated for Best Picture. Our first three slots will be occupied by actresses leading Best Picture contenders; after that, it may boil down to contenders, whose nominations will be the sole representation for their respective films, bolstered by critics’ awards and industry passion.
Rose Byrne received the best reviews and support for her emotional whirlwind of a performance in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. Since its premiere at the Sundance Film Festival, many critics and fans have lauded her work as something deserving of awards consideration. Byrne has won the Berlin Prize for Best Actress. While it doesn’t have a strong correlation to the Oscars, it signals the urgency to recognize an actress whose works have ranged from arthouse to mainstream comedies with an Oscar nomination. A24 should take a page from Paul Mescal’s lone nomination for Aftersun (2022) and implement a similar campaign centered around Byrne to recognize the film as a whole.
Searchlight recently acquired The Testament of Ann Lee, which immediately strengthens Amanda Seyfried’s performance as the leader of the Shakers’ Movement in Mona Fastvold’s newest film, fresh off her campaign for The Brutalist (2024). Seyfried is no stranger to playing real-life figures, having played Marion Davies in Mank (2020), which earned her a Best Supporting Actress nomination. Searchlight is a master campaigner, not just of a Best Picture contender (noted in my analysis), but in the last decade, five Best Actress winners came from films campaigned by Searchlight. (Emma Stone, Jessica Chastain, twice for Frances McDormand, and Olivia Coleman have won Best Actress Oscars.) Even though the reviews for Ann Lee weren’t the most ecstatic from critics, with audience reception more friendly to the historical epic, if any distributor can push it to awards success, it would be Searchlight.
It’s been years since a Luca Guadagnino film contended for Oscars, as 2017’s Call Me By Your Name remains the last Luca film nominated for any Oscars; last year’s Challengers and Queer came close to on-the-bubble nominations for various categories but ultimately failed. After The Hunt premiered at the Venice Film Festival to a mixed-to-negative reception for its drama on sexual misconduct in higher academia. However, initial reviews were positive of Julia Roberts‘ performance; it may be difficult to overcome the negative reception, and whether Amazon MGM will invest further into an awards campaign.
Another Amazon MGM contender that is being overlooked is Tessa Thompson in Hedda. Directed by Nia DaCosta and based on Henrik Ibsen’s play, the reviews from its TIFF premiere were positive, many commending Thompson’s performance. It will be up to the studio if they put forth a concerted effort for an Actress nomination; perhaps this could be supported by Critics Groups, aiding in manifesting a Thompson campaign.
Sydney Sweeney’s boxing biopic, Christy, which premiered at TIFF to lukewarm reactions, many credited Sweeney’s commitment to the physicality and life story of Christy Martin. Blackbear Pictures produced the film and is managing its distribution and awards campaign. Without a track record for their campaign efforts, it will be a huge hill for Sweeney to climb over, which many feel is in the long, tired, cliche lineage of boxing films.
Not for lack of trying, Mubi was extremely close to winning Moore the Oscar this past season, and at Cannes, they made their presence known for the biggest acquisition of the festival for acquiring Die, My Love. Jennifer Lawrence is no stranger to awards, having won for Silver Linings Playbook and received three additional acting nominations, yet Mubi’s decision to skip playing the film at the major Fall festivals calls into question their strategy for garnering Lawrence’s fourth Best Actress nomination. Whatever tricks they learned from their Substance campaign, they’re gonna need them to keep Lawrence a viable nominee.
Bubble Contenders and Chase Infiniti’s Oscar Chances
Searchlight is spearheading Bradley Cooper’s latest film, Is This Thing On?, in which Laura Dern could be back at the Oscars after winning Supporting Actress in 2020. Cooper’s last two films were big awards contenders, in which Lady Gaga and Carey Mulligan received Oscar nominations. If Is This Thing opens to rave reviews from its closing night screening at the New York Film Festival, Dern could benefit from being in a strong contender.
Variety published a slow-brewing campaign for Kate Hudson’s performance in Song Sung Blue. The film is a biographical musical drama, following Hudson and Hugh Jackman playing struggling musicians who find newfound success and romance playing as a Neil Diamond tribute band. The piece notes many industry insiders praising her performance as a return for Hudson in the shadow of her 25-year-old gap nomination for 2000’s Almost Famous. Focus Features is behind this film, but alongside Buckley and Stone’s campaigns, we will have to see the initial reactions and reviews from its AFI Fest premiere if Hudson can be a possible late-contender for Focus to manage additional responsibilities.
On Wednesday, October 8th, Variety dropped a major update in the awards race that Warner Bros. has confirmed they will run Chase Infiniti in lead actress for One Battle After Another. A newcomer onto the film scene, Infiniti plays Leonardo DiCaprio’s daughter, Willa, who is on the run as a deranged, militaristic Sean Penn chases after her. To say it’s a bold move is an understatement, as most predicted she would have to compete in the supporting actress category, alongside her co-stars, Teyana Taylor and Regina Hall.
This move signals not only WB’s fearlessness in maxing out on as many nominations as possible, but the strength of One Battle could propel Infiniti in the leagues dominated by established names. It also allows voters not to split their favorites amongst the supporting cast, lending an easier time for contenders like Taylor or Hall to avoid split favoritism. Infiniti has to be taken seriously. Consider this: if you’re a voter who loves One Battle, you vote for it to be nominated from eight to ten categories, why wouldn’t you consider Chase Infiniti, the beating heart and soul of the film, for Best Actress? For a film that is a top contender to win big at the Oscars, Infiniti’s performance is the biggest takeaway as far as a new discovery is concerned, and the passion and love could easily see her nominated, especially in a field where most potential nominees will be only their film’s nomination.
We may not get all five nominees from Best Picture contenders, but if a film as big as One Battle will campaign for Infiniti as a lead actress, you can’t ignore it simply because she’s a newcomer. She’s a newcomer who is pivotal to the rousing, exhilarating climax of a film that can win Best Picture.
Here are my October predictions for the 2026 Oscar nominations in Best Actress:
- Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
- Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
- Cynthia Erivo – Wicked: For Good
- Amanda Seyfried – The Testament of Ann Lee
- Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another
Alternates:
- Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
- Emma Stone – Bugonia
- Tessa Thompson – Hedda
- Julia Roberts – After The Hunt
- Jennifer Lawrence – Die, My Love
Analysis Courtesy of Amritpal Rai
Feature Image Credit to Focus Features via The Wrap