Part of the fun of early Oscar predictions is the act of throwing darts into the dark and seeing the light shine on how far off and on we were in our trajectory. Back in July, there were certain films I improperly underestimated, not due to their projected quality, but how they would fit within their studios’ campaigns, as other films also seemed like sure-fire hits on paper. Two of those films I left out of my ten predicted films have not only burst through the Best Picture race, but pose an already-early threat to win the whole show. And we’re only in October.

Did The Fall Festivals Change The Best Picture Race?

Venice, Telluride, and the Toronto International Film Festivals have concluded. What’s the biggest takeaway? 

Hamnet has hit the ground running, garnering universal acclaim from critics and attendees alike, which culminated in winning TIFF’s coveted People’s Choice Award. Chloé Zhao became the first filmmaker to win this honor, having previously won for Nomadland (2020), which went on to win three Oscars, including Best Picture. 

Winning the People’s Choice award is extremely significant. Post-festival euphoria, Hamnet has primed itself as a top awards darling, with many indicating this is Jessie Buckley’s Oscar to lose for Actress, and many categories, including Picture, Director for Zhao, and Actor for Paul Mescal, in sight. 

Yet, something else was brewing amidst the festival craze. The social embargo was lifted for Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, in which critics’ reactions were effusive praise for the scope of Anderson’s absurdist action political comedy and the poignant relevance to revolutionary spirit. Additional praise was given for the performances of its cast, which includes Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, and Teyana Taylor.  

Kyle Buchanan of the New York Times proclaimed the film as an across-the-board Oscar contender, with the help of its impressive crafts (cinematography, editing, and score). Indeed, the one film that opted out of the Fall Festival cycle has shaken the awards race, which could catapult the multihyphenate Anderson (with a total of eleven Oscar nominations) to Oscar glory. 

The film is a loose adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s Vineland, a book Anderson has described as a passion project for years, which follows a group of ex-revolutionaries battling a ruthless fascist military Colonel to save the daughter of one of their own. It seems Anderson’s film feels of the moment in our volatile political landscape, with Chief Critic of Slash Film, Chris Evangelista, deeming it a “modern America nightmare in VistaVision.” 

Steven Spielberg moderated a Q&A at the DGA theater in Los Angeles, calling it “an insane movie,” and comparing the tone to Kubrick’s Dr. Strangelove. The critical reviews are unanimous in their glowing praise for Anderson’s comedic political satire, as it seems this might be Anderson’s time to receive award recognition, as it’s entered the awards conversation like a bat out of hell; it might be the film to beat.

Warner Bros. has stated they intend to campaign it, Sinners and Weapons for awards consideration. Coogler’s southern vampire musical still feels secure for a Best Picture nomination, but now the celebrated studio (which is having the best year of any studio) will have to manage two contenders for the first time since 2021, when they distributed Dune and King Richard. Both would win a total of seven Oscars, but Best Picture.

Still from Warner Bros. ‘Sinners,’ Directed by Ryan Coogler

Neon’s Conundrum

Neon has its hands full, as it can add another contender, Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice, onto the board. From its Venice debut, the dark social dramedy has received unanimous praise from critics and audiences, which only continued into TIFF, as it topped the People’s Choice International Award. 

Cannes holdovers, such as It Was Just An Accident and Sentimental Value, were shown at Telluride and TIFF. It remains a challenge for Neon to garner two Best Picture nominations (a first for the studio), let alone three, when more late Fall and Winter films (such as Wicked: For Good and Avatar: Fire and Ash) have yet to screen, whose prior entries earned Picture nominations.

For Good is going to benefit from being the second half of the widely successful Wicked, which garnered ten Oscar nominations, winning two, and making over $700 million. Will it suffer the same consequences as Way of Water and Dune: Part Two in losing half the nominations haul of their predecessors? It’s looking very likely, yet because it is the final film, For Good will enjoy being one of the few blockbusters popular enough to garner a Picture nomination.

The two-time Best Picture-winning studio has history on its side; the 2024 and 2025 Oscars saw two non-English language films receive Best Picture nominations. (Especially the most surprising inclusion of I’m Still Here.) Neon could blow people’s minds and gain three Picture nominations—all three films are helmed by critically-acclaimed directors with name recognition, who feel in tune with the International Academy. The safe bet would be to predict two films. 

Sentimental Value has the most potential for multiple acting nominations, in addition to its screenplay and directing. This also applies to It Was Just an Accident and No Other Choice, which lack the acting potentials, so they will have to contend with Screenplay and Directing nominations to cross into a Picture nomination, in addition to their International Feature nominations.

Neon releasing No Other Choice in December may galvanize the start of a late surge momentum that we’ve seen in late-December/early-January releases, such as The Zone of Interest or The Brutalist, especially when critics groups around the country begin their awards ceremonies. Just An Accident, releasing in October, could jumpstart early buzz from audiences, which can carry it through the thick of the Fall season. It could work in reverse, where it gets lost in the shuffle of other award contenders. It’s genuinely difficult to say. Flip a coin; either all three get into Best Picture, or one may end up missing by a razor’s edge.

Still from NEON’s ‘No Other Choice,’ Directed by Park Chan-wook

Oh, Yeah, Netflix Has Movies!

Speaking of having their hands full, Netflix has some decisions to make for its awards push. Jay Kelly had a mixed response from the Venice crowd, followed by a more enthusiastic response at Telluride. Venice may not have been the best festival to debut a film following a Hollywood star, played by George Clooney, who is reckoning with their stardom in a meta-narrative comedy drama.

Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein adaptation faced a similar reaction at Venice, yet made a comeback between Telluride and TIFF, where it placed as the runner-up for TIFF’s People’s Choice Award. For audiences to vote for it enough to beat out the competition and come just under Hamnet is a boost of confidence. 

Since 2012, eleven runner-up films from the Audience Award lineup have gone on to be nominated for Best Picture; Argo, Spotlight, Parasite, and Anora have won. (2014 and 2020 being the only years in which a runner-up wasn’t nominated.) It bodes well that this adaptation of Frankenstein could muster enough passion for a Picture nomination. 

Yet, it was Kathryn Bigelow’s A House of Dynamite that exploded (pun intended) the festival, with a high critical reception, some reactions labeling it the best of the festival. The New York Film Festival reactions seem more lukewarm, some denouncing it as feeling TV-like, with a disappointing repetitive narrative structure. 

Jay Kelly seems the most likely to garner acting nominations for Clooney and Adam Sandler (as they’ve been singled out for praise), alongside its screenplay, yet its lackluster reception may make the streamer change gears for more across-the-board contenders, as Frankenstein and Dynamite can garner nominations in below-the-line technical categories, and possibilities for either Oscar-winning directors being nominated again. Jacob Elordi has garnered the most praise in reviews, signaling a potential acting nomination, should Netflix try to work its magic.

Still from Netflix’s ‘Frankenstein,’ Directed by Guillermo del Toro

Outliers and Final Thoughts 

Back at Telluride, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere premiered to a warm reception, with many critics admiring the stripped-down nature of following Bruce Springsteen’s creation of Nebraska. It follows the recent trend of musical biopics, like Elvis, Maestro, and A Complete Unknown, which will help Springsteen garner acting nominations for Jeremy Allen White and Jeremy Strong, along with a Sound nomination. Scott Cooper seems likely to crack into the flexible Best Adapted Screenplay category, which will all but help guarantee a Picture nomination. 

A24 premiered one-half of their Safdie contender at Venice, The Smashing Machine, which made waves online, including viral videos of Dwyane Johnson tearing up in front of a standing ovation (A24 perfectly replicating the online buzz from Brendan Fraser’s viral moment when The Whale premiered back in 2022). Benny Safdie won the Silver Lion at the Venice Film Festival. Josh Safide’s Marty Supreme is skipping the Fall festivals, hoping for a big theatrical splash come December, as Timothée Chalamet hopes to win for the sprawling historical epic involving underground ping-pong tournaments. 

Searchlight recently acquired Mona Fastvold’s The Testament of Ann Lee, starring Amanda Seyfried as the leader of the Shakers’ movement, in what many critics describe as her best performance. While the film was divisive in its festival runs from Venice and TIFF, having Searchlight is a tremendous get for the film, as it’s one of the best distributors/awards campaigners in the business. With twenty-three Best Picture nominations and winning five, there’s no question that Searchlight will campaign strongly for a shot at a nomination.

Still from ‘The Testament of Ann Lee,’ Recently picked up by Searchlight

The last few months have been dizzying, especially in contrast to how we at TRT viewed the Best Picture race in our Early Oscar Predictions episode. We underestimated the universality of Hamnet and One Battle, overestimated the caliber of films like Bugonia and Rental Family, and felt comfortable pinpointing the Cannes titles headed by Neon being their likeliest entries, barring the momentous surge of No Other Choice. Netflix will be thankful if they can break even one film into the Picture lineup, as the reception to their movies is sending mixed signals. If they could cram Emilia Perez into the Best Picture race, despite every single red flag that was apparent, the sky is the limit of their awards capabilities. 

Here are my October predictions for the 2026 Oscar nominations in Best Picture:

  1. One Battle After Another
  2. Hamnet
  3. Sinners
  4. Sentimental Value
  5. Marty Supreme
  6. Wicked: For Good
  7. It Was Just An Accident
  8. Frankenstein
  9. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
  10. Jay Kelly 

Alternatives:

  1. No Other Choice
  2. Avatar: Fire and Ash
  3. Bugonia
  4. Train Dreams 
  5. A House of Dynamite
  6. The Testament of Ann Lee
  7. Weapons
  8. Is This Thing On?
  9. The Secret Agent
  10. Nuremberg

Analysis Courtesy of Amritpal Rai

Feature Image Credit to Warner Bros.