The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences hands out 23 gold-plated statues once a year, and as the biggest night in the marathon that is the film awards season, effectively beginning in late November and running through mid-March (March 10th, 2024 this year to be exact), the Oscars Ceremony is one typically filled with a variety of emotions, broken predictions, and questionable decision-making from AMPAS, the foremost voting body for the highest honor in Hollywood.
While the Oscars are a night for celebration, and many nominations will certainly deserve praise, the Academy is also infamous for its most questionable decisions. If you’ve ever ended the night scratching your head after all your hopes and dreams for the biggest spotlight in film led to nothing but disappointment, and you begin to channel Dazed and Confused’s Wooderson, thinking to yourself, “Well, it’d be a lot cooler if they did…” then you’ve come to the right place. Two years ago, in an unofficial Twitter format, I launched what has now become an annual column listing 20 things the Academy could do on nomination morning, ranging from the likely to the impossible and everything in between that would significantly boost their cool factor.
In 2022, 7/20 (35%) came true:
1. Jessie Buckley was nominated for Best Supporting Actress in The Lost Daughter
2. Ryusuke Hamaguchi was nominated for Best Director for Drive My Car
3. Drive My Car was nominated for Best Picture
4. House of Gucci was blanked for above-the-line nominations
5. Adam McKay was not nominated for Best Director for Don’t Look Up
6. Kristen Stewart was nominated for Best Lead Actress in Spencer
7. Flee became the first film to be nominated for Best Animated Feature, Best Documentary, and Best International Feature
In 2023, 9/20 (45%) came true.
- Everything Everywhere All at Once was enshrined as the film of the year by overperforming in nominations and winning Best Picture.
- “Naatu Naatu” was nominated for Best Original Song and performed live on the show (and won the Oscar!)
- Michelle Yeoh became the first Asian American woman to win Best Actress.
- The entire Best Actor lineup was composed of first-time nominees, with Paul Mescal filling the fifth wild card slot.
- Paul Mescal was nominated for Best Actor (see above).
- International films made nomination appearances outside of Best International Feature (although in limited fashion with a sole nomination for Bardo outside of the category’s winner).
- More than one Asian American woman was nominated in Best Supporting Actress (Stephanie Hsu and Hong Chau).
- Brian Tyree Henry celebrated a year full of scene-stealing supporting work with an Oscar nomination.
- Andrea Riseborough’s last-minute grassroots campaign ended in a nomination (with the asterisk of replacing Viola Davis and Danielle Deadwyler).
With a two-year sample size of an average of 40%, the coolness rate is on a positive slope. Congrats, Academy, you’re almost halfway cool! Going into a third year, this remains the completely subjective and arbitrary standard by which we will have to judge the upcoming nominations. This rate is, of course, relative to the scale of likelihood by which the list is determined, but the twenty suggestions are determined with a built-in range of possibility that hopefully will even the slate year-to-year.
Here is the third annual pre-nomination report on “20 Things the Academy Would Do If They Were Cool,” ranked loosely in order of likelihood from most to least likely to occur.
1. Nimona Overcomes All Obstacles
After being delayed multiple times through COVID and effectively canceled when Blue Sky Studios was shut down, Nimona eventually managed to find a home at Netflix. Despite being almost killed by the Mouse, the film has become one of the most beloved animated fixtures of the year from critics and fans alike for its LGBTQ+ representation, creative animation, and cast voice work. To overcome this array of obstacles and find its way to the Oscars would be one of the coolest comeback stories.
2. A24 Enters Twice into Best Picture for the Second Year in a Row
With a Best Picture appearance for The Whale and a win for Everything Everywhere All at Once, A24 held 20% of the top award lineup in 2023. The boutique independent distributor is in a position to potentially repeat that success once again, with Past Lives and The Zone of Interest both making the PGA list. Although not in a likely position to topple the major Picture contenders, A24’s staying power in awards season is taking a positive step toward greater year-to-year consistency after their massive haul in 2023.
3. Ben Affleck Shoots an ‘Air’ Ball
Few would deny that Original Screenplay has proven to hold the weaker overall awards pedigree of the two writing categories this year. While there is nothing inherently wrong about Ben Affleck’s Jordan brand biography, it feels incredibly safe and uninspired to make the cut for the five best ‘original’ screenplays of the year. See #3 for one of many more inspiring replacements.
4. Asteroid City Makes an Alien Landing in a Nomination Slot
In order to avoid the second straight blank for Wes Anderson for feature film work (he will be nominated for The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar in Animated Short), we’ll likely be forced to look to the craft categories. Coming off a surprise blanking for The French Dispatch in 2022, the question remains whether the Academy has begun to take for granted the attention to detail in categories such as Production Design and Costume Design that shine in Anderson’s latest work. With the Original Screenplay remaining fluid, however, the symmetrical auteur’s script has the potential to overperform above the line as well.
5. Celine Song Breaks Through the Mount Rushmore of Directors
The first-time director burst onto the scene at Sundance 2023 and hasn’t looked back while picking up critical acclaim throughout the entire calendar year into awards season. However, in a director category stacked with Academy darlings and filmmaking pedigrees that began before Song was even born, she is hitting a gauntlet of names that will make her appearance difficult to predict. Nonetheless, an overperformance for Past Lives on the back of critical passion would be an uber-cool move from the Academy.
6. Netflix ‘Conducts’ a Successful Campaign for…May December
Maestro has been poised all year to be Netflix’s primary campaign, with potential nominations in as many as 7-10 categories. In critics’ eyes, however, it may not have even been the best film on their slate. May December won’t garner the below-the-line attention of Bradley Cooper’s Leonard Bernstein black-and-white biopic, but the trio of performances at the center of Todd Haynes’s satirical dark comedy from Charles Melton, Julianne Moore, and Natalie Portman are more than deserving of recognition. At least 1/3 would be cool, but more would be cooler!
7. Joe Hisaishi is (finally) Recognized in Original Score
The longtime Hayao Miyazaki composer has put together an illustrious career in musical composition, but despite the animation master’s breakthroughs, in the Academy’s eyes, Hisaishi has never joined the party for his original music. With The Boy and the Heron as one of the last potential opportunities in his career, now is the time for the Academy to recognize someone who is long overdue.
8. Glenn Howerton Revives the Blackberry out of Bankruptcy
Although IFC Films, who acquired the rights to Matt Johnson’s Blackberry back in September of 2022, has had little success in the market of major awards, critical passion would deem Glenn Howerton’s take on Jim Balsillie’s growth-at-all-costs mentality through the rise and fall of the first smartphone one of the coolest possible nominations of the year. A wild card selection for Brian Tyree Henry snuck through into this category last cycle, so don’t count out the corporate exec.
9. The Iron Claw(s) its Way into a Nomination
Despite any late-breaking critical success for the end-of-the-year release detailing the true story of the infamous Von Erich family, Sean Durkin’s film hasn’t picked up significant industry awards attention despite a strong script and even stronger lead performance from Zac Efron. If The Iron Claw can wrestle up a nomination, we’ll all get to see more clips of bulked-up Efron, and that would be hot…uh, I mean cool.
10. Action Franchises Find their First Academy Awards Action
Mission Impossible and John Wick, and eleven collective films between their franchises that feature Tom Cruise and Keanu Reeves, respectively throwing themselves into bigger and bolder stunts with each respective iteration. Between those eleven films, however, are zero Oscar nominations. With John Wick: Chapter 4 missing the shortlists entirely, it will be up to Mission Impossible–Dead Reckoning (Part One?) to land in either Sound or Visual Effects categories to end this drought.
11. Are You There God? It’s Me, Oscar-Nominated Rachel McAdams
One of the most beloved coming-of-age stories of 2023 came from Kelly Fremon Craig and the first filmed adaptation of a Judy Blume novel. Abby Ryder Fortson leads the charge in a heartwarming and honest depiction of a teenage girl navigating sexuality, identity, and religion in a timeless way, but McAdams often steals the show with her kind and endearing depiction of Barbara Simon. Her only nomination came in 2016, but this year, she could double that tally.
12. All of Us Strangers Makes All of Us Happy
Andrew Haigh’s direction of All of Us Strangers is a feat that should not be a stranger to the nomination lineup. Featuring one of the best male lead performances of the year from Andrew Scott (who was head-scratchingly snubbed on his home turf at the BAFTA’s), the poignant and emotionally affecting portrait of grief has opportunities at a fringe nomination in Lead Actor and Adapted Screenplay. Although both categories are crowded, not letting this film go back to its childhood home empty-handed would be a cool decision.
13. Aki Kaurismäki Appears Once Again at the Oscars for Finland
Although the Finnish auteur has a complicated history with the Academy (his 2002 film The Man Without a Past was nominated before Kaurismäki himself boycotted the ceremony), this year’s submission, Fallen Leaves, is another worthy entry to potentially repair the relationship. The Jarmusch-core tragicomedy garnered lead actress Alma Pöysti a surprise Golden Globes nomination, which could translate to greater success for the film.
14. Francis Fisher and Friends Get Behind Teyana Taylor and/or Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor
Coming off a year where a ‘grassroots campaign’ at the final hour catapulted Andrea Riseborough into an Oscar slot and AMPAS rule changes were swiftly enacted, all eyes were on Fisher and crew for what she may end up getting behind in 2024. If there is anyone in the Best Actress field who could’ve used last-minute support, it would be the likes of Teyana Taylor in A Thousand and One and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor in Origin. Although 2023’s Best Actress field is one of the deepest we have seen in years, both films are anchored by the powerhouse performances from their respective leads in timely narratives that deserve more widespread recognition. On the heels of questionable misses from two black lead actresses, either of these contenders would be fit for nomination redemption.
15. The Origin(s) of an Oscar Nomination
NEON had a unique distribution approach to Ava Duvernay’s hybrid adaptation of Isabel Wilkerson’s ‘Caste: The Origins of Our Discontents’ holding its wide release until the week before Oscar nominations. Nevertheless, Duvernay establishes herself as one of the most prominent and singular cinematic voices of her generation with the broad and ambitious adaptation that blends historical narrative with personal drama in a mutually provocative way.
16. Godzilla Minus One goes Plus One in its Nomination Tally
The world’s most famous radioactive giant lizard doesn’t have a great track record at the Oscars, but Takashi Yamazaki’s recent take blew away audiences and found many spots on best-of-the-year lists. Grappling with a post-war Japan setting, Godzilla Minus One proved that Oppenheimer wasn’t the only WWII film to make atomic waves in 2023. A nomination for Best Visual Effects would be its sole shot, but it would be well-earned for its earth-shattering depiction of Godzilla and its devastating path through Japan.
17. Zazie Beets and Jack Quaid Read Sandra Hüller’s Name…Twice
If there is any single performer who propelled themselves into the limelight of Hollywood in 2023, it was Sandra Hüller. The German actress navigated at least four languages in her two roles between Anatomy of a Fall (leading) and The Zone of Interest (supporting), the first and second-place films at Cannes nearly a year ago. Since that jury decision in the south of France, Hüller’s presence has traveled the world, and her performances have left widespread impressions that could result in a rare double nomination.
18. An Oscar Nomination for Animated Feature isn’t Just a Robot Dream(s)
Another peculiar film and release strategy on NEON’s slate in 2024 is Robot Dreams, a dialogue-less animated feature that was initially launched at Cannes last summer. In a year where Disney has shown signs of weakness for a category they have held by the throat for the past decade, the Academy may be willing to look to more experimental options such as this film from Pablo Berger.
19. Beau isn’t Afraid of Academy Attention
Ari Aster’s Beau is Afraid and swirling odyssey of anxiety has been called a Jewish Lord of the Rings, but it’s certainly not on track to match Peter Jackson’s nomination haul. It was, however, shortlisted for Best Makeup and Hairstyling, which would put one of the most bizarre films of 2023 in the Oscar lineup. That would be a nomination that even J.R.R. Tolkien would think was cool.
20. The Monk and the Gun and Pawo Choyning Dorji’s Second Oscar Nomination
In 2019, Bhutanese filmmaker Pawo Choyning Dorji had to spend an entire year awaiting the Academy to simply recognize the existence of his country’s submission committee, forcing him to delay his entry for Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom. It turns out it became a yak in the Best International Feature category. Dorji is back once again honoring the culture of Bhutan with The Monk and the Gun, and it would be mighty cool to see Bhutan’s micro film industry make it back to the biggest stage in film awards.
Article Courtesy of Danny Jarabek
Feature Image Credit to TheGoldKnight.com
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