This has been one of the most chaotic awards seasons in recent memory, and that’s not including the horrifying wildfires in Los Angeles that have devasted the area. Simply put, no one knows which film will win Best Picture. It’s an open season for the unlikeliest contenders to emerge as soft frontrunners, but it remains to be seen what can win.

This unpredictability is something Oscar lovers and awards prognosticators have desired in the past. So often films like Oppenheimer (2023) or Everything Everywhere All at Once (2022) positioned themselves early on and never wavered from their winning positions. This year we’re presented with a mix of indie darlings from prestigious international festivals and traditional mid-budget studio dramas with recognizable Hollywood talents. With all precursor nominations announced by all Guilds and other awards organizations with membership overall, these predictions for all twenty-three categories will be an amalgamation of precedence of previous nominations, branch favoritism, and prior patterns, and my interpretation of what could feasibly be nominated.

Throughout my analysis of each category, I will reference numerous precursors and what film has been nominated. To view those precursors and understand the context of my picks, I will cite precursors linked to their categories. Here are my predictions for the 97th Academy Awards.

Best Picture:

  1. Anora 
  2. Conclave 
  3. Emilia Pérez 
  4. The Brutalist 
  5. A Complete Unknown 
  6. The Substance 
  7. Wicked 
  8. Dune: Part II 
  9. A Real Pain 
  10. Nickel Boys 

Between the Drama and Comedy/Musical Globes, Critics Choice, SAG Ensemble, and BAFTA–Anora, Conclave, Emilia Perez, Brutalist, and Complete Unknown have emerged as our Top Five Best Picture Contenders. Perez and Brutalist won big at the Globes. Anora ends its run winning most critics group prizes for Best Film. Conclave is coming off the high of twelve BAFTA nominations.

The Substance has remained a constant staple throughout this awards season, with Best Film nominations from Globes and Critics Choice. Wicked is a global blockbuster juggernaut, with hopefuls in acting categories and the potential to dominate below-the-line technical categories. Dune: Part II will be taking a backseat in some of these categories but remains one the most highly acclaimed blockbusters of 2024 that will help keep it relevant for a Best Picture nomination supported by below-the-line technical categories.

The last two slots are tricky and fluid. With the PGA nominees announced on January 16t, A Real Pain’s hopes reignited after missing out on Best Film nominations from Critics Choice and BAFTA. PGA’s ten nominees usually don’t replicate at the Oscars (except for last year), leaving September 5 vulnerable after being absent from many precursors. Sing Sing missed Globes, SAG Ensemble, PGA, and the BAFTA longlist for Best Film.

Nickel Boys has Globe Drama and Critics Choice nominations yet missed guilds and BAFTA longlist (despite a Screenplay nomination). It’s a coin flip as to what makes the tenth slot. With how much Sing Sing underperformed, I believe it will miss Best Picture. Nickel Boys may repeat Picture and Screenplay nomination hauls Past Lives (2023) and Women Talking (2022) accomplished.

Precursors: Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Screen Actors Guild (SAG), BAFTA, Producers Guild of America (PGA)

Best Director:

  1. Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
  2. Sean Baker – Anora
  3. Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
  4. Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
  5. RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys

Corbet, Baker, Audiard, and Fargeat started their journeys from the Cannes and Venice Film Festival. Baker won the Palme d’Or, solidifying his film as a contender in Picture and Director, as previous Palme winners (Justine Triet, Ruben Östlund, and Bong Joon-Ho) would go on to get Best Director nominations.

Corbet won Best Director for The Brutalist at Venice and the Golden Globes and scored the most Director prizes from critics’ groups. Audiard, who directed Emilia Pérez, is a celebrated auteur in international cinema, and, with a win from the EFA (Triet, Östlund, Thomas Vinterberg, Yorgos Lanthimos, and Paweł Pawlikowski won and received Oscar nominations), Audiard is looking to repeat those results. Baker, Corbet, Audiard, and Edward Berger have Globe, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and DGA nominations. They feel secure for nominations.

Fargeat has won her fair share of critics’ group prizes, and nominations from the Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA help bolster her placement. Her authorial vision skewering Hollywood social norms can be embraced by the Director’s branch that has favored social satires from Cannes, like Bong and Östlunds’ films. 

I have Edward Berger at fifth I could see an outcome similar to previous Director contenders that made all four precursors but missed for an International or established auteur. It’s safe to keep Berger at fifth, which is why I am predicting an outside shot of RaMell Ross. It’s the type of auteur sensibilities, a critics’ favorite, that could land a nomination, with a Critics Choice nomination. If the Director’s branch is anything, it’s not safe.

Precursors: Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, Directors Guild of America (DGA), European Film Awards (EFA)

Image Courtesy of Mubi via Dealine

Best Actress:

  1. Demi Moore – The Substance
  2. Mikey Madison – Anora
  3. Karla Sofia Gascón – Emilia Pérez
  4. Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here 
  5. Cynthia Erivo – Wicked

Moore seems poised to earn her first Oscar nomination and potential win for her work in The Substance. Her Globe speech enamored listeners, the category has lately favored veteran actresses, and Moore is operating with the comeback narrative. Madison is the young ingénue with the most critics wins. Gascón’s journey started when she won the Cannes Best Actress prize (shared by her co-recipients) and is looking to make history as the first trans actress ever nominated for an Oscar. All three women have earned nominations from Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, and BAFTA. The last two slots are incredibly tough.

Fernanda Torres emerged surprisingly. Missing mentions from Critics Choice, SAG, BAFTA, and not the most Critics wins, it seemed she could miss the nomination. Yet, winning the Globe Actress award (right when Oscar voting opened) may have catapulted her enough for people to make I’m Still Here priority viewing. With how international the Academy membership has become, there can be support for Torres to repeat the same Best Actress nomination her mother, Fernanda Montenegro, accomplished thirty years ago for Central Station (1998).

Erivo has also earned nominations from the major precursors. Yet, Best Actress is always ripe for surprise omissions of women who make all precursors but miss for a passion pick(look no further than Amy Adams in Arrival (2016) or Margot Robbie in Barbie (2023)). It would not be surprising if Erivo missed for a more passion pick-type of performance that has been underrepresented this awards season. One of those options is Marianne Jean-Baptiste for Hard Truths. With a Critics Choice and BAFTA nomination, and winning the Trifecta of Critics Best Actress prizes, Baptiste is looking to gain a second Oscar nomination (after her previous one for 1996’s Secrets & Lies). Yet, she could miss due to playing such an unlikable character and a weak distributor to campaign on her behalf. Best Actress is chaotic just enough for Erivo to miss for Baptiste.

Precursors: Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Screen Actors Guild (SAG), BAFTA

Best Actor:

  1. Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
  2. Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
  3. Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
  4. Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
  5. Daniel Craig – Queer 

This is simple: Brody, Chalamet, Domingo, and Fiennes have Globe, Critics Choice, SAG, and BAFTA nominations. Brody has won the Globe Drama and is on track to win his second Oscar. 

For the fifth slot, we’re down to Daniel Craig for Queer and Sebastian Stan for The Apprentice. Craig has Globe, Critics Choice, and SAG nominations, while Stan won the Globe for A Different Man and received nominations at the Globes and BAFTA for The Apprentice. This comes down to which performance voters will respond to. Stan seems to have more favoritism with international voters, as they may be removed from the immediate normalcy of Donald Trump and view him through a dissociative lens. Domestic voters may not be inclined to watch a biopic of a heated politician that many view unfavorably. Stan could encounter instances of his support between his two films being undercut.

I will stick with Craig here. He has a long-standing career in Hollywood, and his dramatic turn offers voters a chance to see him in a unique light. The SAG Best Actor lineup has matched the Oscar lineup five times this last decade: 2023, 2021, 2020, 2016, and 2015. SAG and the Oscars tend to line up with Best Actor; sticking with Craig would continue that trend.

Precursors: Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Screen Actors Guild (SAG), BAFTA

Best Supporting Actress:

  1. Zoë Saldaña – Emilia Pérez
  2. Ariana Grande – Wicked
  3. Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
  4. Jamie Lee Curtis – The Last Showgirl 
  5. Selena Gomez – Emilia Pérez

Saldaña and Grande have made every precursor; they’re safe and secure. The next three slots are a free-for-all. Rossellini made Globe, Critics Choice, and BAFTA; the SAG miss notwithstanding, Conclave is a Best Picture contender. Despite limited screen time, Rossellini may earn her first nomination. Jamie Lee Curtis emerged as a surprise for many, landing SAG and BAFTA nominations late into the season. Having won an Oscar recently, Curtis could receive an afterglow nomination as a sign of being well-liked among Oscar voters.

This was difficult. Despite being a Best Picture contender, a previous nominee for The Theory of Everything (2014), and landing Globe and BAFTA nominations, I am not predicting Felicity Jones to make the cut. As Brody and Pearce have racked up nominations and wins, Jones has been surprisingly absent from the conversation. She has gained few critics’ notices, with no wins. Due to how long The Brutalist is, voters may not finish it far enough to when Jones’s character appears after the intermission. There is a reality her performance, while spectacular in compositing a fully-realized character with half the screen time of her co-stars, doesn’t inspire a lot of passionate votes for a nomination due to the mixed reception directed towards the second half. Missing SAG, and Critics Choice and her absence from critics’ groups may be a sign of that vulnerability.

Why am I going with Gomez? Netflix is an excellent campaigner, often maximizing nominations for their films. Roma (2018) netted a surprise nomination for Marina de Tavira; Jesse Plemons was a surprise nominee for Power of the Dog (2022); Jesse Buckley surprised for The Lost Daughter (2022). Gomez made Globe and BAFTA and received an international boost for Perez, alongside being the most nominated film of the day. 

Precursors: Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Screen Actors Guild (SAG),  BAFTA

Best Supporting Actor:

  1. Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
  2. Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
  3. Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
  4. Yura Borisov – Anora
  5. Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing

Culkin, Norton, and Borisov received Globe, Critics Choice, SAG, and BAFTA nominations, while Pearce made everything except SAG. All four actors are Best Picture contenders. If any of those four missed it would be shocking.

Jeremy Strong has Globe, SAG, and BAFTA nominations for The Apprentice, while Clarence Maclin has Critics Choice and BAFTA. Since Sing Sing has dropped as an awards contender, Maclin has not materialized as a potential acting contender. Missing SAG was a major blow to his campaign, yet his BAFTA nomination makes me believe there is still some support. Domingo is locked for a nomination for Best Actor, and he could bring along Maclin as his co-star.

Maclin’s chances are why I don’t believe Jeremy Strong will make it in. Domestic voters aren’t watching The Apprentice due to the Trump stigma; Strong could suffer. He did make SAG while Stan didn’t, which could repeat at the Oscars. But I believe people are more inclined to watch Sing Sing than The Apprentice. 

Precursors: Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Screen Actors Guild (SAG), BAFTA

Image Courtesy of Seachlight Pictures via IMDb

Best Original Screenplay:

  1. Sean Baker – Anora
  2. Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold – The Brutalist
  3. Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain
  4. Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
  5. Tim Fehlbaum, Moritz Binder, Alex David – September 5

Anora, Brutalist, A Real Pain, and The Substance showed up at the Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. WGA has ruled most of these films as ineligible, so I am not placing too much stock into who they nominate due to their eligibility rules. With September 5 making the PGA lineup, it renewed interest in it, possibly getting a lone screenplay nomination. Its rocky awards season has netted a Globe Drama nomination and a nomination for screenplay at Critics Choice. 

Challengers could appear here, having mentions from WGA and Critics Choice, yet failing to make PGA makes me believe it hasn’t resonated properly.

Precursors: Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, Writers Guild of America (WGA)

Best Adapted Screenplay:

  1. Peter Straughan – Conclave
  2. Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
  3. RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes – Nickel Boys
  4. James Mangold, Jay Cocks – A Complete Unknown
  5. Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield – Sing Sing

Conclave won the Globe Screenplay and netted nominations from Critics Choice and BAFTA (alongside Perez). Nickel Boys has Critics Choice, BAFTA, and WGA nominations and Sing Sing was only mentioned by Critics Choice and BAFTA. A Complete Unknown is peaking at the same time The Zone of Interest (2023) was late last year, where it knocked out a heavy contender in Killers of the Flower Moon (2023) and landed a surprise nomination. Cocks and Mangold are previous nominees for the branch, and the film is becoming a top-five contender for Picture. This would knock out Dune II. It’s possible it can remain — the first film was nominated back in TKTK — but this may be where it underperforms.

Precursors: Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, Writers Guild of America (WGA)

Best Film Editing:

  1. Nick Emerson – Conclave
  2. Juliette Welfling – Emilia Pérez
  3. Sean Baker – Anora
  4. Joe Walker – Dune: Part II
  5. Hansjörg Weißbrich – September 5

Conclave, Anora, and Dune II won ACE, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. Perez won EFA (the same award Anatomy of a Fall won and garnered an Oscar nomination) and received ACE and BAFTA nominations. Brutalist made Critics Choice but missed ACE and BAFTA. This could be our first sign that it’s not a strong contender for Best Picture. Challengers made ACE and Critics Choice but missed the BAFTA. 

As A Complete Unknown is surging in popularity, I considered putting this in my fifth slot. Editor Andrew Buckland is a previous winner of Ford v Ferrari (2019). If Unknown is a top-five contender, then Editing settles that debate. Yet, missing both Critics Choice and BAFTA is suspicious, when it’s clear voters saw it enough to nominate it for Best Film. 

It feels like a coin flip. Any of the four films mentioned could make the fifth slot, depending on how strong they are as Best Picture contenders. I am settling on September 5. The film made Critics Choice, won LAFCA for Editing, and its PGA nomination could indicate voters are finally catching it after it being absent from guilds and other precursors. September 5 would join Memento (2000) and Out of Sight (1998) as films with Screenplay and Editing combinations. The film is certainly the flashiest, as it progresses into a suspenseful thriller with constant back-and-forth cuts of characters making intense decisions.

Precursors: Critics Choice, BAFTA, Producers Guild of America (PGA), American Cinema Editors Awards (ACE)

Best Cinematography:

  1. Lol Crawley – The Brutalist
  2. Jarin Blaschke – Nosferatu 
  3. Stéphane Fontaine – Conclave
  4. Ed Lachman – Maria 
  5. Paul Guilhaume – Emilia Pérez

Let’s run this down: Brutalist, Nosferatu, Conclave, and Dune II made Critics Choice, ASC, BSC, and BAFTA. Perez made BAFTA, and BSC, with a Bronze award at Camerimage (Brutalist won the Silver award while Girl with the Needle won the Golden Frog). ASC nominated seven films, offering space for Wicked, Complete Unknown, and Maria. Nickel Boys won the Critics Trifecta of Cinematography awards and has a Critics Choice nomination. 

Brutalist, Nosferatu, and Conclave feel secure, as two are Picture contenders and Nosferatu will be embraced as elevating the gothic horror of the original film (Blaschke is a prior nominee for 2019’s The Lighthouse). Ed Lachman is the closest to a veteran this year; Maria would mark his fourth nomination. He received an ASC nomination for El Conde (2023), cementing his Oscar nomination. He’s beloved by the branch, despite missing most precursors. For A Complete Unknown, Phedon Papamichael is another veteran (two nominations), yet it could be tough to get the nomination without BSC and BAFTA support. 

Despite missing ASC in a field of seven, the sensibilities of Perez appeal to the Euro-centric types of the branch. Its nominations correlate to international/European organizations, so it makes sense to miss ASC. Nickel Boys and Girl with the Needle were mentioned in ASC’s Spotlight award; Ida (2014) and Lighthouse (who made this category previously) received Oscar nominations, but they also made BAFTA—Nickel Boys and Needle did not. I also think the first-person POV style of Nickel Boys could be divisive to branch voters, as it may be hard to acclimate and appreciate.

That leaves Greg Fraser for Dune II. While he won for the first film, my interpretation of this branch is they won’t nominate a sequel if the predecessors won. Andrew Lesnie won for Fellowship of the Ring (2001) yet was not nominated for the subsequent sequels. Avatar (2009) won Best Cinematography, yet Way of Water (2022) missed the nomination. Dune II has made Critics Choice, ASC, BSC, and BAFTA. I suspect there could be a shock miss for Greg Fraser, as the branch won’t feel it’s necessary to nominate him for the same franchise he won previously. It’s a daring risk to leave him off. 

Precursors: Critics Choice, BAFTA, American Society of Cinematographers (ASC), British Society of Cinematographers (BSC), Camerimage

Be sure to check out Part 2 of final predictions.

Analysis Courtesy of Amritpal Rai

Feature Image Credit to NEON via The Lincoln Film Center