As the red carpet is unrolled once more along the Croisette, the 78th Cannes Film Festival has been the spotlight of attention for the global film community over the last week. The world’s most prestigious stage for celebrating international cinema is also the unofficial starting line of awards season.
The festival’s legacy as a platform for international acclaim has never been stronger than after last year, when Sean Baker’s Anora captured the Palme d’Or and went on to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards–the second time a NEON-distributed film has pulled off the rare feat in just six years. Emilia Pérez and The Substance, after winning the Best Actress and Screenplay prizes, respectively, also went on to successful awards season runs.
The biggest story of the festival is whether anyone will challenge NEON’s unprecedented streak of five straight Palme d’Or wins, as they are poised to continue cementing their international distribution dominance with multiple frontrunner contenders on their slate. MUBI has asserted its position as a worthwhile adversary, purchasing rights to In Competition contenders including Sound of Falling, Die, My Love, The History of Sound, and The Mastermind. NEON, alternatively, holds rights to Sentimental Value and Alpha, and recently acquired rights to The Secret Agent and It Was Just an Accident. The two distributors have dominated Cannes dealmaking, clearly vying for this year’s Palme d’Or winner to be revealed by the jury at the end of the festival.
This year’s main competition jury, presided over by French actress Juliette Binoche, brings together an impressive roster of voices–Halle Berry, Jeremy Strong, Indian filmmaker Payal Kapadia, Korean auteur Hong Sang-soo, Mexican director Carlos Reygadas, Italian actress Alba Rohrwacher, Franco-Moroccan writer Leïla Slimani, and Congolese documentarian Dieudo Hamadi. The group’s diverse tastes, background, and values will shape which films are elevated to Cannes gold and platformed for awards runs in the coming months.
Here are our predictions for the 78th Cannes Film Festival Award Winners:
Best Screenplay
Two Prosecutors (2025) directed by Sergei Loznitsa
Described as a “petrifying portrait of Stalinist insurrection,” and a “chilling soviet drama [that] is a bleak warning from history,” Two Prosecutors seems to be a damning commentary of authoritarianism during a tumultuous chaotic period with U.S. politics and international conflicts abroad. Set in 1937, the film follows a young, idealistic Soviet prosecutor seeking justice for a prisoner during Stalin’s Great Purge. Adapted from the book of the same name, the film’s positive critical reception and historical context could prove to be a worthy winner for its screenplay.
Best Performance by an Actress
Jennifer Lawrence in Die, My Love (2025) directed by Lynne Ramsay
Lynne Ramsay is no stranger to Cannes, with her last two features (You Were Never Really Here (2017) and We Need To Talk About Kevin (2011) playing in competition and Ratcatcher (1999) playing in Un Certain Regard. Although Die, My Love was a late addition to the lineup, likely due to Ramsay editing the final cut until the last minute, there was always confidence her latest project would find its way to the Palais. Featuring the story of a mother (Jennifer Lawrence) struggling with postpartum depression, the film received some conflicting reactions, but the common denominator has been Lawrence’s brilliance. “The second coming of Jennifer Lawrence is here, and it’s astounding,” “…bound together by Lawrence’s confident, fearless gravity.” The Oscar winner could be headed toward a Cannes win and a launchpad toward her 5th nomination.
Best Performance by an Actor
Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent (2025) directed by Kleber Mendonça Filho
After I’m Still Here’s miraculous run to a Best Picture nomination and Best International Feature win at the Academy Awards last year, Brazil is riding high with its awards success. Kleber Mendonça Filho’s The Secret Agent is poised to continue that path after NEON’s mid-festival acquisition. Following Marcelo (Wagner Moura), a teacher caught in the political turmoil of the final years of the Brazilian military dictatorship, Moura’s performance spans multiple time periods and has been called “a stellar return to Brazilian cinema after several years away.” Mendonça previously won the Jury Prize for Bacurau in 2019, and with an actor-heavy jury paired with the political relevancy of the film, Moura could be where the film is rewarded.
Best Director
Director Bi Gan for Resurrection (2025)
The Best Director Prize at Cannes has always felt relegated to the most auteur and cinematic film of the competition lineup. Think Park Chan-wook winning for Decision to Leave (2022), Leos Carax for Annette (2021), or Paweł Pawlikowski for Cold War (2018). These filmmakers’ cinematic flourishes come alive within each film, making them memorable in conveying the epic scope of their narratives. Bi Gan’s fourth feature, Resurrection, comes after a seven-year break from Long Day’s Journey Into Night (2018). It has been described as a “post-apocalyptic tale on memory,” and “a six-part fever dream where a movie monster drifts through China’s 100-year history.” This is a shot-in-the-dark prediction, as it could prove divisive, yet that could further prove Bi Gan as a singular directing voice deserving of an award.
Jury Prize
Sound of Falling (2025) by Mascha Schilinski
“Astonishing“, “Mesmerizing“, and “arthouse filmmaking with a capital A.” All of these words are used to describe Mascha Schilinski’s second feature film, Sound of Falling. It has received significant critical praise for its bold vision in a multigenerational narrative that follows four girls who have lived on the same German farm for a century. This film has become one of the critical darlings out of the festival, very similar to All We Imagine As Light (2024), which premiered to similar acclaim and later won the Grand Prix at last year’s festival. It also boasts the highest Metacritic score of the 2025 Cannes Film Festival so far, with a 91. Although it’s only Schilinksi’s second film, and has an avant-garde sensibility, the reactions and reviews could translate into the film placing in the top three selection for the Cannes jury, especially after MUBI’s recent acquisition.
Grand Prix
It Was Just an Accident (2025) by Jafar Panahi
Jafar Panahi has been a staple of the Cannes Film Festival for thirty years. From winning prizes for The White Balloon (1995), Crimson Gold (2003), and 3 Faces (2018), Panahi has demonstrated his directing prowess as a transgressive filmmaker willing to criticize the Iranian government, and sadly, enduring the consequences for his art. Panahi returns to the festival after being released from a 2022 arrest, and a seven-year absence since his 2010 imprisonment and house arrest due to Iran’s censorship laws, yet that hasn’t prevented the filmmaker from making his art in the last decade, often relying on secrecy and smuggling his films out of Iran.
It Was Just An Accident premiered to a ten-minute standing ovation, with the filmmaker in attendance. Critics call the movie “a powerful statement for humanity,” and “a taut and twisting revenge thriller loaded with heavyweight ethical quandaries.” I do believe Panahi will walk away with a major prize. The reverence and respect he has as an artist who’s endured prison for artistic expression will have an emotional resonance, the same way Mohammad Rasoulof fled Iran last year, as The Seed of a Sacred Fig (2024) premiered at Cannes.
It should be noted that this year’s Cannes Jury President, Juliette Binoche, is a vocal supporter of Panahi. During the 2010 Cannes Festival, Bincohe cried at Panahi’s absence due to a hunger strike, calling the filmmaker a “bona fide revolutionary.” Binoche held up a poster of his name upon winning Best Actress at Cannes for Certified Copy (2010). Do not be surprised if Binoche exercises her influence with the jury to propel Panahi to win the highest prize possible, including the Palme d’Or. And this comes off of Neon securing the distribution rights for the film. Panahi’s struggles and hardships seemed to have culminated in this moment; he is walking away with a prize.
Palme d’Or
Sentimental Value (2025) directed by Joachim Trier
If you asked almost anyone before the Cannes Film Festival this year, many people would have told you that Sentimental Value would win the coveted Palme d’Or. This could have been for many reasons, but mainly two.
First, director Joachim Trier was coming off an acclaimed film in The Worst Person in the World (2021), which won the Best Actress prize at the Cannes Film Festival that year and went on to receive two Academy Award nominations.
Second, and the main reason for many people, is that NEON was the distributor of this film. NEON has had an unprecedented run of Palme d’Or wins, with a total of five straight, and two of them even went on to win Best Picture at the Oscars. The reactions are now out, and they are easily the best reactions out of the festival. Not only did Sentimental Value get a 19-minute standing ovation, but the film, straight out of its premiere, is being hailed as “a layered masterpiece”, “exquisite”, and “the best movie at the 2025 Cannes Film Festival”. The film’s performances from Renate Reinsve and Stellan Skargård were also praised for being some of the best of the year.
Prior to Sentimental Value’s premiere, no film had garnered universal support. That changed on Wednesday evening. The critical reception, along with the respect for the Norwegian auteur and his body of work, makes it a very logical pick for the Palme d’Or. If NEON pulls off a sixth straight Palme d’Or win, it most definitely will be a “Joachim Trier Summer” as Charli XCX declared at the end of her Coachella set.
Analysis Courtesy of Danny Jarabek, Amritpal Rai, & Owen Wilczek
Feature Image Credit to NEON via THR; Still from ‘Sentimental Value’