It’s been a while since the Supporting Actress has felt so wide open as this year’s race. There is one major figure who’s vying not only for a nomination, but a win. After that, it is a smorgasbord of actresses, hoping to break through a category that is comprised of Best Picture nominees, industry veterans, and lone nominees. Within this century, only the 2025 and 2017 Supporting Actress nominees came from Best Picture nominees. Every year has been a mixture of Picture nominees and passion picks from films that may be on the fringe of the Academy’s radar. 

This year is fascinating since there are numerous films campaigning to get two actresses nominated in the category. Since 2000, ten films have successfully had two of their respective actresses nominated in this category, with four actresses winning. (Catherine Zeta-Jones won for Chicago; Melissa Leo won for The Fighter; Octavia Spencer won for The Help; and Jamie Lee Curtis won for Everything Everywhere All At Once.)

Can Last Year’s Runner Up Become This Year’s Winner?

Bing Crosby, Peter O’Toole, Al Pacino, Paul Newman, Cate Blanchett, and Sylvester Stallone—what do all these actors have in common? All received two Oscar nominations for playing the same character, with Crosby and Newman each winning an Oscar. Crosby holds the unique distinction of both his nominations happening in consecutive years, where he won Best Actor for Going My Way (1944), followed by another Actor nomination for The Bells of St. Mary’s (1945) for his role as Father Chuck O’Malley. 

Ariana Grande, along with Cynthia Erivo, could make history by joining the ranks of Crosby and Newman of losing on their first nominations, only to win on their follow-up nominations, as Wicked: For Good seems primed for a competitive awards campaign. There’s no denying Grande seemed primed to win for Wicked (2024) as Glinda the Witch. Critics and audiences loved the film, particularly her performance, and it was not only a box office sensation but an awards contender. 

Traditionally, musicals have benefited supporting actress contenders in the past, such as Ariana DeBose, Anne Hathaway, and Jennifer Hudson, who’ve won Oscars for their musical performances. Ironically, it was another musical that bested Grande last season, as Zoe Saldaña swept the precursor awards in Globe, CC, SAG, BAFTA, and the Oscar for Emilia Perez in 2024. While Grande won’t have to be competitive with another musical performance, she will have to face tough competition from many highly prolific Best Picture contenders, and it remains to be seen if this second half of the stage musical will garner the same passion and awards support as the first film did. 

Can Dear Old Aunt Gladys Come To The Oscars?

The second biggest success story for an original horror film (outside of Sinners) for 2025 was Zach Creggor’s Weapons. The genre-bending hybrid was a sleeper hit, earning tremendous box office success, as well as critical and audience acclaim. One of the most lauded aspects was Amy Madigan’s devilish performance as Aunt Gladys—a purely evil witch who takes great joy in causing harm to an unsuspecting suburban community.

Immediately upon release, many writers and journalists took to proclaim Madigan’s performance as award-worthy, with Chris Evangelista of SlashFilm saying, “Madigan’s work in the role is delightfully twisted—she hits all the right notes to make Gladys a supremely scary movie monster.” 

Louis Pietzman of Vulture, stating, “Underneath the pounds of lipstick, eye shadow, and wig is a thrillingly committed performance from Madigan, a character actor who has seldom gotten the kind of showcase she gets here.”

Indeed, the Academy doesn’t always have the best track record when it comes to recognizing horror performances. While Demi Moore was close to winning Best Actress for The Substance last year, we’ve been let down by prior passion campaigns for Toni Collette for Hereditary (2018) and Lupita Nyong’o for Us (2019) in Best Actress nominations that failed. Yet, Madigan may have a better shot since a Best Actress nomination can be more competitive than a Supporting one.

But it’s not unprecedented for a horror performance to break through with a lone Supporting Actress nomination, as Ruth Gordon famously won for Rosemary’s Baby (1968). Not that Madigan needs to win, but the two nominations would be perfectly in line with the Academy recognizing a long-standing veteran actress, with Madigan being a previous nominee for Twice in a Lifetime (1985). 

Is it hope-dicting? Perhaps. Yet, when the field is this crowded with multiple contenders from the same film, Madigan can stand out from her competition with a performance that not only dominates the climax of Weapons but also introduces a new level of entertainment you don’t expect. Her gleeful macabre energy is the type of material a Best Supporting Actress nomination would validate. 

This is a campaign Warner Bros. will have to invest in heavily, and it may be one of the more popular performances amongst critics’ groups that will latch on as a way to keep in the conversation and be taken seriously. The support and critics groups’ wins will keep her in the conversation, and voters may be smitten by Madigan’s full-throated commitment to such a despicable movie villain you love to hate. 

Amy Madigan as Aunt Gladys in ‘Weapons,’ Credit to Warner Bros. Pictures and New Line Cinema

What Do You Get When You Have Four Films With Eight Supporting Actress Contenders?

So yes, this is tricky. Sentimental Value, Sinners, One Battle After Another, and Marty Supreme have the potential of eight actresses vying for nominations. And what’s more tricky is that all four films are predicted to be highly competitive Best Picture contenders. In all of Academy history, between the four acting categories, there has been only one instance in which two nominees from two films were nominated in the same category of the same year—the 1950 Oscars. In the Supporting Actress category, Ethel Barrymore and Ethel Waters from Pinky (1949), and Celeste Holm and Elsa Lanchester from Come to the Stable (1949) were nominated. (They all lost to Mercedes McCambridge for All The King’s Men.)

From its Cannes debut, Sentimental Value seemed the strongest candidate in garnering acting nominations for Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas. Fanning has a long track record in the industry, where many feel she is deserving of being recognized, working in arthouse films from Sofia Coppola or blockbuster franchises like this year’s Predator: Badlands. Fanning has worked for a long time, and perhaps playing a stylized version of the stereotypical Hollywood starlet in Value may lend her support. 

Lilleaas may benefit from being in a contender that can have crossover appeal with domestic and international awards voters, as it’s still difficult for non-English performers to receive acting nominations, much less a newly recognized talent like Lilleaas. The strength of Value may keep her on top of voters’ minds as they’re filling out their ballot. 

Up until Chase Infiniti was confirmed to be in the lead, many wondered if Teyana Taylor or Regina Hall could have enough support to crack into the category for One Battle After Another. With that news, this all but helps Taylor’s chances as the revolutionary radical, Perfidia Hills. Even though her character is only physically present in the first third of One Battle, her actions and presence still feel present throughout, and the film’s emotional ending is focused on her last word to Infiniti’s Willa character.

Hall may struggle with not having enough screen time, despite her giving an excellent performance in her scenes as Deandra. In a film dominated by exaggerated personalities and actors hitting high comedic or villainous notes, Deandra is a quiet voice, but one whose performance can be drowned out by other performers. 

Hailee Steinfeld and Wunmi Mosaku leave such incredible impressions in Sinners as the doomed women reeling from the traumatic actions left behind by Michael B. Jordan’s Smoke and Stack characters. Steinfeld has the benefit of being a previous nominee for her breakout performance in True Grit (2010), yet her character lacks the emotional catharsis that Mosaku’s Annie does. Sinners may be perceived more as an ensemble picture, where individual performances may be hard to break through, as Steinfled and Mosaku lack standout scenes that are separate from being part of the ensemble. Added to Warner Bros. campaign for Weapons and One Battle, Sinners may just not have the proper campaign allocated to these performances. 

Marty Supreme has not been properly screened, except for its surprise NYFF screening, so it’s hard to gauge how strong Gwyneth Paltrow and Odessa A’zion are. Reactions have been extremely positive not only for the film, but also for both their performances. A’zion has been described as a standout of the supporting cast, with Brandon Lewis of Geeks Vibe Nation describing her as the “key comedic engine” of the film.

Paltrow hasn’t received awards consideration since winning her Best Actress Oscar for Shakespeare in Love (1998), yet if Supreme becomes a major contender by the end of the year, we may see a late-surge of support for either actress emerge, similarly to Monica Barbaro’s performance receiving a nomination for A Complete Unknown (2024), despite only receiving a SAG nomination. 

Wunmi Mosaku as Annie in ‘Sinners,’ Credit to Warner Bros.

Are There More Contenders to Consider?

That was a lot, yet it’s even more amazing; there’s still a plethora of great performances to consider. Emily Blunt has been singled out for her performance in The Smashing Machine. The poor box office performance and criticisms of the writing of her character may be a difficult hurdle for Blunt to overcome, even being a prior nominee for Oppenheimer (2023). 

As of 2025, Glenn Close ties with Peter O’Toole as the most unsuccessful acting nominations at eight nominations and zero wins. What will it take for Close to win an Oscar? Hard to say, but will Wake Up Dead Man add a ninth nomination to her already extensive career? None of the Knives Out films have been successful in getting their actors nominated. There was a groundswell campaign for Janelle Monáe for 2022’s Glass Onion, as they garnered nominations and wins from critics groups and a Critics’ Choice nomination. Critics have singled out Close’s performance, and so expect Netflix to assert a campaign, as they lack any strong supporting actress contenders for their awards slate. 

Jennifer Lopez was hoping for Kiss of the Spider Woman to solidify her as an Oscar nominee, after missing out for Hustlers in 2019. Sadly, the poor box office performance, lack of marketing from its distributors, and Tonatiuh receiving praise, Lopez will have to dash her expectations. 

Let’s be real. There are five Best Picture contenders. With a buffet of contenders, anyone else able to break in for their film is a miracle. It’s quite rare for the Best Supporting Actress to be this stacked, yet many hopeful nominees will have the giant orb-shaped frontrunner in the form of Grande’s Glinda the Witch to contend for a win. I’ll just be here rooting for Gladys to pull some last-minute witchcraft and control enough voters to vote for Madigan on their ballots.

Here are my October predictions for the 2026 Oscar nominations in Best Supporting Actress:

  1. Ariana Grande – Wicked For Good
  2. Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value
  3. Amy Madigan – Weapons
  4. Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another
  5. Inga Ibsdotter Lileaas – Sentimental Value

Alternates:

  1. Odessa A’zion – Marty Supreme
  2. Gwyneth Paltrow – Marty Supreme
  3. Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
  4. Emily Blunt – The Smashing Machine 
  5. Glenn Close – Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Analysis Courtesy of Amritpal Rai

Feature Image Credited to Universal via Reactor