Every year at the Oscars, the Best Actress category turns into an absolute nailbiter, leaving pundits switching their predictions up until the last minute. Whether it’s Demi vs. Mikey, Lily vs. Emma, or Cate vs. Michelle, the Best Actress race rarely emerges as one that is easily called at the top of the season. This upcoming year looks like it’ll be no different, with a competitive slate of leading ladies on the horizon that could contend for the prize.

First and foremost, we have the return of Cynthia Erivo in Wicked: For Good. Now a three-time nominee (twice in Best Actress and once in Best Original Song), the actress was nominated for the first part of the highly anticipated adaptation of the hit Broadway musical. While there’s no doubt she’ll bring the same caliber of performance to part two, the question remains as to whether or not the Academy will nominate her (and her co-star Ariana Grande) for playing the same character in back-to-back years. If For Good is received as well as its predecessor, Erivo’s nomination seems highly likely, given the overall industry love for Wicked and her showstopping rendition of “Defying Gravity” at last year’s ceremony.

Erivo in ‘Wicked: For Good’ Trailer; Universal Studios via Empire

Another highly anticipated release coming this fall after a splashy Cannes debut is Sentimental Value. After winning the Grand Prix and being picked up by Neon, we can anticipate a robust awards campaign that will bring star Renate Reinsve along for the ride. 

Sentimental Value sees the reunion of writer-director Joachim Trier and Reinsve after their celebrated collaboration on The Worst Person in the World (2021). While the film was nominated for Original Screenplay, Reinsve was overlooked in the Actress category. This hasn’t deterred Reinsve, though; she’s since gone on to appear in major titles like Different Man (2024), Armand (2024), and Presumed Innocent (2024), becoming a major force onscreen. If nominated for Sentimental Value, it would be Reinsve’s first nomination.

Additionally, this year could potentially see the return of several previous winners to the category. 

Lynne Ramsay’s fifth feature, Die, My Love, received positive reviews out of its Cannes debut, with near-unanimous praise for Jennifer Lawrence’s performance. The film centers on Lawrence’s Grace slipping into psychological distress after becoming a mother; undoubtedly, Ramsay’s film will be an excellent showcase for Lawrence to continue pushing and solidifying herself as one of the best of her generation. Lawrence won for performance in Silver Linings Playbook (2012) and was last nominated for Joy (2015).

Lawrence in ‘Die, My Love;’ Cannes Film Festival via BBC

 

2025 also sees yet another collaboration between Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone with Bugonia. Stone plays a CEO kidnapped by two men who think she’s an alien sent to destroy Earth. While the premise sounds absurd, Lanthimos and Stone constantly prove that they can take weirder subject matter and make Oscar magic, evidenced by her Supporting Actress nomination for The Favourite (2018) and second Oscar win for Poor Things (2023).  

Another heavyweight is Julia Roberts, who stars in Luca Guadagnino’s latest drama, After the Hunt. Roberts plays a college professor dealing with her past after her colleague is accused of assault by a student. Roberts hasn’t been nominated since 2014’s August: Osage County, so this could be a welcome return for the Hollywood titan. 

We also have two previous Supporting Actress nominees looking to make their first Lead Actress plays with Jessie Buckley in Hamnet and Amanda Seyfried in The Testament of Ann Lee. Both films are slated to make a festival run this fall (Hament at TIFF and Ann Lee at Venice), signifying an awards push post-debut.

Speaking of festival runs, there are a few potential first-time nominees attached to films with festival debuts. 

Eva Victor’s Sorry, Baby stunned audiences at Sundance, immediately being acquired by A24 for a summer debut. Victor received unanimous praise for their work both behind and in front of the camera. One major hurdle to overcome will be A24’s muted summer rollout for the film. 

Also coming out of Sundance is If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, starring Rose Byrne. After Sundance, the film went on to premiere in competition at the Berlin Film Festival with Byrne taking home the Silver Bear for Best Leading Performance. The film sees Byrne, a consistent Hollywood presence, take center stage with a daring performance.

Last but certainly not least is Tessa Thompson in Hedda. Nia DaCosta’s latest is set to premiere at TIFF. The film, based on Henrik Ibsen’s play, sees Thompson as Hedda Gabler. Thompson received Oscar buzz for 2021’s Passing but was unfortunately overlooked. A nomination for Hedda would be a long-overdue nomination for an actress who has consistently selected a wide array of interesting work.

Thompson in ‘Hedda;’ Amazon MGM Studios via Yahoo

While there is a long way to go before we have any semblance of a frontrunner, Best Actress is already looking to be a highly competitive category with a variety of dynamic performances. The potential lineup could skew more in favor of newcomers or see exclusively previous nominees and winners. There is also a very real possibility of the final lineup looking completely different. Given that most of these films haven’t been seen by anyone, a lot of nomination discussion is purely speculative and will shift given how these films fare with audiences and critics upon release. 

Make sure to follow us as award season unfolds to see our coverage. Here are my August predictions for the 2026 Best Actress:

  1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
  2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
  3. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love
  4. Emma Stone, Bugonia
  5. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

Alternates:

  1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
  2. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
  3. Tessa Thompson, Hedda
  4. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
  5. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby

Analysis Courtesy of Adam Patla

Feature Image Credit to Mike Coppola via The Hollywood Reporter