The 32nd Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards nominations for the film categories are imminent. One of the most significant precursors, as far as Hollywood industry guild awards are concerned, SAG often shines a spotlight on the pulse of the Academy’s largest voting branch, the Actors branch, as there is significant voter overlap. 

Last year, one of my fatal mistakes was underestimating Anora and overestimating Emilia Perez and Sing Sing, as Anora made it into Ensemble and Supporting Actor. At the same time, Perez missed a second Supporting Actress, and Sing Sing had a lone Best Actor nomination. Wicked and A Complete Unknown over-performed expectations by catapulting Jonathan Bailey and Monica Barbaro into their respective Supporting acting categories; Barbaro would land an Oscar nomination for Supporting Actress. 

The Best Ensemble nominees are correlated with how strong a film’s Best Picture chances are, sometimes matching both wins. Last year’s Ensemble nominees were the first time all five nominees received Best Picture nominations since the 21st SAG Awards. Since then, there are usually one or two Ensemble nominees that don’t land a Best Picture nomination. This is where populist, audience-friendly picks, such as The Color Purple (2023), House of Gucci (2021), and Crazy Rich Asians (2018), or films featuring a famous cast like Babylon (2022) or Bombshell (2019), can occupy. All of these films missed a Best Picture nomination.

Some of the biggest questions this year lie in whether an international film can land a spot, similar to what Perez accomplished. International films rarely receive recognition at the SAG Awards. Perez and Parasite (2019) remain the only international films to receive Ensemble nominations, the latter winning. All eyes are on Neon’s contenders, Sentimental Value and It Was Just an Accident, in pushing the ceiling that’s reflective to the International segment of the Academy. 

Below are what fellow Rolling Tape colleagues, Adam Patla, Owen Wilczek, and I are predicting for SAG’s Film nominations. Each of our names will be listed in parentheses to indicate our five predictive nominees for each category. 

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

  1. One Battle After Another (Adam, Owen, Paul)
  2. Sinners (Adam, Owen, Paul)
  3. Marty Supreme (Adam, Owen, Paul)
  4. Hament (Adam, Owen)
  5. Jay Kelly (Owen, Paul)
  6. Wicked: For Good (Adam)
  7. Weapons (Paul)

One Battle After Another and Sinners are the strongest bets for Ensemble nominations, followed by individual acting nominations in their respective films. Both films have demonstrated extraordinary power and gravity as 2025’s biggest awards contenders. Marty Supreme is a late-release that is dominating the box office for adult dramas, with critical acclaim mentioning its unconventional cast. 

Jay Kelly has been on the cusp of Best Picture talks all season, and while its sheen has waned, the big, sprawling ensemble filled with big-named actors is suitable to a SAG voting body that can be susceptible to populist fare.   

2024’s Wicked received five SAG nominations, a demonstration of the industry’s support for the film. However, its under-performance at Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes may signal fatigue with the franchise, especially since it is a sequel. It’s reminiscent of when Black Panther (2018) won the SAG Ensemble Award, yet its sequel, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022), missed an Ensemble nomination. Yet, the SAGs do favor musicals in general, as Dreamgirls (2006), Hairspray (2007), Nine (2009), and The Color Purple (2023) were nominated for Best Ensemble. 

My wild swing with Weapons is linked to how much of a box-office success it became for an original film, and its shortlisting for Best Casting at the Oscars — the story is structured like Magnolia (1999), which frames the film around six central characters with their own chapters. The story of how Weapons had a completely different cast for its central characters and had to start from scratch could endear itself to the SAG nominating committee. It also helps that one of its supporting actors, Amy Madigan, is looking primed for a Supporting Actress nomination. 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

  1. Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme (Adam, Owen, Paul)
  2. Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another (Adam, Owen, Paul)
  3. Michael B. Jordan – Sinners (Adam, Owen, Paul)
  4. Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon  (Adam, Owen, Paul)
  5. Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent (Adam)
  6. George Clooney – Jay Kelly (Owen)
  7. Joel Egerton – Train Dreams (Paul)


With the strength of One Battle After Another, Sinners, and Marty Supreme, we agree their leads will receive Lead Actor nominations. All three have dominated critics’ groups with wins; there’s no reason to believe they will miss with SAG. 

We also agree that, despite Blue Moon’s lack of a strong presence in Ensemble, Ethan Hawke’s performance has been widely acclaimed and has won him his fair share of awards. 

For our fifth picks, we splintered off into possible fringe contenders. Wagner Moura is benefiting from The Secret Agent’s dominance in International Feature. He has Critics’ Choice and Globe nominations. Moura is a member of SAG, having appeared in Hollywood productions — Dope Thief (2025),  Mr. & Mrs. Smith (2024), and Civil War (2024). This may help him overcome any bias from previous non-English language performances that failed to receive SAG nominations. (Think Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall or Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here, who are not SAG members and missed nominations, despite receiving Oscar nominations.)

George Clooney is an established star and could appeal to the broad, populist-leaning members who love the legacy of Clooney’s stardom and a film that is self-reflective on that movie star persona. I am picking Egerton from how much Train Dreams is rising within the awards race, and he’s received both Critics’ Choice and Globe nominations. Dwayne Johnson could be a surprise potential, as he was nominated at the Globes and received the best reviews of his career for his transformational work in The Smashing Machine. It also helps that his co-star, Emily Blunt, is looking strong for a Supporting Actress nomination, which can propel Johnson to a nomination. 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

  1. Jessie Buckley – Hamnet (Adam, Owen, Paul)
  2. Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You  (Adam, Owen, Paul)
  3. Emma Stone – Bugonia  (Adam, Paul, Owen)
  4. Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue (Owen, Paul)
  5. Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another (Paul, Owen)
  6. Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value (Adam)
  7. Cynthia Erivo – Wicked: For Good (Adam)

Except for Kate Hudson and Cynthia Erivo, every actress listed in our prediction received both a Critics’ Choice and a Globe nomination in their respective Actress categories. Yet with six slots at each ceremony, eliminating someone becomes difficult. Because Sentimental Value may have difficulty receiving an Ensemble nomination, Renate Reinsve could miss, especially for being a non-English language performance, as the SAGs normally don’t nominate international performances. 

Chase Infiniti’s chances hinge on the strength of One Battle as an awards contender, yet because she is a newcomer, more recognizable names may overshadow her. Erivo and Hudson both missed out on nominations at the Critics’ Choice, yet Song Sung Blue is a Christmas hit, with much acclaim for her performance. Erivo is a four-time SAG nominee, and depending on how strong Wicked: For Good performs, she could find herself nominated again for her role as Elphaba. 

Jacob Elordi as The Creature in ‘Frankenstein’ via Netflix

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

  1. Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another (Adam, Owen, Paul)
  2. Sean Penn – One Battle After Another (Adam, Owen, Paul)
  3. Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly (Adam, Owen, Paul)
  4. Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value (Adam, Owen, Paul)
  5. Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein  (Paul, Adam)
  6. Paul Mescal – Hamnet (Owen)

This may be the least complicated category. Between Globes and Critics’ Choice, as all six contenders received Supporting Actor nominations. Benicio del Toro has won the most prizes in awards season so far, while Sean Penn benefits from being the main antagonist in a top-tier contender for his brilliant performance. After Jacob Elordi won Critics’ Choice, it seems all but certain that he will be nominated for Frankenstein. 

If Sentimental Value misses every other category, I would give Skarsgard a slight edge for a nomination from his exceptional career rooted in Hollywood classics — projects like The Pirates of the Caribbean franchise, Good Will Hunting (1997), and recently in Andor (2022) and the Dune franchise. He’s a classic veteran character actor who has more name recognition and clout, despite being in a non-English language film.

Paul Mescal has surprisingly underperformed with Critics’ groups, often left out while his co-star, Jessie Buckley, is nominated (or winning). It’s a subtle, understated performance, and perhaps that may not be enough for SAG voters. He’s never been nominated for works such as Normal People (2020) and Aftersun (2022), and perhaps that style may not speak loudly to SAG voters. Some years, there are surprising omissions for actors who seem “safe” for a nomination, such as Guy Pearce missing for The Brutalist (2024) or Mark Ruffalo for Poor Things (2023). 

Even though none of us are predicting him, do not underestimate Delroy Lindo. If Sinners does indeed over-perform, Lindo would be perfect for a Supporting Actor nomination. He has been doing great Q&As and has spoken on behalf of the ensemble, which won Best Casting and Ensemble. This was a way for the film’s campaign to remind voters not to neglect him as a contender. His character, Delta Slim, is tragic and hilarious, and can be endearing to SAG voters in a way his prior awards contender, Da 5 Bloods (2020), couldn’t. 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

  1. Emily Blunt – The Smashing Machine (Adam, Owen, Paul)
  2. Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good (Adam, Owen, Paul)
  3. Amy Madigan – Weapons (Adam, Owen, Paul)
  4. Teyana Taylor –  One Battle After Another (Adam, Owen, Paul)
  5. Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value (Adam)
  6. Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners (Paul, Owen)

Ariana Grande, Amy Madigan, Teyana Taylor, and Emily Blunt look strong to receive nominations. While Blunt missed a Critics’ Choice nomination, all four received Globe nominations. And Blunt is very beloved by the SAG voting body, having won for Supporting Actress in A Quiet Place (2018) and received four additional nominations. The question remains as to how we determine our fifth slot. 

Owen and I are banking on the strength of Sinners over-performing, especially as Wunmi Mosaku has won significant awards for her performance and received a Critics’ Choice nomination. Think last year, in the context of how Wicked over-performed and got Jonathan Bailey a Supporting Actor nomination, or Monica Barbaro getting Supporting Actress for A Complete Unknown. Sinners could receive more nominations than expected, thanks to passionate love for the film overall. 

Elle Fanning could receive her first nomination, yet that is dependent on how well Sentimental Value is perceived by SAG members. Being the only American presence in the Norwegian family drama could help her stand out. Inga Ibssotter Lilleaas has received significant notices for her performances in Sentimental Value, yet she will be at a disadvantage for being a native Norwegian actress and may suffer from vote splitting with her co-lead, Elle Fanning. A similar fate may happen to the supporting actress contenders in Marty Supreme (Odessa A’zion and Gwyneth Paltrow).  

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

  1. F1 The Movie (Adam, Owen, Paul)
  2. Mission Impossible – The Final Reckoning (Adam, Owen, Paul)
  3. One Battle After Another (Adam, Owen, Paul)
  4. Sinners (Adam, Owen)
  5. Superman (Paul, Owen)
  6. Frankenstein (Paul)
  7. Wicked: For Good (Adam)

Sinners and One Battle After Another may not scream “best stunt performances,” but based on SAG’s past history, the organization will recognize even the most normal of stunts accomplished in a SAG favorite. In One Battle’s case, it features numerous car chases and crashes that will solidify a nomination. Mission Impossible films have a great track record getting into this category, with Mission Impossible – Dead Reckoning (2023) winning this category. 

Since the 23rd SAG Awards, at least one superhero film will receive a nomination. Superman is the highest-grossing superhero film of the year, and features many stunts involving physical action. Wicked landed a stunt nomination last year and may get another nomination for the second half of Wicked. I’m taking a long shot prediction for Frankenstein, as a lot of the action the Monster does is exemplary work of stunt actors being thrown by wirework.

Analysis Courtesy of Amritpal Rai and The Rolling Tape Team

Feature Image Credit to Warner Bros.