The 83rd Golden Globe Nominations are just around the corner (December 8th), and the awards race has never felt more in flux. Over the next few weeks, contenders will rise and fall by the tally of their nominations and the prizes they receive from critics’ groups. Even as 2024’s The Brutalist and Emilia Perez took the stage to win their respective Best Film Globes back on January 5th, Anora would go home empty-handed. Yet still, it went on to win five Oscars, including Best Picture, two months later. The awards race is a marathon, not a sprint. 

Last year’s ceremony paved the way for fringe contenders like I’m Still Here to nab a surprise Best Picture nomination after Fernanda Torres won the Best Actress in a Drama. The Globes also foreshadowed Perez’s 13 Oscar nominations, making history with 10 Globe Nominations as the industry embraced the divisive film. Of the six acting winners, three would go on to win their respective Oscars:  Adrien Brody, Zoe Saldaña, and Kieran Culkin. As the first televised awards show of the season, the Globes can hold serious sway over what Oscar voters will pay attention to. Narratives begin to take shape. 

I previously laid out how the voting body for the Globes represented a far more international flavor, since its membership increased the number of foreign press journalists to over 300, with “sixty percent being racially and ethnically diverse.” There are several high-profile international contenders, such as the Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident, the Grand Prix winner Sentimental Value, Park Chan-wook‘s No Other Choice, and the acclaimed The Secret Agent, vying for nominations under Neon’s distribution umbrella. Expect the Globes to fully embrace these films across various categories, such as Wagner Moura making a play for Best Drama Actor, with hopes of breaking into Best Film; Joachim Trier and Jafar Panahi getting Director nominations; Sentimental Value garnering four acting nominations for its ensemble; and No Other Choice showing strength in the Comedy categories. 

Last year, I swung big and predicted I’m Still Here to earn a Best Film nomination (I was a bit premature jumping on the bandwagon), while underestimating Coralie Fargeat’s direction for The Substance, which got a Best Director nomination. Payal Kapadia shocked everyone by breaking into the Director lineup with her film All We Imagine As Light, which received a nomination for Best Foreign Language Film. 

In the last two years, the group has focused on highlighting women directors, which is why my big swing this year is Kaouther Ben Hania’s Director nomination for The Voice of Hind Rajab. The film premiered at the Venice Film Festival to a rapturous response and won the Grand Jury Prize. Hania is already a celebrated filmmaker in her own right; Hind Rajab has earned high critical and audience scores that may be seen as a way for global journalists to commemorate the untold death toll inflicted on Gaza children. 

Still from ‘One Battle After Another’ via Warner Bros Studio

Paul Thomas Anderson’s blockbuster comedy One Battle After Another has positioned itself as the frontrunner for the Oscars, but its strength at the Globes will show how wide that acclaim can be. It hopes to earn several acting nominations and to win Best Director and Best Comedy/Musical Film. 

Another Warner Bros. contender, Sinners, hopes to make a showing in the drama categories, as its biggest threat for the Best Drama Globe, Hamnet, seems poised to earn Chloé Zhao her second Best Drama Film win. Yet, One Battle will face heavy competition from Marty Supreme, the newest comedy drama from Josh Safdie starring Timothée Chalamet, which has received high critical acclaim as the adult counterprogramming for the Christmas holiday. 

The biggest question remains in the Comedy/Musical category for Wicked: For Good. Last year’s Wicked earned four nominations, but For Good has lower critical and audience scores, as indicated by its weaker box-office staying power. Should it underperform by missing categories like Best Comedy/Musical or Cynthia Erivo for Comedy/Musical Actress, it could spell doom for its Oscar prospects. 

Outside the main contenders, Netflix hopes to solidify its awards slate with Frankenstein, Jay Kelly, and Train Dreams, as they’re always a formidable studio to max out on nominations. The Globes will showcase which of their films are gaining traction. 

Together with my awards colleagues Adam Patla, Owen Wilczek, Tate Fowler, and Jacob Diedenhofer, we’ll provide our collective predictions for the 83rd Golden Globes. In parentheses, we’ll note where we differ in who gets into the last few slots of each category, while the rest will be our areas of agreement.

Best Motion Picture – Drama

  1.  Hament
  2.  Sinners
  3.  Sentimental Value
  4.  Frankenstein
  5.  It Was Just an Accident 
  6.  Avatar: Fire and Ash (Adam, Owen) / Train Dreams (Paul, Jacob) / The Secret Agent (Tate)

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

      1. Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent

      2. Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
      3. Joe Egerton – Train Dreams

      4. Dwayne Johnson – The Smashing Machine (Adam, Paul, Owen, Jacob) /
          Will Arnett – Is This Thing On? (Tate, Jacob)

      5. Jeremy Allen White – Deliver Me From Nowhere (Adam, Paul, Owen, Tate)

      6. Oscar Isaac – Frankenstein (Owen, Paul, Jacob) / Daniel Day-Lewis – Anemone
        (Adam, Tate)

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

  1. Jessie Buckley – Hamnet 
  2. Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
  3. Jennifer Lawrence – Die My Love
  4. Tessa Thompson – Hedda
  5. Julia Roberts – After the Hunt (Adam, Paul, Owen, Tate) / Mariam Afshari – It Was Just an Accident (Jacob)
  6. Sydney Sweeney – Christy (Adam, Jacob) / Jodie Foster – A Private Life (Paul, Owen) / Laura Dern – Is This Thing On? (Tate) 

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

  1. One Battle After Another
  2. Marty Supreme
  3. Bugonia (Adam, Paul, Owen)
  4. Wicked: For Good
  5. No Other Choice (Paul, Owen, Tate, Jacob) / Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Adam) 
  6. Jay Kelly (Paul, Tate, Jacob) / The Testament of Ann Lee (Adam, Owen, Tate)

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

  1. Timothee Chalamet – Marty Supreme
  2. Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
  3. George Clooney – Jay Kelly
  4. Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
  5. Jesse Plemons – Bugonia (Adam, Paul, Owen, Jacob)
  6. Lee Byung-hun – No Other Choice (Paul, Owen, Tate, Jacob) / Daniel Craig – Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Adam, Tate) 

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

  1. Amanda Seyfried – The Testament of Ann Lee
  2. Cynthia Erivo – Wicked: For Good
  3. Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You
  4. Emma Stone – Bugonia
  5. Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another
  6. Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue (Adam, Paul, Owen, Tate) / Eva Victor – Sorry, Baby (Jacob) 

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

  1. Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
  2. Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value
  3. Paul Mescal – Hamnet
  4. Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
  5. Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another (Adam, Paul, Owen, Jacob)
  6. Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly (Paul, Owen, Jacob, Tate) / Delroy Lindo – Sinners (Adam, Tate)

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

  1. Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good
  2. Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another
  3. Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value
  4. Inga Ibsdotter Lileaas – Sentimental Value
  5. Odessa A’zion – Marty Supreme (Paul, Owen, Tate, Jacob) / Gwyneth Paltrow – Marty Supreme (Adam) 
  6. Amy Madigan – Weapons (Paul, Owen, Jacob) / Regina Hall – One Battle After Another (Adam, Tate) 

Best Director

  1. Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
  2. Chloe Zhao – Hamnet
  3. Ryan Coogler – Sinners
  4. Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
  5. Jafar Panahi – It Was Just An Accident
  6. Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme (Owen, Tate, Jacob) / Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein (Adam) / Kaouther Ben Hania – The Voice of Hind Rajab (Paul) 

Best Screenplay

  1. One Battle After Another
  2. Hamnet
  3. Sentimental Value 
  4. It Was Just an Accident
  5. Sinners
  6. Marty Supreme

Best Motion Picture – Non-English Language

  1. It Was Just an Accident
  2. The Secret Agent
  3. Sentimental Value
  4. No Other Choice
  5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Adam, Paul, Tate, Jacob) / Left-Handed Girl (Owen) 
  6. Sirat (Owen, Tate, Jacob) / Sound of Falling (Adam, Paul)

Best Motion Picture – Animated

  1. Kpop Demon Hunters
  2. Zootopia 2
  3. Arco
  4. Little Amelie or The Character of Rain
  5. Elio
  6. Scarlet (Adam, Tate, Jacob) / Ne Zha 2 (Paul, Owen)


Best Original Score

  1. Ludwig Göransson – Sinners
  2. Max Richter – Hamnet
  3. Johnny Greenwood – One Battle After Another
  4. Alexandre Desplat – Frankenstein 
  5. Daniel Lopatin – Marty Supreme 
  6. Daniel Blumberg – The Testament of Ann Lee (Adam, Jacob) / Nicholas Britell – Jay Kelly (Paul, Owen) / Hanz Zimmer – F1: The Movie (Tate)

Best Original Song

  1. Golden – Kpop Demon Hunters 
  2. I Lied to You – Sinners 
  3. The Girl in the Bubble – Wicked: For Good 
  4. The Last Time (I Seen the Sun) – Sinners (Adam, Paul, Tate, Jacob) / Dream As One – Avatar: Fire and Ash (Owen)
  5. No Place Like Home – Wicked: For Good (Adam, Owen, Jacob) / Train Dreams – Train Dreams (Paul) / Highest 2 Lowest – Highest 2 Lowest (Tate)
  6. Clothed by the Sun – The Testament of Ann Lee (Paul, Owen) / Relentless – Diane Warren: Relentless (Adam, Jacob) / Drive – F1: The Movie (Tate)

Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

  1. Wicked: For Good 
  2. F1: The Movie
  3. Zootopia 2 (Adam, Paul, Owen, Jacob) / The Conjuring: Last Rites (Tate)
  4. Superman (Paul, Owen, Tate, Jacob) / How to Train Your Dragon (Adam)
  5. Jurassic World Rebirth (Adam, Tate, Jacob) / Kpop Demon Hunters (Paul, Owen) 
  6. Lilo and Stitch (Adam, Paul, Jacob) / Avatar: Fire and Ash (Owen, Tate)
  7. Sinners (Paul, Owen, Tate) / A Minecraft Movie (Adam, Jacob)
  8. Weapons (Paul, Owen, Tate) / Ne Zha II (Adam, Jacob)

Article Courtesy of Amritpal Rai, Adam Patla, Owen Wilczek, Tate Fowler, and Jacob Diedenhofer

Feature Image Credit to Rich Polk/Penske Media via Getty Images