Continuing from Part 1 of my final Oscar predictions for 2025, below is the remaining categories and my analysis of who is going to be nominated Thursday Morning.

Best Costume Design:

  1. Paul Tazewell – Wicked
  2. Linda Muir – Nosferatu
  3. Jacqueline West – Dune: Part II
  4. Arianne Phillips – A Complete Unknown
  5. Massimo Cantini Parrini – Maria

Wicked and Nosferatu are the only films that have made Critics Choice, BAFTA, and the CDG for Sci-fi/Fantasy and Period Film, respectively. That’s close to being secure. Dune II made CDG and Critics Choice, yet oddly missed BAFTA. Jacqueline West is a five-time nominee costume designer and received the same notice for the first film, so I would keep Dune II, despite the BAFT omission. A Complete Unknown nabbed a surprise nomination at BAFTA. Arianne Phillips is a three-time nominee, and the costume design could be a category it gets into as a coattail nomination for re-creating the look of many famous folk musicians of the sixties, like Bob Dylan, Johnny Cash, and Joan Baez. 

Gladiator II did make Critics Choice and CDG, yet missing BAFTA is eerily like another Ridley Scott film: House of Gucci (2021). The fear of the same outcome happening is keeping me from predicting it. I will select Maria instead. It’s made Critics Choice and CDG, and Parrini is a two-time nominee for films with shaky precursor backing. He could be a branch favorite that can get in due to the quality of the work. His previous nominees include Pinocchio (2019), which received a CDG nomination while Cyrano (2021) had BAFTA and Critics Choice nominations. Maria could fit the wonky precursors Parrini has dealt with in the past. 

Precursor: Critics Choice, BAFTA, Costume Design Guild (CDG)

Best Production Design:

  1. Nathan Crowley, Lee Sandales – Wicked
  2. Judy Becker – The Brutalist
  3. Craig Lathrop – Nosferatu
  4. Zsuzsanna Sipos, Shane Vieau, Patrice Vermette – Dune : Part II
  5. Arthur Max, Elli Griff – Gladiator II

Wicked, Nosferatu, Brutalist, Dune II, and Conclave have nominations from Critics Choice, ADG, SDG, and BAFTA. Seems like a perfect set five. Yet, Conclave is classified as “contemporary” by the guilds. It’s difficult for contemporary films to get nominations in this category unless they incorporate fantastical or science fiction elements like Her (2013), La La Land (2016), or Tenet (2020). Conclave is gorgeous, yet I suspect its modern setting is too limited to one specific design of the Vatican, and the BAFTA love it received may not translate to the Oscars. 

With four nominations under his belt for Ridley Scott films, Arthur Max seems like a safe choice, as lavishly recreating the Roman Colosseum in Gladiator II could be viewed favorably for being a big-budgeted historical epic. 

Precursors: BAFT, Art Directors Guild (ADG), Set Decorators Guild (SDG)  

Best Original Score:

  1. Daniel Blumberg – The Brutalist
  2. Clément Ducol, Camille – Emilia Pérez
  3. Volker Bertelmann – Conclave
  4. Kris Bowers – The Wild Robot 
  5. Robin Carolan – Nosferatu

The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Perez, and Wild Robot have made Globe, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. Despite Challengers only missing the BAFTA (and winning the Globe), there is a fear that due to the techno-pop sensibilities of the score it could be dismissed since there is no other comparison in the past, even with two-time Oscar winners Reznor and Ross, at the helm.

We only have HMMA and SCLA. At HMMA in terms of guilds. Perez won Feature Film Score, with Conclave and Challengers as nominees that could translate to the Oscars. 

The Room Next Door won Independent Feature, and Alberto Iglesias is a four-time Oscar nominee, but Next Door has failed to gain precursors outside of HMMA. Nosferatu won HMMA for Horror Score, and with its recent BAFTA nomination, this is a possibility due to its popularity. Robot won Animated Film Score. There is fear due to the last two years of animated films failing to get nominated. Perez, Conclave, Robot, and Wicked have SCLA nominations in the Studio film category; Brutalist is nominated in Independent Film.

The best bet is to have Brutalist, Conclave, Perez, and Nosferatu to round your four spots. Only five animated films have been nominated for Original Score since 2010. Robot isn’t safe, yet objectively, it has performed the best with precursors. Reluctantly I must predict it, as no other nominee makes sense. Should Wicked receive extra nominations, this is a place it could perform. Yet no score from a Broadway adaptation has been nominated this century. Will it start with Wicked? Hard to say.

Precursors: Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, Society of Composers & Lyricists Awards (SCLA), Hollywood Music in Media Awards (HMMA)

Best Hair & Makeup:

  1. The Substance
  2. Wicked
  3. Emilia Pérez
  4. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice 
  5. A Different Man

The last horror film nominated (and won) in this category was The Wolfman (2010), with legendary six-time Oscar winner Rick Baker at the helm. The Substance may break that streak with the branch’s distance of horror films. Substance and Wicked made Critics Choice, BAFTA, and the Make-Up & Hairstyling Guild. Perez has gained acclaim for Gascon’s transformation, with notices from BAFTA and MUAHS. Even though it missed the BAFTA, the original Beetlejuice (1988) won the Oscar, and its sequel has made Critics Choice and MUAHS for its extensive various fantasy designs.

In the last slot, I have to choose between two films. Nosferatu has Critics Choice and BAFTA yet missed the guild. An argument could be made that it wasn’t screened on time, and its late surge is people finally watching it. I’m not sure if all of Nosferatu’s BAFTA nominations translate to the Oscars. With The Substance breaking the stigma of horror films not being appreciated by the branch, it could be too much for more than one horror movie to be nominated. 

A Different Man was not longlisted by BAFTA yet was nominated by Critics Choice and MUAHS (specifically in Special Make-Up Effects). This category correlates well with the Oscars, and the make-up artist, Michael Marino, is a previous two-time nominee. 

Precursors: Critics Choice, BAFTA, Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists (MUAHS)

Image Courtesy of The Manuel via Warner Bros. Discovery

Best Sound:

  1. Dune: Part II
  2. Wicked
  3. A Complete Unknown
  4. Emilia Pérez
  5. Alien: Romulus 

I have two musicals (Wicked and Perez) and one music biopic (Unknown) that could feasibly be cut, especially in the combined sound category. Wicked was the only musical nominated at the BAFTA nomination for sound; all three films landed at the Sound Guilds. All three films received two nominations at MPSE, along with Dune II (which also made BAFTA). Wicked, Unknown, and Dune II made CAS, alongside Gladiator II (which made BAFTA) and Deadpool & Wolverine. I’m confident Dune II, Perez, Wicked, and Unknown will make the lineup due to their strengths as Best Picture contenders and the different ways sound is implemented. 

The fifth slot can go a variety of ways. War and action-type films do tremendously well; Blitz (2024) is the only one with war-specific sound work that could be nominated. The problem is it only made the BAFTA. With low awards visibility and missing significant guilds, Blitz could be too small for members to catch. 

Gladiator II blanked at MPSE, making it weak as an action film substitute. My instinct is to go with Alien: Romulus. It received two MPSE nominations and feels reminiscent of another sci-fi film that received a surprise sound nomination: The Creator (2023). It missed MPSE, CAS, and BAFTA, yet science fiction films have a better pull with the Oscar Sound branch; Romulus implements extensive sound design reminiscent of previous space films nominated. 

Precursors: BAFTA, Cinema Audio Society (CAS), Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE)

Best Song:

  1. “El Mal” – Emilia Pérez
  2. “Mi Camino” – Emilia Pérez
  3. “The Journey” – The Six Triple Eight 
  4. “Never Too Late” – Elton John: Never Too Late 
  5. “Kiss The Sky” – The Wild Robot

With Globe, Critics Choice, HMMA, and SCLA nominations for the two Perez songs, both look to receive Oscar nominations, similar to previous Best Picture contenders, like Barbie (2023) and La La Land. 

After fifteen nominations, it’s inevitable and undeniable to include a Diane Warren song in your lineup; Six Triple Eight will be no different. Songs from documentaries tend to do well, even if the films don’t make it into the Documentary category. 

With two Oscar wins, Elton John seems like a branch favorite who could get a song nomination for a documentary that profiles his Farewell Yellow Brick Road tour. Despite the last two years of animated songs from Across the Spider-Verse (2023) and Pinocchio (2022), since 2010, twelve animated films have been nominated for Best Song (with three winning). It’s best not to bet against animated film songs, especially if they’re respective film is contending to win Best Animated Film.

Precursors: Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Society of Composers & Lyricists Awards (SCLA), Hollywood Music in Media Awards (HMMA)

Best Visual Effects:

  1. Dune: Part II
  2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes 
  3. Better Man 
  4. Alien: Romulus
  5. Mufasa: The Lion King 

Dune II, Kingdom, and Better Man have Critics Choice, BAFTA, and VES nominations. These seem most secure, as they offer the most extensive and creative usage of photo-real visual effects. Mufasa follows the traditional line of live-action adaptations of animated Disney classics, such as The Lion King (2019), Mulan (2020), and Jungle Book (2016). It has three VES nominations and boasts impressive work the previous Lion King displayed.

Gladiator II received a BAFTA and two VES nominations; Alien Romulus only has one VES nomination. Yet, science fiction/space films do extremely well with the branch. The Alien franchise has won this category twice for the first two films while Alien 3 (1992) and Prometheus (2012) received nominations.

I have Wicked missing. It reminded me of previous Best Picture nominees who failed to get nominations, either because they did not impress the branch or criticisms levied at their visual aesthetics. Poor Things (2023), Black Panther (2018), and Arrival (2016) failed to get nominated despite being top contenders; Wicked looks to follow a similar trajectory, especially with just Critic’s Choice and one VES nomination for recreating the iconic Emerald City.

Precursors: Critics Choice, BAFTA, Visual Effects Society (VES)

Image Courtesy of NPR via Janus Films

Best Animated Feature:

  1. Gints Zilbalodis – Flow 
  2. Chris Sanders – The Wild Robot
  3. Nick Park, Merlin Crossingham – Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl 
  4. Kelsey Mann – Inside Out 2 
  5. Adam Elliot – Memoir of a Snail 

Flow, Wild Robot, Wallace & Gromit, Inside Out 2, and Memoir of a Snail have made Globes, Critics Choice, and Annies, and the former three films also made BAFTA. Outside of Moana 2 (2024) or an underseen indie film like Chicken for Linda! (2024), I can’t image any film breaking this top five.

Precursors: Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, Annies

Best Documentary Feature:

  1. Yuval Abraham, Basel Adra, Hamdan Ballal, Rachel Szor – No Other Land 
  2. Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie – Sugarcane 
  3. Angela Patton, Natalie Rae – Daughters 
  4. Shiori Itô – Black Box Diaries
  5. Brendan Bellomo, Slava Leontyev – Porcelain War 

The Documentary category is always the most difficult to predict. Whether it’s due to changing memberships dislike of mainstream films or dislike of major studios dominating the market—the branch is never easy to pinpoint. Consider some of these selections’ gut instincts. 

Despite not securing a distributor, No Other Land is far and away the winner. It’s won the most Documentary prizes, IDA, and Cinema Eye. A nomination is a message that despite no distributor, the branch members take their commitment seriously enough to elevate films, regardless of glitzy campaign marketing. 

Land, Daughters, Black Box Diaries made BAFTA. Daughters has won Best New Documentary Filmmaker(s) from Critics Choice, and nominations from IDA and Cinema Eye (alongside Black Box). Sugarcane won Directing at Sundance, and Best Political Documentary at Critics Choice. Porcelain War is the only shortlisted documentary with a PGA nomination, plus it’s won the Audience Choice Prize at Cinema Eye, and the Grand Jury Prize at Sundance.

Precursors: Sundance, IDA, Cinema Eye Honors, Critics Choice Documentary Awards, Producers Guild of America (PGA), BAFTA

Best International Feature:

  1. Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
  2. Walter Salles – I’m Still Here
  3. Rich Peppiatt – Kneecap 
  4. Maura Delpero – Vermiglio 
  5. Pat Boonnitipat – How To Make Millions Before Grandma Dies 

Perez and I’m Still Here have made Globe, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. Kneecap has emerged with Critics Choice and BAFTA nominations. While Vermiglio only made Globe, its trajectory is like Io Capitano (2023). Both won a prize at the Venice Film Festival, got a Globe nomination, missed Critics Choice and BAFTA, and got into Oscar. Italian features have a great track record of being nominated in this category, and Vermiglio looks to follow suit.

Sacred Fig feels safe for a nomination. It’s made the Globe, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. It was awarded a special Screenplay Prize at Cannes, yet, I have a creeping suspicion this could miss. I believe this is a film voters respect rather than love, not winning a competitive prize at Cannes was a first clue. Not making any longlist mentions at BAFTA outside of International Film seemed strange, since BAFTA recognized other international films in numerous categories. 

While it won Best Director at LAFCA, it lost the International Film prize to All We Imagine as Light (2024). I see these as little hints the film could easily miss for something more of a passion pick. It’s reminiscent of films like A Hero (2021) or Decision to Leave (2022) that were heavily predicted due to their clout and festival buzz, yet were superseded by late-breaking contenders, like Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (2019), which had very little precursor support. 

I am taking a risk by putting How To Make Millions as my fifth selection. It does not have any precursor support. What it has going for is this would be Thailand’s first nomination in this category. It’s the first of theirs to make the shortlist. The dramedy is a box office success in Thailand, becoming one of the highest-grossing Thai films. It’s my no guts, no glory pick.

Precursors: LAFCA, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA

Best Animated Short Film:

  1. Maybe Elephants 
  2. A Bear Named Wojtek 
  3. In The Shadow of the Cypress 
  4. Wander to Wonder 
  5. A Crab in The Pool 

Maybe Elephants is by Torill Kove who won this category for The Danish Poet (2006) and has two more nominations. Shadow of the Cypress and Wander to Wonder received Annie nominations for Best Short Subject. This category is not afraid to embrace mature, adult subject material that could be seen as risky and dark. A Bear Named Wojtek has an Annie nomination for Special Production. Wander also has a BAFTA nomination for British Short Animation. A Crab in the Pool has won a handful of animation short prizes from festivals, including SXSW. 

Precursors: Annies, BAFTA

Best Documentary Short Film:

  1. Incident 
  2. Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World 
  3. A Swim Lesson 
  4. The Quilters 
  5. Chasing Roo 

Incident reconstructs a 2018 police shooting in Chicago and its aftermath using CCTV, surveillance, and body-cam footage. It won the 2023 IDA award for Documentary Short and Cinema Eye for Nonfiction Short Filmmaking. Netflix short docs usually can score a nomination, and Makayla’s Voice details a teen with autism sharing her voice through self-expression. It has nominations from Cinema Eye and Critics Choice. Swim Lesson is by Rashida Jones and Will McCormack and follows the career of a swim instructor teaching children to overcome their fears of swimming. Chasing Roo is by two-time Oscar nominee, Skye Fitzgerald, and investigates the harvesting of kangaroos in Australia. Quilters follows several men incarcerated in a level 5 maximum security prison, where they sew quilts for foster children. It portrays the art of expression, rehabilitation, and giving back to their community. There is a social commentary regarding imprisoned men turning a new side to their lives.  

Precursors: Cinema Eye Honors, IDA Awards, Critics Choice Documentary Awards

Best Live-Action Short Film:

  1. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent 
  2. Anuja 
  3. Room Taken 
  4. A Lien 
  5. An Orange from Jaffa 

The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent dramatizes the Štrpci massacre of 1993 when Serbian White Eagles massacred twenty-four Bosniak Muslims. The short follows a sole non-Bosniak who tried to stand up against the attackers. It won the Short Film Palme d’Or and Short Film at the European Film Awards. Netflix recently picked up Anuja. It follows the hardships of a gifted girl, who works alongside her sister at a garment factory in India. Often shorts featuring child actors tend to have more leeway with the branch—this could land with branch members.

Room Taken is a heartwarming story about a unique friendship between an elderly blind woman and a young immigrant. A Lien is an intense narrative about a young couple dealing with a dangerous immigration process. The social relevance of its immigration commentary could resonate, especially after an election focused heavily on immigration. Orange From Jaffa follows a young Palestinian encountering an intense Israeli checkpoint, showcasing the harsh realities of Palestinians living under Israeli occupation. All of these shorts feel strong due to the narratives and social importance they display in their filmmaking. 

Analysis Courtesy of Amripal Rai

Feature Image Credit to Universal Pictures via Reddit