As Fall film festivals (Venice, TIFF, Telluride, New York) begin, so does the Oscar journey for the 2027 Oscars. There’s more mystery than certainty when it comes to the Best Picture race, and the pre-Fall festival window can still allow some more theorizing and postulating than having to be concrete.
Always the bridesmaids, never the bride – Netflix has yet to win a Best Picture Oscar, despite coming oh-so close with films like Roma (2018) and The Power of the Dog (2021). They may have yet to rid themselves of the stigma of their anti-theatrical stances that have created resentment from the industry, and perhaps never win the coveted prize. Yet, their competitive acquisition of La Bola Negra at the Cannes Film Festival may raise the notion that they may overcome this hurdle.
The Spanish film is directed, co-written, and produced by Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi (popularly known as Los Javis); the film follows three gay men from 1932, 1937, and 2017, as they struggle with pain, acceptance, and love through a hyperlink cinematic experience visualizing a century of Spanish Queer history. The film debuted to a 20-minute standing ovation, earning high audience and critical scores, with Los Javis tying the Cannes Best Director prize. Described as a film whose “scale of the storytelling could overwhelm audiences,” La Bola Negra has been highly commended for balancing three different timelines while seamlessly telling a cohesive, crowd-pleasing narrative. At a time when LGBTQ rights are more at risk of being erased by an authoritarian government, La Bola Negra could be the rallying cry for the time.
Netflix’s main struggle has been the preferential ballot. Oftentimes, their films fall in the “respect, but not love” bucket for voters, showing the limitation of their critically beloved films winning on a preferential ballot that prioritizes passion picks. La Bola Negra clearly has passion from its reception, and Netflix has already begun curating the type of audience it’s targeting to be a crowd-friendly film, something Netflix contenders have struggled with in the past.
Netflix is pulling out all the stops for La Bola Negra, namely giving the film a 47-day theatrical window before its streaming debut. That’s the longest window ever given by the studio, surpassing some of their prior awards hopefuls, such as Roma, Marriage Story (2019), The Power of the Dog, and Frankenstein (2025). For Netflix to make an exception for a non-English Cannes acquisition (something 2023’s Emilia Pérez wasn’t given) is a tremendous vote of confidence. It signals a willingness to “play the game” by instituting some form of a theatrical release (we’ll see how many theaters the film goes to). This measure means they’re not leaving anything on the table.
Seeing Los Javis celebrate their Cannes reception, I couldn’t help but be reminded of The Daniels infectious energy on the campaign trail that ingratiated them with Oscar voters who discovered them for the first time with Everything Everywhere All at Once (2022). While La Bola Negra won’t have the commercial success that propelled The Daniels’s film, it will have the benefit of surprising those who see it and being swept by its overwhelming sensorial, epic emotional heft helmed by two newcomers who can charm their way to voters’ hearts.
Netflix also acquired Danny Boyle’s Ink, which is set to open the Venice Film Festival. The film stars Jack O’Connell and Guy Pearce; it’s an adaptation of the stage play detailing Rupert Murdoch’s transformation of Britain’s The Sun to being the most influential tabloid newspaper. The parallels to today’s skewed news ecosystem could resonate with a sense of journalistic importance. Since 2013, the Venice Film Festival has correlated to one or two films landing a Picture nomination. Netflix’s energy with Ink alludes to strong possibilities; being directed by an Oscar-winning director certainly doesn’t hurt, either.
So The Odyssey is Winning Best Picture, Right?
We’re off the history-making heels of Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey crushing the box office totals, galvanizing critical and audience acclaim, and now positioning itself as a front-runner for Best Picture. Nolan is fresh from Oppenheimer (2023) winning Best Picture and Director prizes. Should Odyssey pull off a similar feat, he would be the first director since David Lean, whose consecutive films won back-to-back Picture and Directing Oscars. (Lean won for 1957’s The Bridge on the River Kwai and 1962’s Lawrence of Arabia.)
Our Oscar Board has The Odyssey garnering 14 nominations, with more on the table; it’s the safest and logical film to have as the top contender to win — a firmer affirmation of Nolan being a kingmaker in Hollywood, earning the respect and reverence so few filmmakers can command at this moment. The quick successes of Oppenheimer and Odyssey may be too hard to deny, and the race may as well be wrapped up.
Clint Eastwood is the last filmmaker to have won two Best Picture Oscars (for Unforgiven (1992) and Million Dollar Baby (2004)), yet we’ve seen many directors of Nolan’s stature fail to win their second Best Picture award, despite winning a second Directing Oscar. Famously, Steven Spielberg’s Saving Private Ryan (1998) lost out to Shakespeare in Love (1998); Alejandro G. Iñárritu came close with The Revenant (2015), after he won for Birdman (2014). Lately, It’s a hard ask for a collective Academy to repeat a Best Picture win by the same director; the allure and cumulative element of it being “their time” is nonexistent when it comes to a director’s second attempt for Best Picture.
We haven’t had a Picture/Director split since Coda/The Power of the Dog split at the 2022 Oscars; it seems the Academy will likely award both prizes to the same film, as splits are hard to predict. The Odyssey may have it in the bag between its financial and critical successes and the plethora of technical awards it’s vying to win. Yet, the Oscars have an openness to be enamored and taken in by a new creative voice that can sweep them off their feet, versus prior winners they’re familiar with. The Odyssey may seem bulletproof, yet that only allows an underdog to manifest in its shadow.
Welcome Back to the Party, Warner Bros.
Coming off the Oscar and box office high, Warner Bros. hopes to keep the awards gravy train rolling after One Battle After Another and Sinners won a combined 10 Oscars, including Best Picture for One Battle, with Iñárritu’s Digger and Denis Villeneuve‘s Dune: Part Three.
Iñárritu is an Academy darling — three of Iñárritu’s films have received Best Picture nominations — yet his last effort, Bardo (2022), was largely rejected. Digger hopes to be a disaster movie with a social comedic bent, acting as an Oscar vehicle for Tom Cruise’s transformative performance. The Academy is no stranger to divisive, comedic social satires, such as Don’t Look Up (2021) and Triangle of Sadness (2022) — the film will have its ardent fans in the Academy. If Digger is a box office bomb and repels audiences (Iñárritu already has a mixed track record with critics), its expensive price tag may be its albatross, as voters will be unlikely to touch it.
The “Dune” element is hard to quantify, even with Dune: Part One (2021) winning six Oscars, on top of a Picture nomination; Denis Villeneuve missed the Directing lineup. Dune: Part Two (2023) lost half of the first film’s nomination haul, yet pulled a Picture nomination. Dune: Part Three is expected to be the conclusion in Villeneuve’s trilogy, and because it’s adapting Dune: Messiah, the difference in tone and narrative from prior films will give voters a freshness they’re not expecting, while boasting immaculate technical prowess that’ll appeal to below-the-line branches. Its December release occupying IMAX screens will give it the splashy box office headlines that’ll keep it in voters’ minds.
Project Hail Mary is another blockbuster that’s accumulated the dollars and acclaim it needs to remain in the conversation. Don’t let the Spring release fool you — many Spring titles that pop off with tremendous box office and critical success have sustained a presence for the ensuing awards season — think Sinners (2025), Dune: Part Two, Black Panther (2018), and Get Out (2017) Some pundits will lament there are too many blockbusters in the lineup, yet this year represents the first time the box office matches pre-pandemic levels; the industry will be in a celebratory mood to nominate blockbusters they love.
The Monkey’s Paw Dilemma for Focus Features
No one at Focus Features could’ve anticipated the cultural phenomenon Curry Barker’s Obsession would become when they acquired it at 2025’s TIFF. The rags-to-riches story of a $750,000 indie horror film earning over $400 million is not something to scoff at, especially when it posts incredible critics’ and audience scores and made its central performer, Inde Navarrette, a bona fide star.
In the aftermath of Weapons (2025), Sinners, and The Substance (2024) being Oscar-winning films, there may be a bullish inclination to hop on the Obsession train and know if Focus Features (which has earned seven Best Picture nominations in the last six years) will prioritize this as their main awards contender.
Of the nine horror films that have received Picture nominations, seven have grossed over $200 million; only Jaws (1975) and The Sixth Sense (1999) have grossed higher than Obsession. It’s hard to quantify what becoming a cultural phenomenon means; there’s no denying that Obsession is part of the zeitgeist regarding dating and robbed female autonomy in toxic relationships, which contributes to its breakout hit as a conversation starter. Obsession may share similar traits to Get Out, an indie horror film that was a breakout hit in February, with a small nomination package haul of Picture, Director, and Actor, making a breakout star of Daniel Kaluuya, and winning Original Screenplay. When Christopher Nolan and Steven Spielberg are praising your film, it’s clear you’re on a lot of people’s radar in the industry.
Recently, Focus acquired Elsinore, a biographical drama of the last few months of actor Ian Charleston (Andrew Scott), who prepares and plays the role of Hamlet at the National Theater while dying of AIDS. While director Simon Stone and writer Stephen Beresford are unfamiliar faces to the Academy, there’s a contingent of Oscar voters who latch onto weepy biopic dramas that hit the emotions just right, especially revolving around social issues, as Elsinore will tackle the stigma of AIDS in the late ’80s.
Think of another biopic drama that Focus Features acquired that went on to be a major Oscar contender — Dallas Buyers Club (2013). Director Jean-Marc Vallée and writers Robbie Brenner and Rachel Winter were relatively unknown, yet the film received Picture and Screenplay nominations, and won Best Actor and Supporting Actor for Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto. Don’t discount Elsinore because it has a director and writer you aren’t familiar with; Focus made a deliberate choice acquiring and dating it in the late November holiday window.
A24’s Invite to the Oscars May Just Be…The Invite!
A24’s Sundance acquisition of The Invite has been a summer sleeper hit, whilst retaining high critic and audience scores. Olivia Wilde’s direction of an adult comedy drama that’s well-polished and crowdpleasing could appeal to Oscar voters. Centered on two couples with drastically different marriage and sex lives, the film is a polished, highly entertaining film revolving around a comedy of manners and dissecting marital strife and taboo subjects in the modern era.
A24 achieved similar success with 2023’s Past Lives, another Sundance indie about complicated relationships that was a critical and sleeper hit, and earned Picture and Original Screenplay nominations. Yet, the film’s appeal is only growing, as its reception portends this being A24’s main priority. Between Wilde’s dynamic filmmaking, four equally compelling performances, pitch-perfect mix of comedy and drama, and its lavish technical achievements in editing, cinematography, and production design — A24 has a real contender. It also bears mentioning that since the 2021 Oscars (outside of the 2023 Oscars), there’s been a film directed by a female director in the Picture lineup. Wilde has earned praise for her work, citing the works of Mike Nichols as inspiration for her chamber film. A24 has a near-perfect match with their Best Picture contenders landing Director nominations — of their nine Best Picture nominees, eight earned Director nominations (the exception being Past Lives).
The Invite’s chances rest on whether A24’s The Debut is a hit. Post his Oscar-winning A Real Pain (2024), Jesse Eisenberg writes and directs a comedy drama about the high-stakes world of musical community theater, starring Julianne Moore and Paul Giamatti. A Real Pain missed a Picture nomination, despite getting into Original Screenplay and winning Supporting Actor for Kieran Culkin. Unless A24 believes it can have both films in the lineup, The Debut has to perform stronger than The Invite; it could fall into the trap of being a film whose appeal is limited to the acting and writing branches. Think Blue Jasmine (2013), Can You Ever Forgive Me? (2018), and The Two Popes (2019) — films that land two acting and screenplay slots, but too insular to penetrate other branches in being top vote-getters on Best Picture nomination ballot.
A24 also acquired Jordan Firstman’s Club Kid from Cannes; the film may have a limited ceiling of nominations that it may contend for a lone Original Screenplay nomination. Its critics and audience scores are high; the lack of name recognition and a possibility of being a lower priority for the studio may limit its awards chances.
Will This Be an Off Year for Neon?
Coming off their seventh Palme d’Or win with Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, it feels natural to assume it can garner a Picture nomination. Starring Sebastian Stan and Renate Reinsve, the film is a social drama following a family in Norway coming under scrutiny due to cultural differences. The Palme win lends Fjord to being Neon’s main focus on paper, as its prestigious label gives it the clout and attention of voters.
Its critics and audience scores fall lower than that of Neon’s All of a Sudden, written and directed by Ryūsuke Hamaguchi. All of a Sudden follows Virginie Efira as the director of a Nursing Home as she institutes a new humane care for her patients. Both Efira and co-star Tao Okamoto took home the Best Actress prize at Cannes, and it looks on track to being one of the highest critically-lauded films of the year. A similar path Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car (2021) traversed, where it became the first non-English language film to win the trifecta of Best Film prizes from the three major critics groups, and was embraced by the Academy with Picture, Director, and Screenplay nominations, winning International Feature. The passion and love for All of a Sudden may counteract the respect and admiration for Mungiu’s social drama.
Mungiu has yet to receive a nomination, so the Palme win could elevate him to the stature of the Academy’s radar. Winning the Palme isn’t always a guarantee, as It Was Just an Accident (2025) missed the Picture lineup. Yet, the Academy has an abysmal track record recognizing Iranian cinema, as opposed to European arthouse fare. The Academy has a strong European contingent when comparing the last six years of European Film Award (EFA) winners correlating to landing similar Oscar categories in Picture, Director, and Screenplay; Fjord should do well at the EFA’s, which puts it in a stronger position with the Academy.
The last three years have seen a minimum of two non-English language films nominated for Best Picture. If La Bola Negra is in, that leaves either Neon contender to consolidate support as Neon’s Picture contender. Could three international films happen this year? Absolutely. As votership continues to grow, it’s only inevitable that more international films will be nominated. Yet, most of us tried to predict three international films last cycle, and the Academy had other plans in mind.
Is Searchlight Back After Their Last Year Stumble?
The 98th Academy Awards were filled with four different studios comprising eight of the Best Picture slots, the other two going to A24 and Apple TV+ — none for a Searchlight film. Beforehand, they had an impressive track record of an eight-year run of consecutive Picture nominations (and two wins). They hope to come roaring back with heavyweights, such as Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine and Tony Gilroy’s Behemoth!.
McDonagh is their obvious choice, considering his last two films received nominations in Picture, a combined seven acting (and two wins) slots, Director, and Screenplay categories. Wild Horse Nine’s trailer promises the same caustic wit McDonagh is known for, as well as a star-studded ensemble. Part of my coolness has been the presentation, feeling more slight and similar to his earlier films, and perhaps not reinventing the McDonagh narrative wheel. I could be 100% off-base and projecting some internal fear that it won’t click like his other films. Until it premieres at Venice, we won’t know. I’m taking the risky bet that McDonagh’s latest may miss.
My Searchlight horse all season has been Gilroy’s Behemoth!. Described as a love letter to the music of movies, the film stars Pedro Pascal as a cellist who returns to Los Angeles to compose a film score, and is told in non-linear fashion, tracking his character’s life journey and relationships. Despite being absent from the Oscar radar since 2007’s Michael Clayton, Gilroy’s sensibilities should appeal to the more high-brow contingent of Oscar voters, especially with its world premiere as the New York Film Festival’s Centerpiece. The last two world premiere films at NYFF to receive Picture nominations were Marty Supreme (2025) and The Irishman (2019).
Possible Stragglers
Despite the heated controversy, Luca Guadagnino’s Artificial was dropped by Amazon MGM due to their Open A.I. deal; Neon swept in and acquired it and seems to be skipping all the Fall festivals for a December premiere. The last Guadagnino film to make a dent at the Oscars was Call Me By Your First Name (2017); his films since have had a difficult time translating to the Academy. Unless the reviews and box office make it hard to deny, the film won’t materialize momentum in that short window of time. Plus. Neon will have their hands full with their Cannes titles, so it’s hard to see them prioritize Artificial.
The Social Reckoning hopes to capitalize on the fondness and love for The Social Network (2010), as a sort-of tangential continuation of the first film’s events involving Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook’s role in the age of misinformation, with writer Aaron Sorkin taking over directing duties from Fincher. Of Sorkin’s three directed films, only The Trial of the Chicago 7 (2020) managed to get in the Picture lineup; otherwise, Social Reckoning may fail to escape the shadow of Fincher’s film. Unless its reception matches Fincher’s film, Reckoning will have to settle with acting prospects for Mikey Madison and Jeremy Strong, as actors playing Sorkin-written characters have a better history of being nominated by the actors’ branch.
The Fall festivals will clarify more, but for now, the landscape is fluid just enough that some of these films could fall off as others will rise.
Below are my August predictions for Best Picture and Best Director:
- La Bola Negra
- The Odyssey
- Project Hail Mary
- The Invite
- All of a Sudden
- Dune: Part Three
- Obsession
- Behemoth!
- Elsinore
- Ink
On the Bubble:
- Fjord
- Digger
- Wild Horse Nine
- The Debut
- The Social Reckoning
- Sense and Sensibility
- Josephine
- Michael
- Artifical
- Untitled Cliff Booth Movie
Best Director:
- Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo – La Bola Negra
- Christopher Nolan – The Odyssey
- Ryusuke Hamaguchi – All of a Sudden
- Tony Gilroy – Behemoth!
- Olivia Wilde – The Invite
On the Bubble:
- Cristian Mungiu – Fjord
- Martin McDonagh – Wild Horse Nine
- Phil Lord and Chris Miller – Project Hail Mary
- Alejandro G. Iñárritu – Digger
- Curry Barker – Obsession
Article Courtesy of Amritpal Rai
Feature Image from ‘La Bola Negra’ Courtesy of Netflix