With festival season on the horizon, it’s no surprise that there is the behemoth presence of Netflix. In the past nine years, Netflix has amassed 116 nominations, winning only sixteen. Since 2018, Netflix has been a staple in the Best Picture race by betting heavily on established auteurs like Alfonso Cuaron, Noah Baumbach, Martin Scorsese, Jane Campion, David Fincher, and more. Yet, the elusive Best Picture prize has consistently exceeded their grasp. Even when it seemed they were inches away from something awards/critics heavy as The Power of the Dog (2021)—the film would win a flurry of Best Picture prizes from critics’ groups, the Golden Globes, and the Baftas—Apple TV+ bested them in their sophomore year with the audience-friendly Coda (2021).
Some say there is a stigma with Netflix with how much they’ve radically changed the entertainment industry and made streaming prevalent in people’s lives. Yet, audiences embrace their films yearly, even when their “auteur” picks are divisive. Look no further than in 2022, when artistically minded dramas like White Noise (2022) and Bardo (2022) while the crowd-pleasing Glass Onion (2022) fell by the wayside. But it was All Quiet on The Western Front (2022) that emerged in late December (thanks to an organic campaign of people loving the movie and mentioned in a plethora of shortlists by Academy and BAFTA voters) to net itself nine Oscar nominations and four wins, becoming the most Oscar wins for a Netflix film. Indeed, the preferential ballot of how Best Picture is determined remains Netflix’s most significant obstacle, less so than any stigma people may have regarding steaming services.
Thanks to their unwavering determination, 2023 seems poised to be the most stacked slate Netflix has offered in terms of awards contenders. It’s still too early to guesstimate whether any of their Oscar hopefuls will appeal to awards voters, as the competition is leveling up with culturally resonant hits like Barbie (2023) and Oppenheimer (2023) while the A24 indie darling Past Lives (2023) continues to be discovered. With the Venice and Toronto Film Festival set to debut a few recognizable projects movie fans have been anticipating, I examine the slate Netflix will set forth this awards season. If last awards season has taught us, there’s always at least one Netflix project that is bound to make a play for Best Picture. Here is a thorough examination of what the streaming service offers that is not a $200 million actioner no one wants to watch.
11. Leave the World Behind (2023)
Adapted from the book of the same name (a finalist for the 2020 National Book Award for Fiction), the film stars Julia Roberts and Ethan Hawke as an upper-middle-class family renting a vacation home in a remote part of Rhode Island. Their luxury vacation is interrupted by the owners of the Airbnb, played by Mahershala Ali and Myha’la Herrold, who bring news of an unprecedented blackout in New York City. The narrative unfolds as a clashing of classes, races, and personalities, as all forms of communication (phone, internet, radio, television) have stopped working, and more eerie events take shape. The two families are confronted with the notion that something terrible is happening, but can they trust each other? The film is written and directed by Sam Esmail, the creative force behind Mr. Robot (2015). The film could be another starry vehicle for big-name talent involved in a genre film; the film is expected to release in December and has no announcement at current festivals. It’s hard not to consider a high-profile film being released by Netflix at the end of the year. It can certainly make a play for acting nominations, as well as a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination based on how much the novel is respected.
10. El Conde (2023)
With the news that Chile has selected The Settlers (2023) for its pick in the Best International race, it’s almost sad not to consider Pablo Larraín’s black comedy horror film in which he depicts Augusto Pinochet as an undying vampire that has decided to die due to complicated family matters. Larrain has been a tremendous fixture not just in domestic cinema but specifically in Chilean cinema, as his No (2012) was the first Chilean film nominated for Best International Feature. Additionally, his producing efforts on A Fantastic Woman (2018) helped it become the country’s first Oscar win. The only aspect that seems potentially possible for the dynamic genre blend is probably Edward Lachman’s black-and-white cinematography. The Cinematographer branch of the Academy has a strong affinity for black-and-white and usually will try to include a contender, even if it’s the only nomination for the film (The Lighthouse (2019) being a recent example). The film will have its world premiere at the Venice Film Festival.
9. Pain Hustlers (2023)
Netflix scooped up the global rights for this pharmaceutical crime drama for $50 million at the 2022 Cannes Film Festival, starring Emily Blunt and directed by David Yates of Harry Potter fame. The story follows Blunt as Liza Drake, a high school dropout who lands a job at Insy, a failing pharmaceutical startup in Florida targeting cancer patients with life-saving drugs. She soon climbs the levers of success, as her instinctual pursuit for sales and success lands the company in the eyes of Wall Street but unravels untold levels of criminal negligence and conspiracies as they find themselves in court for their deceptive sales tactics. In the age where we’ve watched miniseries that delve into the corrupt nature of misappropriated drugs and fake gurus in The Dropout (2022) and Dopesick (2022), Pain Hustlers could be treading on familiar ground. Yet, for such a high sale by Netflix (at a time when they were reeling from their dramatic stock price crash), and that it allows Emily Blunt a chance to be front center for such a morally complex role, there could be a chance for Blunt to net her first Oscar nomination.
Coming off the smashing success of Oppenheimer, it may seem her Oscar chances lie in the Supporting Actress category, yet I’m not entirely convinced, considering her role is still limited to moments rather than an overarching role. Pain Hustlers may allow her to play a character similar to the lines of DiCaprio’s Wolf of Wall Street (2013) slimeball. Her best chance may be a supporting nomination in Nolan’s mega success, but I would keep an eye on Hustlers. The film will have its world premiere at the Toronto Film Festival.
8. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (2023)
Fresh off their first win for Best Animated Feature for Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (2022), Netflix’s slate for animated contenders continues with the summer fan-favorite Nimona (2023). Still, their biggest hope for the category lies in the sequel to the classic Oscar-winning Chicken Run (2000). One of the longest gestating follow-ups to such a beloved classic stop-motion animated film, Dawn of the Nugget finds Ginger, Rocky, and all their friends in the paradise they escaped to from Tweedy’s farm. Ginger and Rocky have their own little chicken named Molly. Their idyllic sanctuary is threatened by a new menacing force making its way inland with an industrial-style factory that makes a new product: chicken nuggets.
Peter Lord and Nick Park, the original directors of the first film, are not returning. Instead, Sam Fell is stepping in with his first solo-directing venture after helming ParaNorman (2012) and Flushed Away (2006) with other collaborators. The film is slated to premiere worldwide at the London Film Festival, the same method Pinocchio began. However, the competition is much fiercer than last year. Across the Spider-Verse (2023) and The Boy and the Heron (2023) are the big juggernauts threatening Dawn of the Nugget’s awards prospects. But it’s still essential to consider Netflix’s animation efforts, as it seems to be the one facet that always finds itself part of the awards conversation.
7. Society of the Snow (2023)
Based on the real-life tragedy of the Uruguayan flight crash in the Andes mountains, survivors of the Uruguayan Rugby team had to survive exposure to the elements, starvation, and resorting to cannibalism to stay alive. Famously adapted in Frank Marshall’s Alive (1993), it seems J.A. Bayona intends to make the story more visceral and emotionally damaging and downplay the sensationalist aspect of the iconic film. Coming from a background of gothic horror of The Orphanage (2007) and tackling another real-life survival tragedy in The Impossible (2012), which netted Naomi Watts a Best Actress nomination, Society of the Snow could bring Bayona back into the Oscar conversation. Society of the Snow will be the closing film for the Venice Film Festival, and this seems to be Netflix’s only international contender, having won the category recently with All Quiet and Roma (2018). Depending on how the material is handled, this could be a major player in the international race for the country of Spain that sees the likes of Anatomy of a Fall (2023) and The Zone of Interest (2023) hailing from Cannes with major critical (and Palme) accolades.
6. Fair Play (2023)
Debuting earlier at the Sundance Film Festival to major acclaim and hype for the two lead performances of Alden Ehrenreich and Phoebe Dynvor, Netflix quickly picked up the global rights in a record-making deal of $20 million, being the biggest acquisition of the festival. The film follows an engaged couple that keeps their relationship a secret at a competitive hedge fund run by Eddie Marsan. However, Dynvor is unexpectedly promoted above Ehrenreich, thus altering the power dynamics that threaten to unravel the couples’ love for each other. Fair Play marks the debut of writer/director Chloe Domont, and the film was praised for its smart portrayal of the fractured couple that delves into gender politics, male egos, and workplace dominance, all elevated by two captivating performances. It’s clear between the high-dollar acquisition and holding onto the film for a Fall release (the film will have its international premiere at the Toronto Film Festival), Netflix is hoping to shape this Sundance indie darling into a powerhouse awards player. The two performances and its sharply written screenplay could make it a play for those nominations. Psychological thrillers have more difficulty climbing over Academy biases, something Gone Girl (2014) learned the hard way. There is a trajectory where it could go on to earn a single nomination or be completely blanked. Kudos to Netflix for shelling out a pretty penny for a film they’re mightily confident in.
5. May December (2023)
Speaking of acquisitions, the last notable buying was when they acquired only the North American rights for Todd Haynes’s May December. Starring Natalie Portman, Julianne Moore, and Charles Melton, the film follows Elizabeth (Portman), an actress researching Gracie (Moore), who twenty years ago began a relationship with a seventh grader at the age of thirty-six. Elizabeth plans on portraying her in a film. Now happily married, Gracie and her young husband, Joe (Melton), reside in the same place of the scandal. Viewers described the film as a hybrid of an absurdist human drama and comic melodrama of tabloid journalism and character interrogation. The film surprised many viewers at its Cannes debut, with many unsure of how to approach the film, but the reactions leaned more enthusiastic than negative. The film is the opener for the New York Film Festival. Even at his most prodigious, Todd Haynes could never seem to crack the Academy—Carol (2015), possibly his most celebrated, netted six Oscar nominations but failed to gain a Best Picture or Director nomination. He only has one nomination under his belt in Best Original Screenplay for Far From Heaven (2002). Netflix could position this film as a chance to net acting nominations for its central three performances, along with a possible Haynes director or a Best Picture nomination. Seeing how they campaign this film amidst the rest of their slate will be interesting.
4. The Killer (2023)
Quite possibly the most exciting film to come out of the Fall Festival, David Fincher reteams with Se7en (1995) scribe Andrew Kevin Walker in adapting the graphic novel of the same name that follows a trained assassin (Michael Fassbender). As he carries out detailed and efficient assassinations, he slowly loses his mind and tries to grapple with psychological torment. Not much has been released about the film—no trailer, no poster, no more plot details—only a sprinkling of crisp, high-resolute images showcasing Fassbender’s return to the screen after a 4-year absence—in detailed costumes—looking sinister and lethal. After his last Netflix feature, Mank (2020), this marks a radical return to form for the skilled craftsman, bringing along his Oscar-winning cinematographer, Erik Messerschmidt, and his frequent collaborators such as two-time Oscar-winning film editor Kirk Baxter, and two-time winning composers Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross. The film will debut at the Venice Film Festival, and with already so many eyes tuned to this thriller, it could upend some Oscar predictions. As noted earlier, this genre doesn’t fare too well with Academy voters, but there’s no denying his films still manage to gain technical nominations across the board. Another similar Fincher film is his The Girl with a Dragon Tattoo (2011) remake, which landed five nominations without a Best Picture nomination. Could The Killer meet the same fate? Possible, but with Dune: Part 2 (2024) now reshuffled to next year, that opens the below-the-line potential for it to net numerous technical nominations that could make it a significant awards player, even if Fincher’s usual storytelling will leave Academy members feeling cold and disturbed.
3. Nyad (2023)
In one of the three major biopic dramas Netflix will distribute, Nyad tells the incredible true story of Diana Nyad, who became the first person to swim the 110-mile distance from Cuba to Florida without a shark cage at the age of sixty-four. Nyad is played by Academy veteran Annette Bening, who herself is sixty-five. Having trained immensely to prepare for the role, this will undoubtedly be the most physically demanding acting performance of her career. One hopes to find the 4-time Oscar nominee going home a long overdue statue. Jodie Foster plays Bonnie Stoll, Nyad’s coach and longtime friend. The biopic was one of the last developed projects by Lisa Nishimura, a beacon of independent adult dramas and documentaries before departing Netflix in March 2023. Sports dramas have their fair successes at the Academy but sadly tend to follow familiar story beats that can appear formulaic. Still, they have yielded success. Will Smith’s Oscar win for King Richard (2021) is a recent example.
The film is directed by the documentary duo Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, the minds behind the thrillingly immersive Free Solo (2018) and The Rescue (2021). Indeed, they will translate their filmmaking abilities to their first feature-length effort, hopefully making Nyad feel more different and exciting as biopic dramas are concerned. The film is expected to be part of the Telluride Film Festival as its world premiere and will have its international debut at the Toronto Film Festival. Best Actress and Supporting Actress will be the main leading contentions for Bening and Foster, respectively. One aspect to look out for is its Best Picture chances as an inspirational true story. Along with what’s expected to be beautiful photography by Claudio Miranda, we could see the Oscar winner with a Best Cinematography nomination as well.
2. Rustin (2023)
George C. Wolfe returns this Oscar season, leveling up with a biopic about Bayard Rustin, a gay civil rights activist and strategist who helped organize the 1963 March on Washington for jobs and freedom. Colman Domingo, a noted character actor, will take on the role of Rustin, with the film’s screenplay co-written by Dustin Lance Black, the Oscar-winning writer of Milk (2008). The film is part of the overall production deal with Obama’s production company and hopes to be the first of many vehicles. Wolfe’s Ma Rainey Black’s Bottom (2020) won two Oscars, with leading contenders for Viola Davis and the late Chadwick Boseman for Actress and Actor, respectively. The most exciting aspect is to have Colman Domingo front and center in an awards vehicle that can net the talent his first nomination and possibly a win. While Ma Rainey didn’t gain a Best Picture nomination, having Rustin not based on a play should help Wolfe’s chances at showcasing his filmmaking capabilities. With the film being a great period piece, many technical crafts categories, such as Production design, costumes, and hair and makeup, should make it into the conversation, like what Ma Rainey pulled off. The film will have its world premiere at the Telluride Film Festival, followed by its international premiere at the Toronto Film Festival. Rustin is one of Netflix’s higher horses in the awards race and one that will flex how much their strength lies in what could be perceived as Oscar bait.
1. Maestro (2023)
Undoubtedly, this is Netflix’s highest awards priority and potential for most success (at least on paper). There has been some skepticism as to how much of an overarching awards film this could be, but in terms of the pedigree, it has the following: Bradley Cooper comes back to not only star as Leonard Bernstein, but it also marks his second directorial effort after his much-lauded A Star Is Born (2018); Steven Spielberg, Martin Scorsese, and Cooper are producers; Carrey Mulligan co-stars (and possibly the film’s focus) as Bernstein’s wife, Felicia Montealegre; the Oscar-winning co-writer of Spotlight (2015), Josh Singer, is writing the screenplay; Matthew Libatique serves as cinematographer, and legendary two-time Oscar winner Kazu Hiro, will provide the film’s prosthetics and makeup design. It’s almost a parody of how much of an Oscar vehicle this film, premiering at Venice, is set to be. There’s no denying the industry has love for Bradley Cooper. Already a nine-time Oscar nominee, this awards season seems to be leading up to him walking the Dolby Theater and winning his first Oscar.
The film will chronicle the relationship between Bernstein and Montealegre as Bernstein’s career rises while working on projects like West Side Story (1961) and On the Waterfront (1954). Regarding Oscar prospects, we’re talking the kitchen sink: Best picture, director, actor, actress, original screenplay, film editing, cinematography, production design, costume design, makeup and hair, and maybe sound. Not all will pan out, but the film will mark a focal point in Netflix’s campaign strategy in terms of what the ceiling holds for the much-anticipated biopic drama.
Article Courtesy of Amritpal Rai
Feature Image credit to Netflix via Variety; from ‘Maestro’
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