One of the most important precursors in the awards season is the Screen Actors Guild of America. Encompassing actors in film and television, the guild casts a wide net of performances that are on top of voters’ minds. Usually, populist films with recognizable names get nominated by the guild. This year presents an interesting wrinkle in the season, as the awards juggernaut, Emilia Pérez is looking to replicate the Ensemble nomination Parasite (2019) garnered, plus potentially netting individual acting nominations.
They don’t always nominate ensembles or performances from international films. Last year’s Sandra Hüller failed to get a SAG nomination for Anatomy of a Fall (2023), yet was successful enough by her film being competitive in numerous categories and netting a Globe, CCA, and BAFTA nominations, ultimately being recognized by the Academy.
We are also looking into contenders who could be their film’s only awards representation. As some performances could be slipping off the awards radar (due to their film falling in overall strength), the guild boosts and reminds awards voters of fringe contenders on the hunt for an Oscar nomination.
For Awards Tape, below I predict the nominees for the 31st Screen Actors Guild Film Awards. I lay out a top five of executed nominees, followed by alternate picks that have the potential to surprise and show up on nomination morning. These predictions are based on what award precursors have come before, conversations had with my fellow Rolling Tape colleagues on our Awards Tape episodes and a historic understanding of what the guild tends to nominate.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
It’s quite tricky to determine what type of ensemble film gets nominated. Netflix has received seven SAG Ensemble nominations for their awards films, beginning in 2015. Perez is the biggest contender they’ve had in quite some time, and its diverse international cast (similar to Parasite) can help it garner a nomination.
Populist films like Wicked have also benefited from Ensemble nominations (Black Panther, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Oppenheimer have won). Wicked has proven to be the most acclaimed and talked-about contender in the awards race.
A Complete Unknown and Conclave boosts the most respectable slate of recognizable actors (young and old) that appeal to the middle-brow sensibilities of the guild. Sing Sing’s trajectory needs an Ensemble nomination to keep its awards chances alive. Should it miss, it may be destined to have a poor showing come Oscar nomination morning. Yet, A24 is a formidable campaigner, and even in the most sparse circumstances, they can push their awards films to an Ensemble nomination.
Other possible alternative nominations include Anora, The Piano Lesson, and Saturday Night.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
- Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
- Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
- Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
- Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
- Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice
Brody seems poised for his second SAG nomination, twenty-two years after his first nomination with The Pianist (2002). After winning the Globe, and the film becoming a Best Picture contender, Brody looks to be winning his first SAG award. Like Brody, Chalamet, Domingo, and Fiennes received Globe and CCA nominations and have appeared on the BAFTA Longlists. These four actors have been in The Rolling Tape Actor consensus since our Acting predictions episode for Awards Tape.
The fifth slot can yield a great number of nominees. Sebastian Stan recently won the Globe award in the Musical/Comedy category for A Different Man (2024). This may help support his chances for a more traditional, baity biopic as playing Donald Trump in The Apprentice. (A role he was also nominated for at the Globes in Drama Actor.) It’s a flexible enough slot that can accommodate a recognizable working actor such as Stan, who’s known for playing the Winter Soldier in the MCU. The biggest hurdle for Stan is playing such a controversial figure that feels more on peoples’ minds with the election results that voters may feel dismayed from watching a biopic of Donald Trump.
Other possible acting nominations include Hugh Grant for Heretic and Daniel Craig for Queer.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
- Demi Moore – The Substance
- Mikey Madison – Anora
- Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
- Karla Sofia Gascón – Emilia Pérez
- Angelina Jolie – Maria
After a major win at the Golden Globes, Demi Moore has taken the lead as the frontrunner for Best Actress. Her performance has been the most acclaimed of her career, and the film continues its awards takeover, recently nabbing eleven BAFTA longlist mentions. Her speech was highlighted as being the best of the night, as she acknowledged her decades of career work but never being taken seriously as an actress.
Madison retains the most wins amongst critics groups, and Anora is still a Best Picture contender in the race—her nomination feels secured. Erivo is looking to gain her second SAG nomination, her previous being Harriet (2024), and with the popularity and embrace of Wicked, she looks to benefit from the wave of support.
Angeline Jolie needs this nomination to keep herself relevant in the awards conversation. After losing the Drama Actress Globe to Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here ( being omitted from the BAFTA longlist), her awards success will live or die with a SAG nomination. If Jolie’s stardom and portrayal of opera singer, Maria Callas, can’t get the approval of her peers within SAG, it will be a miracle for her to receive a nomination.
Torres is not expected to gain traction with the guild, as they’re less inclined to nominate non-English language performances (The last SAG Best Actress nominee for an international film was Marion Cotillard in Jacques Audiard’s Rust and Bone (2012).) Speaking of an Audiard film, this is where Karla Sofia Gascón can (hopefully) break that streak and net a nomination. Starting with her Best Actress win at Cannes, Gascón has remained the face of the campaign, highlighting the importance of a Trans actress being part of the awards conversation and a film embraced by the Industry.
Other actresses that could land a nomination include Kate Winslet for Lee, Nicole Kidman for Babygirl, and Amy Adams for Nightbitch. All three have been nominated countless times. Kidman has 15 nominations and 1 win; Winslet has 13 nominations and 4 wins; Adams has 10 nominations and 1 win. I have them out due to how incredibly competitive Best Actress has proven to be among the many acclaimed contenders. What all three leading ladies lack is a film that can compete in other categories. With their films not likely to gain other Oscar nominations outside of their performances, it becomes difficult for their performances to cross over. But they are legendary artists with a racing acclaim that their stature can certainly lend one of them a SAG nomination.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
- Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
- Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
- Denzel Washington – Gladiator II
- Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
- Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Culkin continues his dominating sweep for A Real Pain, as his Globe win cements his position as the contender to beat. Pearce, Norton, and Washington (alongside Culkin) have Globe and CCA nominations and mentions on the BAFTA longlists. The fifth slot is entirely dependent on Sing Sing can rally a comeback and manage to overperform with this guild, as A24’s complicated release strategy has kept the film’s visibility low that it nearly blanked with Globe nominations and received three mentions on the BAFTA longlists.
Strong feels like a safe pick for the guild, coming off his finish on the popular Succession (2018). With co-star Stan feeling likely for a nomination, Strong’s dynamic relationship in The Apprentice is the highlight. Strong also received a Globe nomination and a BAFTA longlist mention.
Other possible alternate nominations include Clarence Maclin for Sing Sing, Yura Borisov for Anora, or Stanley Tucci for Conclave.
The hardest cut for me was Maclin. While I have Sing Sing getting into Actor and Ensemble, Maclin may suffer due to low name recognition against Hollywood talent who have built-in clout and performances. A similar situation with Borisov being an unknown actor in the industry, as well as having more appeal with international voters will fare him better with BAFTA and Oscar voters due to their memberships. Tucci can benefit by becoming a coattail nominee, yet his campaign prospects have failed to materialize a nomination at a notable place, outside of being mentioned on the BAFTA longlist.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
- Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez
- Ariana Grande – Wicked
- Margaret Qualley, The Substance
- Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson
- Selena Gomez – Emilia Pérez
Fresh off from winning the Golden Globe for Supporting Actress, Saldaña looks poised for a nomination, alongside her fellow nominees, Grande and Qualley (both of whom garnered CCA nominations and BAFTA Longlist mentions).
SAG has always been friendlier to August Wilson film adaptions, with Fences (2016) and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (2020) receiving four individual acting nominations across both films. Deadwyler’s best chance at any Oscar traction will have to come from SAG, having just a CCA nomination to boot her Oscar chances.
I go out on a limb to predict Gomez for the fifth slot. Due to how popular Perez is proving to be this awards season, and with both the Globe nomination and BAFTA longlist mention, she can benefit from an acting coattail nomination. She also was named a recipient of the Cannes Best Actress winner, alongside her co-stars.
Other actresses that could land a supporting nomination are Isabella Rossellini for Conclave and Felicity Jones for The Brutalist. My biggest omission is having Isabella Rossellini missing, possibly due to this guild not recognizing performances with limited screen time in the past. Judd Hirsh and Judi Dench, similar older veteran actors with limited screen time in Best Picture contenders (whose films made SAG Best Ensemble nominations), failed to get supporting actor nominations.
Jones has had a confusing awards campaign. A previous nominee for The Theory of Everything (2014), Jones has the potential to be nominated. However, her male co-stars have gotten the most acclaim and she hasn’t received the same amount of notice from critics groups. Jones missed CCA, yet has a Globe nomination and a mention on the longlist. This may be a performance that may or may not come across with a SAG voting body.
The 31st Screen Actors Guild Awards will air live on Netflix on Sunday, Feb. 23, 2025.
Article Courtesy of Amritpal Rai
Feature Image Courtesy of The Hollywood Reporter; ‘Oppenheimer’ wins 2024 SAG for Outstanding Performance by Cast