Welcome to the Awards Tape’s first Oscar prediction editorial. Here, our writers will be breaking down the Oscar race in extensive detail regarding certain categories, performances, films, and everything in between. To kick off this series, we will start with my breakdown of the Best Picture race so far. 

This is a weird Oscar season, and it’s hard to place why that is the case. Is it a result of the 2023 Writers and Actors Strike that delayed certain productions? Maybe. Is it that there isn’t an easy frontrunner and prognosticators can poke holes in the competing films? Certainly, some of our top contenders are small, independently produced films. That’s fairly normal. Sure, we just came off the Oppenheimer (2023) year, but recent Best Picture winners have been defined as films made outside the major studios. Everything Everywhere All at Once (2022) was produced within A24; Coda (2021) was an Apple acquisition from Sundance; Nomadland (2020) was acquired in 2019 by (then) Fox Searchlight; Parasite (2019) was a South Korean production that Neon acquired in the 2018 American film market. This year isn’t too different, if perhaps, a little askew.

Anora (2024) and The Brutalist (2024) remain at the top of the race as the big horse contenders from two of the biggest indie studios in the industry, Neon and A24, respectively. Each film has leading contenders in the acting (Mikey Madison, Adrien Brody), screenplay, and directing (Sean Baker and Brady Corbet) races. All of these ingredients make the perfect recipe to win Best Picture, plus any below-the-line crafts support they can compete. Anora has the Cannes prestige with its Palme d’Or win, while The Brutalist rides a wave of immersive theatricality revolving around an immigrant-American epic.

A24 and Neon have other contenders; Sing Sing (2024) seems to be the only film with a viable shot. The Colman Domingo-led drama is set in a real-life prison program, the Rehabilitation Through the Arts program at Sing Sing Maximum Security Prison, where incarcerated men use theater as a form of rehabilitation. A24 is still bullish on the film, promising a re-release by the end of the year, and Domingo and Clarence Maclin are in strong positions for Actor and Supporting Actor slots, respectively. The film can play as an above-the-line contender with acting and screenplay nominations; it feels secure for a Picture nomination.

Neon’s The Seed of a Sacred Fig (2024) could break out, as its writer/director Mohammad Rasoulof was sentenced to eight years by Iranian authorities, causing him to flee to Germany (which selected the film as their selection for Best International Feature). The political thriller could land Original Screenplay and Director nominations to push it into Best Picture. Last year proved more than one non-English language film can break into Best Picture.

Post-election, it’s hard not to ask if our politics will seep into voters’ minds when voting on their Oscar ballot. Perhaps it’s a coincidence Wicked (2024) is coming at the perfect time when audiences want some form of escapism, optimism, color, and hope. It sounds trite, yet most Best Picture winners tend to leave a positive impression, leaving people flying high by the end (and it also helps to make a ton of money at the box office).

Consider Slumdog Millionaire (2008) winning Best Picture after the 2008 election. There was a buzzing euphoria of an underdog galvanizing a win from a devastated country, much like Jamal’s ark in the film. Argo (2012), which came after Obama’s 2012 election win (even the First Lady presented it with the Best Picture Oscar), was a film about the powers of government and Hollywood working together to save six U.S. Diplomats during the Iran-Hostage Crisis.

It’s hard to deny Wicked being the right film at the right time to benefit from a demoralized mood that can rank high on a preferential ballot. The last Broadway musical adaptation to win Best Picture was Chicago (2002). Wicked may struggle to get Director and Screenplay nominations due to the significant demographic changes in the Academy voters, which could hurt its chances of winning Best Picture, and it doesn’t help that this is part one of a two-part film. Recent populist films by major studios like Barbie (2023) and Top Gun: Maverick (2022) were embraced by awards bodies yet struggled to find a clear pathway to win Best Picture. Wicked may stumble the same way.

Image Courtesy of The Hollywood Reporter via Universal 

There is another musical in the race: Emilia Perez (2024). With an acquisition from the Cannes Film Festival (winning The Jury Prize and Best Actress), Netflix is clear-eyed that this is their main horse. Despite its divisive critical and online reactions, there’s something else at play with the crime-drama musical hybrid. If Green Book (2018) winning Best Picture has taught us anything, most people in the industry are not online and in tune with controversies associated with a film. They simply vote for what they like. Perez has demonstrated its ability to deflect reactions, especially winning the runner-up for TIFF’s Audience Award (Anora placed third).

If we’re talking about literal elections, you can’t get anything more relevant than Conclave (2024). Edward Berger’s chamber thriller about the election of a new pope feels like a perfect representation of the conundrum of elections and personalities clashing through volatile processes. Berger’s All Quiet on the Western Front (2022) was a huge splash in 2022, winning four Oscars. Focus Features has propelled the adult drama to critical and box office acclaim, as one of the few dramas that plays well in above and below-the-line categories. Ralph Fiennes hopes to win his first Oscar and the film’s screenplay is poised to win Best Adapted Screenplay.

The only Sundance film in play is Searchlight’s A Real Pain (2024). Written and directed by Jesse Eisenberg, the indie drama features a phenomenal supporting performance from Kieran Culkin (fresh from his Succession high), that, while it’s too small to be competitive for Best Picture like other Sundance darlings before it, makes sense when filling out a one-through-ten ballot. Searchlight also has the Bob Dylan biopic, A Complete Unknown (2024), featuring a stellar Timothee Chalamet performance. Music biopics have their place in the awards race, as Elvis (2022) and Bohemian Rhapsody (2018) have proven to play well with Oscar voters, even if the narratives are similar.

Speaking of Timothee, remember Dune: Part Two (2024)? It’s still in the race, albeit, far lower due to its unlikely chance of replicating the same six wins its predecessor accomplished. Dune (2021) benefited from a lack of real competition to eat into its awards haul; it’s not the same scenario this year. But Part Two will have its fans and will be featured in numerous below-the-line categories, pushing it to a possible Best Picture nomination. The Academy loves to feature more than one blockbuster in its lineup.

Gladiator II (2024) hoped to achieve a similar status. Like many Ridley Scott films, it seems it will be relegated to technical nominations with one saving grace of a potential Supporting Actor nomination for Denzel Washington.

Some wild cards could break, depending on their reception. One such is Nickel Boys (2024). The RaMell Ross adaption of the Pulitzer-prize-winning novel by Colson Whitehead seems to benefit greatly from critics’ circles that may rally around his bold vision of two young Black men surviving an abusive reform school for boys in 1960s Florida. It’s hard to gauge whether its first-person POV will be difficult with awards voters, yet the critical reception and the real-life narrative will be hard to ignore. Amazon MGM Studios is coming off two years where their challenging adult dramas have landed Best Picture nominations and won Best Adapted Screenplay awards in Women Talking and American Fiction.

Not often is a horror film brought into the awards conversation, yet Mubi’s The Substance (2024) has proved formidable. Winning Best Screenplay at Cannes to being an unmitigated box office success, Coralie Fargeat’s body-horror feminist film about addiction with unrealistic beauty standards features an Oscar-worthy performance from Demi Moore (who is in the thick of the Best Actress conversation). The path seems apparent, as critics and audiences have continued the enthusiasm train since September. It’s hard to imagine an Academy voting body that has never recognized an extremist horror film of this type landing a Best Picture nomination. To its benefit, It is the only female-directed film with a good chance at a nomination, and every year since 2019, a film directed by a woman has landed a Best Picture nomination.

I’ve toyed around with the last slot, deliberating September 5 (2024) and Challengers (2024). Yet I can’t help but think after a year when two non-English language films landed Best Picture nominations, what’s preventing one from happening again this year, especially when the category seems weak? I’m Still Here (2024) could fill this spot. It’s a major box office hit in Brazil, featuring an Oscar-worthy performance with Fernanda Torres. It’s the first film in twelve years from Walter Salles, and it will be Brazil’s entry for Best International Feature. Sony Pictures Classics are stealthy campaigners even when we least suspect it, where they managed campaigns for Parallel Mothers (2021), The Father (2020), Call Me By Your Name (2017), and Amour (2012). The film about the real-life story of Eunice Paiva and the disappearance of her husband in 1970s Brazil under a military dictatorship is a long shot, and surely the boldest pick that has not appeared in many pundits’ lists. Why not take a leap of faith?

Below is my prediction as of now. To view the rest of the Rolling Tape’s Oscar predictions, please visit our Oscar Board.

Best Picture Frontrunners

  1. Anora
  2. Conclave
  3. The Brutalist
  4. Wicked
  5. Emilia Perez
  6. Sing Sing
  7. Dune: Part Two
  8. A Real Pain
  9. Nickel Boys
  10. I’m Still Here

Films Close to Cracking Best Picture

  1. The Seed of a Sacred Fig
  2. A Complete Unknown
  3. The Substance
  4. Nosferatu (2024)
  5. Blitz (2024)
  6. Gladiator II
  7. September 5 (2024)
  8. Saturday Night (2024)
  9. The Room Next Door (2024)
  10. The Piano Lesson (2024)

Article Courtesy of Amritpal Rai

Image courtesy of Indiewire via Neon