TRT Makes their Final 2026 Oscar Winner Predictions

The 98th Academy Awards ceremony is on the horizon, and the headwinds have led up to a showdown between One Battle After Another and Sinners. 

One Battle After Another has won the Golden Globe for Best Musical/Comedy, the Critics’ Choice and BAFTA for Best Film, and the PGA Award for Best Theatrical Motion Picture. That’s on top of director Paul Thomas Anderson sweeping all the major precursors for Best Director prizes, in addition to writing prizes at BAFTA and WGA. The film boasts a plethora of awards, including wins for cinematography at BAFTA and ASC, editing at BAFTA and ACE Eddie (in Comedy), and acting for Sean Penn and Teyana Taylor. 

Yet, after making history with a record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations, Ryan Coogler’s Sinners has remained the underdog in the Best Picture race, nabbing key wins at SAG Ensemble, ACE Eddie for Drama, and the WGA for Original Screenplay. It’s a unique pathway that’s led previous underdog contenders — such as Parasite (2019) and Crash (2004) — to Best Picture glory. There’s no denying that both films will receive numerous Oscars as two of the most celebrated films of 2025. 

Aside from Best Actress (congratulations to Jessie Buckley for sweeping awards season with Hamnet), three of the acting categories lack a consensus favorite. Timothée Chalamet started strong, winning Best Actor at the Globes and Critics’ Choice, yet has lost momentum after losing to Robert Aramayo at BAFTA and to Michael B. Jordan at SAG, two organizations whose voters overlap most with the Academy. While Wagner Moura missed nominations at BAFTA and SAG, he does hold a Globe win for Best Actor in a Drama Film. 

In Supporting Actor, Jacob Elordi won Critics’ Choice, Stellan Skarsgård won the Globe, while Sean Penn has led with BAFTA and SAG wins. In the last 10 years, seven Supporting Actor Oscar winners have won both SAG and BAFTA awards. A third Oscar for Penn wouldn’t be out of the ordinary; in the last 15 years, the Academy has awarded Frances McDormand, Meryl Streep, and Daniel Day-Lewis their third Oscars. 

Supporting Actress, too, is a toss-up. Teyana Taylor won the Globe, Wunmi Mosaku won the BAFTA, yet Amy Madigan in Weapons began the season with a Critics’ Choice win and ended with a SAG win, right as Oscar voting was underway. Since 2016, SAG has correctly predicted this category nine times. BAFTA, meanwhile, has been correct seven times, but those seven winners also won at SAG. Should Teyana Taylor prevail, it would be because her film is an overwhelming favorite to win Best Picture. 

Madigan winning despite Weapons receiving no other nominations would be a surprise. In this century, Penélope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona (2008) remains the only winner as their respective film’s sole nomination. Madigan fits the bill as an older industry veteran whose career and profile are beloved in Hollywood, and she has an iconic enough performance to merit a win. For Mosaku, the last time a lone BAFTA win translated to an Oscar win is Tilda Swinton in Michael Clayton (2007). 

It’s been a while since multiple acting categories have felt so up in the air. It’s the most exciting Oscars ceremony in recent memory. Together with my colleagues at The Rolling Tape, Adam Patla, Danny Jarabek, Tate Fowler, Owen Wilczek, Mari Fabian, Joshua Mbonu, Jacob Diedenhofer, and I will give our winner predictions for each category, listed in parentheses. 

Best Picture:

1. Bugonia  
2. F1  
3. Frankenstein  
4. Hamnet  
5. Marty Supreme  
6. One Battle After Another (Adam, Danny, Joshua, Owen, Paul, Tate, Jacob)
7. The Secret Agent  
8. Sentimental Value  
9. Sinners (Mari) 
10. Train Dreams

Best Director: 

1. Chloé Zhao – Hament 
2. Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme 
3. Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another (Adam, Danny, Joshua, Owen, Paul, Tate, Jacob)
4. Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value 
5. Ryan Coogler – Sinners (Mari)

Best Actor in a Leading Role:

1. Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
2. Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
3. Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
4. Michael B. Jordan – Sinners (All)
5. Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent 

Best Actress in a Leading Role:

1. Jessie Buckley – Hamnet (All)
2. Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
3. Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue 
4. Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
5. Emma Stone – Bugonia

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:

1. Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another 
2. Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein 
3. Delroy Lindo – Sinners (Joshua, Mari)
4. Sean Penn – One Battle After Another (Adam, Danny, Owen, Paul, Tate, Jacob)
5. Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value 

Best Actress in a Supporting Role:

1. Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value 
2. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value 
3. Amy Madigan – Weapons (Danny, Joshua, Owen, Paul, Jacob)
4. Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners (Adam, Mari, Tate)
5. Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another 

Best Original Screenplay:

1. Blue Moon – Robert Kaplow 
2. It Was Just an Accident – Jafar Panahi; in collaboration with Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, and Mehdi Mahmoudian 
3. Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie 
4. Sentimental Value – Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier 
5. Sinners – Ryan Coogler (All)

Best Adapted Screenplay:

1. Bugonia – Will Tracy
2. Frankenstein – Guillermo del Toro 
3. Hamnet – Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell
4. One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson (All)
5. Train Dreams – Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar 

Best Casting:

1. Hamnet – Nina Gold
2. Marty Supreme – Jennifer Venditti
3. One Battle After Another – Cassandra Kulukundis
4. The Secret Agent – Gabriel Domingues
5. Sinners – Francine Maisler (All)

Best Film Editing:

1. F1 – Stephen Mirrione (Adam)
2. Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie (Mari)
3. One Battle After Another – Andy Jurgensen (Danny, Joshua, Owen, Paul, Tate, Jacob)
4. Sentimental Value – Olivier Bugge Coutté 
5. Sinners – Michael P. Shawver  

Best Cinematography:

1. Frankenstein – Dan Laustsen
2. Marty Supreme – Darius Khondji
3. One Battle After Another – Michael Bauman (Adam, Danny, Joshua, Owen, Paul, Tate, Jacob)
4. Sinners – Autumn Durald Arkapaw (Mari)
5. Train Dreams – Adolpho Veloso 

Best Costume Design:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash – Deborah L. Scott
2. Frankenstein – Kate Hawley (Adam, Danny, Joshua, Owen, Paul, Tate, Jacob)
3. Hamnet – Malgosia Turzanska
4. Marty Supreme – Miyako Bellizzi
5. Sinners – Ruth E. Carter (Mari)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling:

1. Frankenstein – Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, and Cliona Furey (All)
2. Kokuho – Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino, and Tadashi Nishimatsu
3. Sinners – Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine, and Shunika Terry
4. The Smashing Machine – Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin, and Bjoern Rehbein
5. The Ugly Stepsister – Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg 

Best Production Design:

1. Frankenstein – Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau (Adam, Danny, Joshua, Owen, Paul, Tate, Jacob)
2. Hamnet – Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton
3. Marty Supreme – Jack Fisk and Adam Willis
4. One Battle After Another – Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino
5. Sinners – Hannah Beachler and Monique Champagne (Mari)

Best Sound:

1. F1 – Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yate Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo, and Juan Peralta (Adam, Danny, Joshua, Owen, Paul, Tate, Jacob)
2. Frankenstein – Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke, and Brad Zoern 
3. One Battle After Another – José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio, and Tony Villaflor 
4. Sinners – Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor, and Steve Boeddeker (Mari) 
5. Sirāt – Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas, and Yasmina Praderas

Best Original Score:

1. Bugonia – Jerskin Fendrix
2. Frankenstein – Alexandre Desplat
3. Hamnet – Max Richter
4. One Battle After Another – Jonny Greenwood
5. Sinners – Ludwig Göransson (All)

Best Original Song:

1. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless  
2. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (Adam, Danny, Joshua, Owen, Paul, Tate, Jacob) 
3. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (Mari)
4. “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi!  
5. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams  

Best Visual Effects: 

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett (Adam, Danny, Joshua, Owen, Paul, Tate, Jacob)
2. F1 – Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington, and Keith Dawson
3. Jurassic World: Rebirth – David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan, and Neil Corbould
4. The Lost Bus – Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen, and Brandon K. McLaughlin
5. Sinners – Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter, and Donnie Dean (Mari)

Best Animated Feature: 

1. Arco – Ugo Bienvenu, Félix de Givry, Sophie Mas, and Natalie Portman (Mari)
2. Elio – Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina, and Mary Alice Drumm
3. KPop Demon Hunters – Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans, and Michelle L.M. Wong (Adam, Danny, Joshua, Owen, Paul, Tate, Jacob)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain – Maïlys Vallade, Liane-Cho Han, Nidia Santiago, and Henri Magalon
5. Zootopia 2 – Jared Bush, Byron Howard, and Yvett Merino

Best Documentary Feature:

1. The Alabama Solution – Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman
2. Come See Me in the Good Light – Ryan White, Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro, and Stef Willen (Mari)
3. Cutting Through Rocks – Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni
4. Mr Nobody Against Putin – David Borenstein, Pavel Talankin, Helle Faber, and Alžběta Karásková (Danny, Tate)
5. The Perfect Neighbor – Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu, and Sam Bisbee (Adam, Joshua, Owen, Paul, Jacob)

Best International Feature:

1. It Was Just an Accident – France 
2. The Secret Agent – Brazil (Adam, Joshua, Jacob)
3. Sentimental Value – Norway (Danny, Mari, Owen, Paul, Tate)
4. Sirāt – Spain 
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab – Tunisia

Best Animated Short Film:

1. Butterfly – Florence Miailhe and Ron Dyens (Adam, Joshua, Mari, Tate)
2. Forevergreen – Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears (Paul)
3. The Girl Who Cried Pearls – Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski (Jacob)
4. Retirement Plan – John Kelly and Andrew Freedman  (Danny, Owen)
5. The Three Sisters – Konstantin Bronzit 

Best Documentary Short Film:

1. All the Empty Rooms – Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones (All)
2. Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud – Craig Renaud and Juan Arredondo 
3. Children No More: “Were and Are Gone” – Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins 
4. The Devil Is Busy – Christalyn Hampton and Geeta Gandbhir 
5. Perfectly a Strangeness – Alison McAlpine 

Best Live-Action Short Film:

1. Butcher’s Stain – Meyer Levinson-Blount and Oron Caspi 
2. A Friend of Dorothy – Lee Knight and James Dean (Paul, Jacob)
3. Jane Austen’s Period Drama – Julia Aks and Steve Pinder 
4. The Singers – Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt (Mari)
5. Two People Exchanging Saliva – Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata (Adam, Danny, Joshua, Owen, Tate)

Article Courtesy of Amritpal Rai

Feature Image Credit to Focus Features | Still from ‘Hament’ (2025)