Every year a collective groan can be heard as outlets and prognosticators rush to release their predictions for the next Oscars an entire calendar year away. After six-plus months of a long and arduous awards season, the last thing we want to hear about is going right back into predictions mode, especially without having seen any of the so-called major contenders slated for release later in the year. So, to mitigate this sentiment and maintain our sanity, I’m doing exactly that with a few more months of breathing room to let the awards tide settle and have a marginally more effective pulse on the direction of a few titles from the first half of the year.
At this point, a set of Academy Awards predictions for the upcoming ceremony eight months ahead is as much an exercise in futility as it is an act of comedy to look back in hindsight and see just how much the awards season landscape will have changed in the upcoming months. A prime example of this is the headline film on many of these publications is Martin Scorsese’s neo-western, Killers of the Flower Moon, which was also in many way-too-early predictions for this year until it was delayed by Apple to 2023. Now with a Cannes premiere in the rear-view window, the film is locked and loaded yet again to be the contender with the highest profile pedigree as the year begins to take shape, but at the same time, we must be aware of the volatility and unpredictable nature of what is to come.
As we have seen in the past two years, notoriety and high-profile industry recognition early in the season do not necessarily translate to major wins come Oscar night in recent memory. Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog was a consistent precursor favorite for most of the season, only to be dethroned by CODA at the final hour, leaving the presiding favorite for most of the season, one for twelve in wins to nominations. Similarly, Steven Spielberg’s personal family drama The Fabelmans was viewed as the clear consensus Oscar film through TIFF, where it won the prestigious People’s Choice Award but seemed to peak on the festival circuit before slowly fading to its fate with zero Oscar wins.
As these two recent case studies demonstrate, pre-festival predictions in this era of the Academy might as well not be called predictions at all but rather an educated gamble where the house is overwhelmingly likely to win. The Academy membership base has changed, and we are still developing a sense of how this new group will vote year to year with new trends emerging. However, there is still value in assessing the playing field at the beginning of the season to have a better understanding of what changed and why when the chips ultimately fall. Think of this as the control group—what we can assess based on past outcomes, history, and the limited information we have about these films. As with any successful scientific experiment, a basis of comparison is necessary to fully understand the variables at play. While the Oscars are far from scientific, we can still gain valuable insight by gauging the playing field before the opening whistle.
In this 2024 Oscar outlook, I will classify this list into four categories. The Major Players: those with the strongest Best Picture profile by traditional metrics. The Next in Line: those in contention with a variable factor holding it back. The Dark Horses: those under the radar that could sneak into the conversation. And the Let-Downs: those with the suspected profile of a Major Player that I’m betting against. Reputation and pedigree of cast and crew are essential ingredients at this point in the race, but after consecutive years with a Sundance breakout and SXSW star catching the right spark that fed the flame to Best Picture wins, we are forced to look beyond the typical Academy fare to find what might reign supreme come next March. This list is intended to be a survey of a brief glimpse into a handful of films that highlight the extremes of their relative category. Will the ultimate Best Picture even appear in this list? It’s entirely possible that it won’t, but only time will tell.
The Major Players
Killers of the Flower Moon
After being set for an October release, there are few question marks surrounding the profile of Martin Scorsese’s adaptation of the non-fiction novel of the same name, which details events surrounding the “Reign of Terror” on the Osage tribe in the 1920s that got the FBI involved. Featuring a powerhouse cast including Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro as Scorsese’s returning mainstays alongside Lily Gladstone, Jesse Plemons, and recent Oscar winner Brendan Fraser, the pedigree of Killers of the Flower Moon is off the charts. It is arguably the safest bet of the year for a Best Picture nomination, but as demonstrated of late, that is not necessarily the best position to be in heading into awards season. We will see how a Cannes launch and Apple-backed promotion will affect its trajectory.
The Color Purple
Building off an 11-nomination haul in its original adaptation is hard to look past, and Blitz Bazawule’s musical adaptation of Alice Walker’s novel has just that thanks to Steven Spielberg’s 1985 effort in addition to a Tony, Emmy, and Grammy haul for Cynthia Erivo in its 2005 musical adaptation. With two accolades fueled iterations, The Color Purple is primed to raise the bar yet again with a star-studded cast including Halle Bailey, Fantasia, Colman Domingo, Taraji P. Henson, Danielle Brooks, H.E.R., Ciara, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Corey Hawkins, Jon Batiste, and Louis Gossett Jr. Bazawule is a wildcard component with no English language films under his belt, but with the backing of the likes of Steven Spielberg and Oprah Winfrey producing, Bazawule’s voice as a filmmaker will be tested at the highest stage with a run at painting the Oscars purple a formidable possibility.
Past Lives
One of the few films on this list to have been received and widely talked about because of its Sundance premiere is Celine Song’s directorial debut, Past Lives. Telling the story of two childhood friends who reunite as adults, the film appears to be framed as A24’s top awards priority this year and coming off a season that ended with the boutique indie studio taking home nine Academy Awards, including every above-the-line category, the studio is poised to make another run at the top prize. With a June 2 release date now in the past, the studio appears to be following suit with an earlier wide release, not dissimilar from the formula that propelled Everything Everywhere All at Once to glory through a slow-roll word of mouth and critical passion strategy. Featuring a star-making turn from Greta Lee is a subtle investigation of love, destiny, and the minutiae that changes the trajectory of our lives and relationships. Past Lives is the kind of storytelling you can’t help but feel romantic about. We’ll see if Song and the golden statue share 8,000 years of in-yun.
Oppenheimer
Fueled by one of the great dual marketing campaigns of the last decade, Christopher Nolan and Universal’s half of the “Barbenheimer” craze should see its awards stock max out at nothing short of a run at Best Picture. The director, known for his IMAX spectacle and confiscating narrative structures, is drawing on his singular ability for mind-bending imagery paired with a more grounded storytelling approach through the biopic format of its titular figure. A dark and depraved examination of the psychology of power, Oppenheimer may not best its July 21 pink-clad counterpart at the box office, but all indications, including powerhouse performances across the board, suggest it will have a far better shot at the glory come March.
Other Major Players include Barbie, Napoleon, and Rustin.
The Next in Line
Poor Things
It’s been five years since writer/director Yorgos Lanthimos released a film, the last being Oscar-winning The Favourite. He is back this year with Poor Things, described as a tale of love, discovery, and scientific daring featuring healthy doses of eccentric flare that few directors could pull off. Fortunately, Lanthimos is one of them. With star power across the cast, including Emma Stone, Willem Dafoe, and Margaret Qualley, Searchlight will be hoping that the Greek director’s unique brand of absurdism won’t be too difficult to swallow for Academy voters. If I could look into a crystal ball, I would see the film as more of a screenplay/performance play.
The Holdovers
Alexander Payne is a clear Academy darling with seven Oscar nominations (and two wins) to his name and several additional accolades to his filmography. After the first trailer glimpse into the coming-of-age dramedy starring Paul Giamatti, Da’Vine Joy Randolph, and Dominic Sessa, the Sideways writer, and director appears to be in a closer return to form after the no-show for 2017’s Downsizing. Look out for Payne to appeal once again to Academy voters with The Holdovers.
Dune: Part Two
Few stories have attempted, or achieved for that matter, anything akin to the scope, scale, and ambition of Denis Villeneuve’s two-part adaptation of Frank Herbert’s enigmatic science fiction classic. With ten nominations and six wins in its first edition (barring a shocking snub for Best Director), the second half of this story is poised for a November 3 release and another run at spicing up the awards season. What’s holding it back from first-tier contention is the Academy’s general response to genre films of this nature which are typically regarded for their craft and technical attributes more often than their above-the-line prowess. Nonetheless, with an A-list returning cast and Florence Pugh, Christopher Walken, Léa Seydoux, and Austin Butler joining their ranks, immediate comparisons will be drawn to The Lord of the Rings franchise and whether sophomore fatigue will mirror Peter Jackson’s trilogy and if a potential Dune: Messiah third entry will impact its ultimate success.
Saltburn
There is still little known regarding the plot and imagery of Emerald Fennell’s follow-up to Promising Young Woman, which nabbed five nominations and a win for Best Original Screenplay for the freshman filmmaker. Even without major story details, Barry Keoghan, Carey Mulligan, Rosamund Pike, Richard E. Grant, and Jacob Elordi in front of a camera directed by Linus Sandgren is evidence enough that Saltburn might have what it takes to make a serious run.
Others Next in Line include The Killer, Challengers, and May December.
The Dark Horses
The Zone of Interest
Although it did not take home the top prize at the Cannes Film Festival, settling for the Grand Prix (second place) in favor of its similarly ranked dark horse candidate, Anatomy of a Fall. While both films coincidentally enough star Sandra Hüller, an excellent option for Academy voters to recognize for Best Actress aside, the reception for Jonathan Glazer’s existential nightmare set adjacent to a Nazi concentration camp is what I’m extrapolating as a priority for The Dark Horse category. Glazer is an auteur who is selective, calculated, and meticulous regarding his work, this being only his fourth feature going back to 2000 and most recent since 2013. He has yet to garner Oscar attention, but with A24 he could see the Dolby Theatre turn into a zone of interest for his provocative project.
Blitz
Even in what has been dubbed “a new era” of the Academy, one thing still rings true: they still exhibit an endless appeal to their favorite war movie of the year; see All Quiet on the Western Front for details. Taking place during the bombing of London during World War II and from the Best Picture-winning director Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave), Blitz is another Apple project to keep an eye on featuring Saoirse Ronan and Harris Dickinson at the helm. Will it be Apple’s priority with Martin Scorsese in their 2023 portfolio? No. Will they have the money and resources to effectively campaign both should they choose to do so? C’mon it’s Apple, of course.
How Do You Live? (The Boy and the Heron)
With the decision from Studio Ghibli to release what is potentially the last film for illustrious Japanese animator Hayao Miyazaki without any promotion or marketing material by the studio he co-founded, little is known about the film outside of spare images and reactions from its Japanese release. Nevertheless, the Oscar-winning legend should not be overlooked for a swan song in the US-titled The Boy and the Heron that is sure to pull on the existential heartstrings of an audience keen to witness the handcrafted imagery of one of cinema’s most prolific storytellers.
Foe
As a potential competitor to a previously listed Dark Horse in terms of its lead Saoirse Ronan appearing in both, Garth Davis’s Foe could mark his return to the Oscar stage for the first time since Lion in 2016, which garnered six nominations. Billed as a sci-fi thriller, an Oscar miss is not unlikely, but betting on the pairing of Ronan with recently nominated Paul Mescal, who has seen his career triumphantly rise in recognition over the last year, is a low-stakes bet I’m willing to throw a dollar on.
Other Dark Horses include The Bikeriders, Lee, and Priscilla.
The Let-Downs
Wonka
With Barbie, Dune: Part Two, and The Color Purple already on the hands of the Warner Bros. awards and publicity team hands, Paul King’s Wonka following Timotheé Chalamet through the origin story of the deranged chocolatier would be the likely candidate to get left off the ballot early in the race. In the first recent trailer, I couldn’t help but feel a sense of unease surrounding its tone and approach, which is not an encouraging sign. It’s certainly too early to press the panic button, but studios are forced to prioritize come campaign season, and unless Paul King and company can shock the masses, Hugh Grant’s Oompa-Loompa may not be singing and dancing for too much longer.
Maestro
The complex study of Leonard Bernstein written, directed, and starring Bradley Cooper? In the let-downs? I recognize this film has the potential and the pedigree to be as high as a major contender, but I have to take an unexpected stab somewhere, and unfortunately, the voice of Rocket Raccoon is taking that knife. Call it a TÁR-induced composer story hangover or a concern for the reception of its biography material, but Maestro is my current top choice to miss out on what many consider a frontrunner for a Best Picture slot. Musical biopics can only go so far, and the train may stop here.
Next Goal Wins
Taika Waititi has had his hand in several projects ranging from TV to voice work to executive production over the last few years since his most recent Academy nomination in 2020 for Jojo Rabbit, but in that time, his public perception has only waned large in part due to what many considered (at best) a letdown in Thor: Love and Thunder. He’s set to return to the silver screen with Next Goal Wins, a story following an infamously terrible American Samoa soccer team that features the acting return of Michael Fassbender. While a Waititi venture that pulls more directly on his comedy roots is an exciting prospect, it’s worth questioning whether the tongue-in-cheek quality of the trailer will align with Academy tastes.
Ferrari
Although he’s been nominated for four Oscars, Michael Mann’s most significant awards dent goes all the way back to 2000. Without a major studio behind this biographical retelling of Italian sports car entrepreneur Enzo Ferrari, it’s difficult to see a realistic path forward to the Best Picture conversation despite whatever Italian accents Adam Driver, Shailene Woodley, Penélope Cruz, and company employ. STX Entertainment at the distribution helm does not help Ferrari’s case either.
Other Let-Downs include Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Asteroid City, and Air.
Article courtesy of Danny Jarabek
Feature Image from Barbie (2023) via Warner Bros
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