As the new Year looms on the horizon, so does the awards glory for Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. With Best Film wins at the Gothams, New York Film Critics, Los Angeles Critics (LAFCA), National Board of Review, and the majority of critics groups, every other contender may as well be riding shotgun. One Battle currently holds a strong consensus as one of the most acclaimed films of the year. The industry has yet to weigh in on its chosen winners, but One Battle’s Best Picture momentum is starting strong and has only grown with its nine Golden Globe and 14 Critics’ Choice (CCA) nominations. 

While the future of Warner Bros.’ ownership remains up in the air, the studio’s dominance this awards season is evident. Ryan Coogler’s Sinners remain solidified pillars in the race, garnering seventeen Critics’ Choice and seven Globe nominations. The southern vampire drama remains one of the most successful original studio films of the year; it’s building a case as a top-two contender, aiming to crack into fields like Best Director, acting, and Screenplay. Sinners will also aim for recognition in below-the-line technical categories, particularly a Cinematography win for Autumn Durald Arkapaw.

Hamnet has capped a successful run of Audience awards at numerous film festivals, alongside respectable Globe and Critics’ Choice Nominations. Jessie Buckley remains the frontrunner to win Best Actress, even though Rose Byrne is displaying a competitive edge in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, winning numerous Best Actress prizes at the National Board of Review, New York, L.A., and Chicago film critics circles.

Neon Intends to Make History

Still from ‘The Secret Agent’ via NEON and Festival de Cannes

Neon is already making history with It Was Just An Accident and Sentimental Value solidified as their Best Picture contenders, marking their first attempt at two Best Picture nominees. The Palme d’Or-winning Accident is dominating, with Jafar Panahi winning awards in International Feature, Original Screenplay, and Best Director at the Gothams and Critics groups. Even with Accident earning one nomination at the Critics’ Choice, it bounced back at the Globes with nominations in Best Drama, Director, and Screenplay, the same haul as Sentimental Value, which also earned nominations for Best Film, Director, and Original Screenplay at the Critics’ Choice. All four of the film’s actors (Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgård, Elle Fanning, and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas) received nominations from both groups. Actors remain the Academy’s largest voting branch, bolstering Sentimental Value’s chances at a Best Picture nomination. 

That being said, one of Neon’s underdog contenders has emerged in the last few weeks as a genuine, viable candidate for a nomination. The Secret Agent won two prizes at Cannes: Best Actor for Wagner Moura and Best Director for Kleber Mendonça Filho. Since its premiere, the film has amassed immense critical and audience support. Fresh off the heels of Brazil’s success with I’m Still Here (2024), The Secret Agent has fortified wide support amongst critics, as Wagner has won Best Actor prizes from New York and been the runner-up at L.A. Film Critics, topping off a Globe nomination in Actor and Best Film. The Secret Agent came in as the runner-up for Best Film for L.A.; since 2010, only three runner-up films have failed to secure a Best Picture nomination. 

Moura could win the Globe for Best Actor in a Drama on Jan. 11, as The Secret Agent will continue to gain momentum in the coming weeks. Oscar voting begins on Jan. 12, the day after the Globes. This is a perfect recipe for what led to I’m Still Here’s surprise Best Picture Nomination last year, as voters took notice of Fernanda Torres’s win and made it a priority to watch and vote after it missed most of the precursors. It will be interesting if The Secret Agent can get into additional categories, as the film is ahead of where I’m Still Here was at this time last year. Neon is looking primed to, for the first time in the studio’s history, have three international films nominated for Best Picture. The sky’s the limit for the young, burgeoning indie studio.

Netflix is Alive With Frankenstein and, Maybe, Train Dreams

Still from ‘Train Dreams’ via Netflix

Frankenstein is officially here to stay in the Oscar race. After winning the runner-up for the TIFF Audience Award, the film was successful on Netflix, with its critical and audience scores increasing since its mixed debut at the Venice Film Festival. The film received 11 Critics’ Choice and five Globe nominations, including Guillermo del Toro as a Best Director candidate. Jacob Elordi, too, has emerged as a strong contender for Best Supporting Actor, garnering his best reviews to date. As discussed on our review episode, the film is on track to win one to three Oscars in the technical categories. Given the popularity of Del Toro as an artist making his passion project, it’s hard to imagine a lineup without Frankenstein. 

In my October predictions, I emphasised two other Netflix productions as possible awards contenders. A House of Dynamite fizzled since its Netflix premiere, as audiences have soured on the political thriller, and Jay Kelly has weakened, missing nominations for Clooney at CCA and Best Musical/Comedy at the Globes. Jay Kelly would need a combination of SAG and PGA nominations to keep its chances afloat.

Surprisingly, Netflix’s earlier Sundance acquisition, Train Dreams, has emerged as both a critical and audience favourite for the streamer’s second Best Picture contender. Directed by Clint Bentley and co-written by Greg Kwedar (the Oscar-nominated team behind 2024’s Sing Sing), Train Dreams has earned accolades from critics’ groups for its cinematography, song, screenplay, and lead performance by Joel Edgerton, as the film received a Best Film nomination at Critics’ Choice. Some years, there is a Sundance indie darling that crosses over into Best Picture, like Past Lives (2023) or Coda (2021). How SAG and BAFTA respond to Train Dreams will be critical to its Oscar chances, if the industry warmly receives the quiet, contemplative drama.

Will Oscars Dream Big With Marty Supreme and Wicked: For Good?

Still from ‘Marty Supreme’ via A24 and The Hollywood Reporter

It wouldn’t be a Christmas holiday without a Timothée Chalamet film. Much like last year’s A Complete Unknown, A24 has positioned the ping-pong sports movie Marty Surpreme from Josh Safdie as their populist play and awards contender. After The Smashing Machine was knocked out by its box office performance, Marty Supreme seems to be falling in line with prior A24 December contenders, such as The Brutalist and The Zone of Interest (2023). After a strong showing at CCA, the film underperformed at the Golden Globes, missing out on Director, Score, and both Supporting Actress categories. Marty Supreme will rely on box-office winds to boost its visibility come January. This is when most industry guilds and Oscar voting take place, similar to how A Complete Unknown benefited from its end-of-year release buzz bleeding into January. 

Meanwhile, while Wicked defied gravity last awards season, Wicked: For Good has defied anything but gravity, as the industry and audiences’ euphoria seems to have dwindled. The critical reception is lower than Wicked’s, the box office is significantly behind the first film’s haul, and the total number of nominations in key categories is absent. Last year, Wicked received 11 CCA nominations and won Best Director for John M. Chu. For Good, though, received seven nominations, missing nods in Director and Best Actress for Cynthia Erivo. At the Globes, For Good received two nominations for song, with both Ariana Grande and Erivo replicating their acting nominations from last year. Still, the sequel film was overlooked in the nomination for Best Musical/Comedy. 

In short, Wicked: For Good is underperforming its predecessor. It’s the same trend we’ve seen for sequels following the Oscar success of their first films, like Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022) and Dune: Part Two (2024). The rule-of-thumb for sequels is to slash nearly half of the nominations from their first film. Whether For Good can get a Best Picture nomination, then, will depend on whether it lands PGA and SAG Ensemble nominations, signalling industry support and favouring one of the few populist films connecting with audiences.

Still from ‘Wicked: For Good’ via Universal Pictures

Last Stand For a Few Stragglers 

Another blockbuster sequel, Avatar: Fire and Ash, faces similar struggles to Wicked: For Good, as it’s come in below its prior entries at the Globes and Critics’ Choice. The last two films received Best Film and Director nominations at both organizations. Fire and Ash received a Visual Effects nomination at CCA and showed up for Best Song and Blockbuster Achievement nominations at the Globes. Its best chance is to become a global blockbuster while matching The Way of Water’s critical, audience, and box-office reception. 

Bugonia is interesting, as the latest Yorgos Lanthimos dark comedy, Kinds of Kindness, didn’t perform well at the box office, yet it retained high critical and audience scores throughout the season. The film has enjoyed healthy staying power, being recognized by both the Globes and CCA in Best Film, Emma Stone for Best Actress, and a CCA nomination for Will Tracy’s screenplay. Even though its nomination ceiling is low, it is highlighted in key categories, including acting and writing. That could be enough for a Best Picture nomination, as it may be well-liked by international voters. 

The Best Picture race feels all but solidified in terms of our top seven contenders, as they seem too strong to dismantle. The fascinating development will take place in slots eight through ten, as there’s a valid case for six films to receive nominations. The next few weeks will be pivotal, as guild nominations and BAFTA longlists will signal where the Best Picture race lies and which films are rising or falling in popularity and consideration. 

Here are my December predictions for the 2026 Oscar nominations in Best Picture:

  1. One Battle After Another
  2. Sinners
  3. Hamnet
  4. Sentimental Value
  5. It Was Just an Accident
  6. Marty Supreme
  7. Frankenstein
  8. The Secret Agent
  9. Train Dreams
  10. Bugonia

Alternates:

  1. Wicked: For Good
  2. No Other Choice
  3. Jay Kelly 
  4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
  5. Blue Moon

Analysis Courtesy of Amritpal Rai

Feature Image Credit Warner Bros. Studio, from ‘One Battle After Another’ 2025