There are predictable Oscar races, and then there’s whatever this was. In a season that refuses to settle, frontrunners have risen and fallen like an overcaffeinated stock market jolted by the erratic leadership of volatile economic policy (wait that sounds familiar).
With only the final hours to go before Hollywood gathers in the Dolby Theater, uncertainty still reigns supreme. If certainty is the lifeblood of Oscar punditry, then this year is an exhilarating crisis. For casual fans, cinephiles, and seasoned predictors alike, the thrill is in the unpredictability because when everything feels possible, anything can happen.
Take Emilia Pérez, the Jacques Audiard Cannes breakout that seemed poised to become an undeniable force for Netflix until the internet did what the internet does best: dig. Karla Sofía Gascón’s racist, bigoted, Islamophobic, and homophobic tweets resurfaced just as the film was at the peak of its momentum, and suddenly, the narrative shifted from acknowledging the first nomination ever for an openly trans actress to a controversy that made even the film’s most ardent supporters hesitate. It’s a stark reminder of the growing gap between internet culture and industry taste: online conversations dictate much of the awards season discourse, but Oscar voters often prove immune to the fervor of Film Twitter. The same applies to I’m Still Here, which surged to a surprise Best Picture nomination seemingly on the backs of the fervent Brazilian fanbase.
Add the tragedy of the Los Angeles wildfires, which postponed ceremonies and voting periods, and introduced an unexpected wrinkle to the awards season. While the delay was necessary and devastating, it inadvertently gave voters extra time to catch up on the films they hadn’t seen. This late-breaking window of opportunity helped fuel the last-minute surge of films like I’m Still Here. With the extra time to screen films, the Fernanda Torres-led docudrama gained traction, moving from the fringes outside a powerhouse frontrunner to the forefront of the International Feature race marred by controversy.
Can a simultaneous Internet takedown for Emilia Pérez and an Internet-fueled campaign for I’m Still Here translate to an Academy upset? With zero precursor evidence, predicting the latter is an instinctual call: stay with the 13-time nominated favorite or jump ship to the overwhelming passion pick?
That sense of unpredictability isn’t limited to just a few categories. For the first time in years, all four major feature races–Best Picture, International, Animated, and Documentary–feel genuinely competitive. Nowhere is that more apparent than in the documentary race, where No Other Land has become the most talked-about film in the category and the most politically precarious. Its deeply personal, on-the-ground perspective of the Israel-Palestine conflict has made it a flashpoint for debate, particularly in an American industry still navigating how to respond to one of the most divisive geopolitical crises in modern history. It may be the most urgent, widely discussed nominee, but will voters ultimately be hesitant to cast their ballots in its favor?
Meanwhile, Conclave, a film that already had the makings of a high-stakes awards player, found itself eerily mirroring real-world events as the Pope’s health crisis unfolds, creating a timely (or divinely orchestrated?) backdrop to its Oscar push.
At the same time, horror fans have reason to celebrate, as their beloved, long-overlooked genre has managed just its seventh-ever Best Picture nomination for The Substance paired with four for Robert Eggers’ Nosferatu. Given how often horror is dismissed by the Academy, it’s remarkable to be asking not just whether Coralie Fargeat’s body horror bombshell can win an Oscar, but how many. Furthermore, is its six-nomination haul signaling a genuine shift in taste, or is it just another anomaly in a year filled to the brim?
In the midst of all this chaos, the biggest wild card is Sean Baker. On paper, Anora seems like the clear Best Picture winner, having swept PGA, DGA, WGA, and CCA. But Conclave threw a wrench in that narrative with its SAG and BAFTA victories, creating a legitimate alternative in the final stretch. Paired with potential wins in Film Editing and Adapted Screenplay, it has the makings of a traditional Best Picture package. Now, Baker’s Oscar night could end with anywhere from zero to four wins, an outcome that encapsulates this season’s total unpredictability.
If chaos truly favors the bold, there’s also Diane Warren. Could this finally be the year that the Academy’s most beloved perpetual bridesmaid crosses the finish line? In a year where nothing has gone according to plan, it feels oddly fitting that a career win could come from the wreckage of a season where no rulebook has applied. Did a majority of Academy members watch The Six Triple Eight? Probably not, but it’s hard to rule out Warren capitalizing on the chaos because if ever there was a moment for a long-overdue career Oscar, this was it.
Speaking of long waits, four-time nominated director Chris Sanders also looks to end his drought in the Animated Feature category headlined by a David vs. Goliath showdown between Flow, a micro-budget independent cat movie, and The Wild Robot, a familiar but effective DreamWorks juggernaut. No matter which way the vote lands, Disney and Pixar’s win drought will continue after a decade of dominance.
At the heart of it all is the eternal battle between stats and gut instinct. Do you predict with your head, or with your heart? Math can tell you one thing, precedent another, and then along comes an unexpected groundswell of passion that throws every carefully calculated projection into potential disarray.
Sometimes, Oscar history is the best predictor. Other times, a hunch proves more insightful than an entire season of verifiable precursors. And so, as the final envelopes are about to be opened and winners step up to claim their golden statuettes, the real test begins: did you trust the numbers, or did you go with your instincts? Either way, in a season where chaos is the only certainty, the biggest winner of all might just be the unpredictability itself.
Article Courtesy of Danny Jarabek
Feature Image Credit to Richard Harbaugh (Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences) via The Hollywood Reporter