There was a moment at the 31st SAG awards when Timothée Chalamet won Best Actor for his Bob Dylan music biopic, A Complete Unknown. For a moment, it seemed possible for the young talent to win the Oscar over the frontrunner, Adrien Brody. It ultimately proved not to be the case, as Brody won his second Oscar and Chalamet would not beat Brody’s record for being the youngest Best Actor winner in Oscar history. This year, Chalamet may find himself at odds with another contender looking to win his second Oscar, Leonardo DiCaprio, for One Battle After Another.


A Chalamet Christmas and the ‘Top Three?’

Chalamet’s Marty Supreme seemed to skip the fall festivals until a surprise secret screening was announced at the New York Film Festival on October 6th. Originally heading straight for a Christmas holiday slot, similarly to Complete Unknown, A24 decided to springboard the film, and specifically Chalamet’s campaign, with a loud bang. Social reactions from journalists, awards pundits, and audiences heaped praise on Josh Safdie’s direction, the sprawling nature of this underdog sports drama, and Chalamet’s intense, enveloping performance. For what is A24’s most expensive film, this is certainly meant to be a commercial play for what seems to be a crowd-pleasing populist film. With the help of box office receipts, it will not only further solidify Chalamet as one of our youngest movie stars but also elevate his industry status, potentially paving the way for an Oscar win. 

While some may feel Chalamet is overdue for a win, he will only be thirty by the time the new year begins, with two nominations under his belt. Since 2010, if you calculate the average age of Best Actor winners, it’s usually close to being fifty (or forty-nine to be accurate). There is still a reluctance to award a young actor, like Chalamet, in their prime (just look at how long it took for DiCaprio to win a decade ago for The Revenant). If Supreme is a strong across-the-board Oscar contender, there’s no doubt that Chalamet would be within reach of winning. 

DiCaprio may find himself winning his second due to the strong contender status One Battle will have throughout the season. It’s a funny, physically-comedic, zany performance that contains tremendous pathos for playing an ex-revolutionary brain-drugged hippie, saving his daughter from a militant government enemy. It also helps that One Battle is (so far) the strongest to win Best Picture. 

Speaking of musical biopics, we have one this year in the form of Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, starring Jeremy Allen White as the titular Bruce Springsteen. Chalamet, Bradley Cooper, and Austin Butler have recently garnered nominations for playing musicians, with some coming close to winning; Rami Malek remains the most recent winner for Bohemian Rhapsody (2018). Funnily enough, Springsteen is directed by Scott Cooper, whose last Oscar-type film was Crazy Heart (2009). No doubt the film rests on White’s shoulders, and it will be a major break for the young actor, who’s been mainly known for TV work like Shameless and The Bear.

Still from ‘One Battle After Another,’ Credit to Warner Bros.

Two Slots For Seven Actors

These last two slots are tricky, as the field is incredibly malleable and dependent on their respective films’ buzz and excitement. One that seems still possible within reach is George Clooney for Jay Kelly. Clooney has received three lead actor nominations and has won for Supporting Actor for Syriana (2005). His last time at the Oscars was accepting a producing Oscar for Argo’s Best Picture win in 2013. In Kelly, Clooney plays the titular role, a famous Hollywood actor reckoning with his stardom and legacy. It does scream being meta, which may come off as self-serving, but could appeal to the specific domestic Oscar voter in the Academy who can relate to the film. 

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson will hit the campaign trail, charming voters and being the charismatic, magnetic force that’s aided his celebrity status. For The Smashing Machine, Johnson took a gamble away from his usual projects for something more daring, playing Mark Kerr in a troubling, transgressive biopic directed by Benny Safdie. His biggest hurdle may be his own persona, as voters may not take his campaign seriously. Yet, after the disappointing box office results in its opening weekend, the biggest challenge will be to see if anyone cares to see this version of Johnson as an actor breaking out of his usual constraints. 

One actor from a major Best Picture contender is Michael B. Jordan, who plays dual roles as twin crime brothers. Jordan has worked alongside Ryan Coogler since his first film, Fruitvale Station (2013), and their collaborations have displayed a breadth of performances that have led to blockbusters and dramatic works. Jordan was announced to be the recipient of the Santa Baraba International Film Festival’s Outstanding Performer of the Year. Since its inception in 2004, except for Angelina Jolie for A Mighty Heart, all twenty-seven recipients have gone on to receive an Oscar nomination, with ten actors winning. It seems to be the perfect storm for Jordan to receive his first nomination. 

Speaking of noteworthy, Daniel Day-Lewis is back in the spotlight after his retirement in his son’s directorial debut, Anemone. While reviews are mixed on the story and direction, critics are unanimous in an acting behemoth that is Day-Lewis, as his performance seems in line with his prior Oscar-winning performances. Focus Features has this and Hamnet, in which Focus has confirmed they will campaign Paul Mescal in Supporting Actor. This is perhaps due to their need to prioritize Day-Lewis for his seventh Best Actor nomination. 

This also factors Jessie Plemons’s performance in Bugonia, which many proclaimed to be his very best work as a conspiracy-obsessed kidnapper. Already a previous nominee for The Power of the Dog (2021), Plemons has gained more exposure, working with the most talented actors and directors in the industry; should Bugonia rebound in awards season, a Best Actor nomination may support the theory of the dark comedy nabbing a Best Picture nomination.

Additionally, I want to pay special attention to Joel Edgerton for Train Dreams. The film was acquired out of Sundance by Netflix, and its run at TIFF is extraordinary, as audiences have warmly embraced this touching, contemplative ode to the creation of American exploration and railroad laborers. Edgerton has sneakily won some festival notices, as he’s won several Spotlight notices from festivals. Although these are not indicative of Oscar crossover, for one of our most admired and hardworking actors, this may be the best vehicle for the Academy to honor his talents.

There is a valid argument for all of these contenders, and even more unseen contenders in the much-buzzed-about films. And the Mescal of it all, because should Focus be bullish and place him in the lead, that narrows the path for many of these passion-pick performances. 

Still from ‘Anemone,’ Credit to Plan B Entertainment

Here are my October predictions for the 2026 Oscar nominations in Best Actor:

  1. Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
  2. Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
  3. Jeremy Allen White – Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
  4. George Clooney – Jay Kelly
  5. Michael B. Jordan – Sinners

Alternates:

  1. Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
  2. Joel Edgerton – Train Dreams
  3. Jessie Plemmons – Bugonia
  4. Daniel Day-Lewis – Anemone
  5. Dwayne Johnson – The Smashing Machine

Analysis Courtesy of Amritpal Rai

Feature Image Credit to A24 via Paste Magazine