We’ve been following Awards Season closely, with halfway predictions and Oscar analyses. Now, ahead of Academy Award nomination announcements on January 22, The Rolling Tape Awards Team makes final nomination predictions on each category.

Each category will list nominees from top to bottom (most likely to least likely). This includes picks from members of our TRT Awards Team: Danny Jarabek, Tate Fowler, Joshua Mbonu, Owen Wilzcek, Evan Miller, Adam Patla, and me. Our picks will be shown in parentheses. 

Best Picture:

  1. One Battle After Another  (All)
  2. Sinners (All)
  3. Hamnet (All)
  4. Sentimental Value (All)
  5. Frankenstein (All)
  6. Marty Supreme (All)
  7. Bugonia (All)
  8. The Secret Agent (All)
  9. Train Dreams (All)
  10. It Was Just an Accident (Adam, Danny, Evan, Joshua, Owen, Tate)
  11. F1: The Movie (Paul)

No matter what happens, films one through seven feel the closest to what can be locks for Best Picture nominations. All seven received nominations from Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes for Best Film; five received Best SAG Ensemble nominations; seven made the PGA and BAFTA Longlist for Best Film.

The Secret Agent has won Best International prizes from the trifecta of critics groups (NYFCC, LAFCA, NSFC), Critics’ Choice, and the Globes. With Wagner Moura winning the Globe for Best Drama Actor, The Secret Agent has solidified itself as the frontrunner for International Feature. It seems on point to follow the trajectory of 2024’s I’m Still Here, as actors are the biggest voting body in the Academy, which will push the film into the Best Picture lineup. This is also aided by the growing international bloc of the Academy, which is proving itself to garner its taste from international film festivals like Cannes and Venice. 

Since its Sundance acquisition, Netflix positioned Train Dreams as its indie critical darling, which can appeal to Oscar voters. Its path has included nominations and wins for Actor, Screenplay, Cinematography, and Song. This wide breadth of support signals a film appealing across branches. Making the PGA lineup ensured a position at nine. It will mark the first time in four years that Netflix has had two films nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture. 

The last slot can go in a variety of ways. Neon began the season on a high with It Was Just an Accident, as it won the Palme d’Or. Since 2019’s Parasite, four Palme d’Or winners have garnered Best Picture nominations, all distributed by Neon. Yet missing Best Film mentions from the Critics’ Choice and BAFTA Longlist, and not winning anything at the Globes, shows that early passion has dwindled. Perhaps three non-English language films in Best Picture was too much of an ask. Yet, it’s hard not to consider the Palme winner not making the Best Picture lineup.

F1: The Movie has high critics and audience scores for a mainstream blockbuster, a global hit, and has shown impressive Guild strength. A lone PGA nomination doesn’t instill a lot of strength, yet its strength from technical nominations and having the biggest visibility as a populist film could manage to wiggle its way into the lineup. Weapons is also possible, due to the strength of Amy Madigan’s performance and the screenplay. 

Precursors: Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild (SAG), Producers Guild (PGA); BAFTA Longlists, NYFCC, LAFCA, NSFC

Best Director:

  1. Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another (All)
  2. Ryan Coogler – Sinners (All)
  3. Chloé Zhao – Hamnet (All)
  4. Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value (Adam, Danny, Owen, Tate
  5. Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme (Evan, Joshua, Paul)
  6. Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein (Evan, Adam, Danny, 
  7. Jafar Panahi – It Was Just an Accident (Owen, Tate)

Despite Anderson, Coogler, and Zhao being nominated at Critics’ Choice, Globe, DGA, and being mentioned on the BAFTA Longlist, there is a trend of a director who gets into every precursor and misses the Oscar nomination. Edward Berger missed for Conclave (2024); Greta Gerwig missed for Barbie (2023), and Denis Villeneuve missed for Dune (2021). Yet, Anderson, Coogler, and Zhao are behind the top three films contending for Best Picture. To predict a miss would be anticipating an omission that hasn’t happened on paper. It makes sense to expect all three. 

Joachim Trier will receive support from the European contingent of the Directors Branch. His win at the EFA points to a trend of European directors who miss most precursors, yet win at EFA, gain some support from BAFTA, and get into the Oscars. Jacques Audiard, Justine Triet, Ruben Östlund, Thomas Vinterberg, and Pawel Pawlikowski won the EFA for Best Director and Best European Film, and they show up in Best Director. Since 2018, a director from the Cannes Festival competition lineup has been eligible for the Best Director category. Trier fits this mold with Sentimental Value starting its award buzz from Cannes. 

Josh Safdie missed the Globe for Marty Supreme, while Guillermo del Toro missed the BAFTA Longlist for Frankenstein. Either one could make the last slot, based on the strength and reception of their respective films. Marty Supreme has gained momentum since its release in December, the same window as A Complete Unknown last year. It propelled James Mangold to a Best Director nomination, with just a DGA nomination. But Safldie lacks the career arc Mangold had with thirty years under his belt.

Del Toro may miss by Frankenstein being stigmatized as a type of IP. brand that sank the nomination chances of Gerwig and Villeneuve, as the branch could look down on projects that code more populist and previously established. Yet, the authorial narrative of this being a passion project for del Toro could override any cynicism people can have toward the film, as it’s a signature del Toro film. 

Other international directors, such as Jafar Panahi for It Was Just an Accident and Kleber Mendonça Filho for The Secret Agent, could crash, as the international presence of the branch can overcome the lack of precursor mentions for both men. Their films still have strong recognition internationally, and as long-established directors. 

Precursors: Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, Directors Guild (DGA), BAFTA, European Film Awards (EFA)

Focus Features

Best Actress:

  1. Jessie Buckley – Hamnet (All)
  2. Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (All)
  3. Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value (All)
  4. Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another (All)
  5. Emma Stone – Bugonia (Adam, Danny, Joshua, Paul, Owen, Tate)
  6. Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue (Evan)

All women (except Hudson) have received nominations from Critics’ Choice, Globe, SAG, and were mentioned on the BAFTA Longlist. It’s rare for Best Actress to feel this safe at this point in the season, when it can be the most difficult to pinpoint. The one spoiler contender could be Kate Hudson from Song Sung Blue, who only missed Critics’ Choice. It’s an emotionally hard-hitting performance from an actress who’s had a lasting career in the industry and is a previous nominee for Almost Famous (2000). Hudson could usurp Infiniti, as Infiniti lacks the name recognition and legacy that Hudson has. 

Amanda Seyfried has a chance for The Testament of Ann Lee, despite the film’s lackluster presence among precursors, outside of Seyfried’s nominations at Critics’ Choice and Globe. There are instances of actresses getting a sole Oscar nomination with just those two prior nominations. (Ruth Negga’s nomination for 2016’s Loving or Kristen Stewart’s nomination for 2021’s Spencer) They’re instances of pure passion superseding the lack of presence at SAG and BAFTA. 

Precursors: Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild (SAG), BAFTA

Best Actor:

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another (All)
  2. Timothée Chalamet –  Marty Supreme (All)
  3. Michael B. Jordan – Sinners (All)
  4. Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent (All)
  5. Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon (All)

DiCaprio, Chalamet, and Jordan have shown up at Critics’ Choice, Globe, SAG, and BAFTA. Their respective films are also looking at Best Picture nominations. Moura missing SAG and BAFTA isn’t a huge blow, as those voting bodies are less susceptible to nominating non-English performances. Those hurdles didn’t stop Fernanda Torres from receiving an Oscar nomination last year, another performance in a Brazilian international contender. 

Ethan Hawke seems safe for his performance in Blue Moon, yet the problem is that he would be the only nominee for his film. Outside of being mentioned on the BAFTA Longlist for Screenplay and Andrew Scott in Supporting Actor, the film hasn’t appeared in any major precursors. A fun stat that could benefit Hawke is that the last time the Best Actor lineup was filled with Best Picture contenders was the 2014 Oscars. Since then, there’s been at least one actor nominated for a film not nominated for Best Picture. His performance is the kind that can garner first-place votes on a ballot.

A possibility can happen for Joel Edgerton in Train Dreams. Edgerton’s performance is the centerpiece of the film, and he’s been nominated for Critics’ Choice and Globe. The difficulty is that his performance is quieter and internal, as it’s not the style of acting the Academy typically acknowledges. Jesse Plemons can surprise, depending on how strong Bugonia performs, as Plemons has Globe and SAG nominations and was longlisted at BAFTA. 

Precursors: Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild (SAG), BAFTA

Best Supporting Actress:

  1. Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another (All)
  2. Amy Madigan – Weapons (All)
  3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value (All)
  4. Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners (All)
  5. Odessa A’zion – Marty Supreme (Adam, Danny, Evan, Joshua, Owen, Paul)
  6. Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good (Tate)

Taylor winning the Globe and Madigan winning Critics’ Choice, along with getting in at SAG and BAFTA Longlist, they’re your top two contenders. Lilleaas only missed SAG, but has the critical support and the strength of the film to get into the Oscars. Mosaku has won her fair share of wins, and her nominations at Critics’ Choice and SAG show the groups that love Sinners are recognizing her performance as part of the film’s nomination package. 

In a fun twist, A’zion seems to be repeating the playbook Monica Barbaro did for A Complete Unknown, where both missed Critics’ Choice and Globe, yet made SAG. The difference is that A’zion got into BAFTA, whereas Barbaro missed. This puts A’zion ahead, as Marty Supreme is gaining more nominations by the day, yet don’t discount her co-star, Gwyneth Paltrow. A previous winner, this could be a case where Paltrow has long-standing goodwill with the industry, which could supplant the newcomer. (Think Judi Dench leapfrogging Caitríona Balfe for a nomination in 2021’s Belfast.)

It’s not looking good for Ariana Grande forWicked: For Good. Despite her nomination for Wicked (2024) and making every precursor, the film overall has weakened as a viable awards contender. It’s under-performed with nominations at Critics’ Choice, Globes, SAG, and BAFTA Longlist. In this case, you have to pivot to the contender part of a stronger Best Picture film. 

Precursors: Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild (SAG), BAFTA

Best Supporting Actor:

  1. Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another (All)
  2. Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value (All)
  3. Sean Penn – One Battle After Another (All)
  4. Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein (All)
  5. Paul Mescal – Hament (All)

The safe action to take is to predict these five actors. While Skarsgård missed SAG, it has to be reiterated that they are not welcoming of non-English language performances. Especially after winning the Globe award, not predicting Skarsgård for a film likely getting multiple nominations in Picture, Director, and Acting would be unwise. Miles Caton snagged a SAG nomination for Sinners, while Delroy Lindo was mentioned on the BAFTA Longlist. Should Sinners prove to demonstrate exceptional passion with the Academy, don’t be surprised if either actor comes along for the ride. 

Precursors: Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild (SAG), BAFTA Longlists

Best Original Screenplay:

  1. Ryan Coogler – Sinners (All)
  2. Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt – Sentimental Value (All)
  3. Josh Safdie and Ronald Bronstein – Marty Supreme (All)
  4. Jafar Panahi – It Was Just an Accident (All)
  5. Eva Victor – Sorry, Baby (Adam, Evan, Joshua, Tate)
  6. Zach Creggor – Weapons (Danny, Owen, Paul)

Without the aid of WGA and BAFTA nominations, there are only so few precursors to go off from. Sinners, Sentimental Value (which also won Best Screenwriter at EFA, a strong indicator of international screenplays getting Oscar-nominated), and Marty Supreme have Critics’ Choice and Globes nominations, as well as BAFTA Longlists. A secure top three. 

It Was Just an Accident missed out on Critics’ Choice, yet it has a Globe nomination and appeared on the BAFTA Longlist (despite the film being absent from Best Film and Director). Plus, it’s won significant critics’ group screenplay prizes from LAFCA and NSFC, which is too difficult to ignore outright. 

Sorry, Baby was championed by early critics’ groups, yet the love hasn’t felt concrete with the industry, outside of a Critics’ Choice nomination for Screenplay and a Globe nomination for Eva Victor in Drama Actress. Maybe Julia Roberts shouting out Victor in a rousing Globes speech may give voters an incentive to give the film a watch as voting opened. 

Weapons making it into PGA may lend support for its original, high-concept film that was a box office success. It falls in line with prior PGA nominees, aiding their screenplay nominations — September 5 (2024), Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (2020), Knives Out (2019), Bridesmaids (2011), as notable examples. 

Precursors: Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, BAFTA, Producers Guild (PGA).  European Film Awards (EFA), LAFCA, NSFC

Best Adapted Screenplay:

  1. Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another (All)
  2. Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell – Hamnet (All) 
  3. Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar – Train Dreams (All)
  4. Will Tracy – Bugonia (All)
  5. Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein (Adam, Danny, Joshua, Owen, Paul)
  6. Rian Johnson – Wake Up Dead Man (Tate)

This feels like a consensus five between Critics’ Choice, Globes, USC Scripters, and the BAFTA Longlists. One Battle After Another and Hamnet have all four precursor mentions. Frankenstein and Train Dreams have all but Globes (as the Globes have a combined category). Bugonia rounds the fifth spot, as the film has gained momentum for Best Picture — between its PGA nomination, overwhelming BAFTA Longlist mentions, and nominations at Critics Choice. 

There was hope that No Other Choice would break into this category after a Critics’ Choice nomination, yet it has not materialized. This may be due to his public expulsion from the WGA due to violating rules during the 2023 Writers’ Strike. It’s hard to say if that’s spilled into the Writer’s branch of the Academy, but the film’s presence beyond International Feature has diminished. 

Precursors: Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, USC Scripter, BAFTA, Producers Guild (PGA)

Best Casting:

  1. Francine Maisler – Sinners (All)
  2. Cassandra Kulukundis – One Battle After Another (All)
  3. Jennifer Venditti – Marty Supreme (All)
  4. Nina Gold – Hamnet (Danny, Joshua, Owen)
  5. Gabriel Domingues – The Secret Agent (Danny, Paul)
  6. Allison Jones – Weapons (Paul, Tate)
  7. Robin D. Cook – Frankenstein (Adam)
  8. Yngvill Kolset Haga and Avy Kaufman – Sentimental Value (Joshua)
  9. Nadia Acimi, María Rodrigo, and Luís Bértolo – Sirât (Tate)

We have a new category at the Oscars since the Best Animated Feature category was introduced 20 years ago. While the Oscars shortlist has ten films eligible for Best Casting, it’s hard to predict how the Casting Branch will vote. Is it how big the cast is or how many famous actors are involved? Will legendary Casting Directors — Nina Gold (Hamnet) or Francine Maisler (Sinners) — have sway with the branch due to their extensive careers? Will the casting of non-actors give a boost to Sirât as a demonstration of great, unconventional casting? How powerful is the narrative of Jacob Elordi being a last-minute replacement for Frankenstein resonate as an accomplishment of casting?

The safe bet would be to include films high in the Best Picture race, such as Sinners and One Battle After Another. Of the three international films shortlisted, I went with The Secret Agent due to the sprawling and expansive ensemble. Marty Supreme features over 100 non-actors in speaking roles, highlighting the exemplary casting that goes into a Safdie film, showcasing non-professionals working harmoniously with established actors.

I’m taking a swing for Weapons as my fifth pick. The film had a different cast before the 2023 SAG strikes disrupted it, causing actors to drop out and Jones to recast. It’s an ensemble film reliant on six significant character perspectives (including a child), and casting is essential to its success. Allison Jones is an established figure, casting TV classics like The Office and Arrested Development and films like Barbie. The fact that a horror studio film like Weapons made it to the final ten indicates a level of appreciation for its casting.

Best Film Editing:

  1. Andy Jurgensen – One Battle After Another (All)
  2. Michael P. Shawver – Sinners (All)
  3. Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme (All)
  4. Stephen Mirrione – F1: The Movie (All)
  5. Affonso Gonçalves and Chloé Zhao – Hamnet (Adam, Danny, Evan, Owen, Tate)
  6. Evan Schiff – Frankenstein (Joshua)
  7. Yorgos Mavropsaridis – Bugonia (Paul)

Without the help of ACE Eddie and BAFTA nominations, we have limited evidence. Sinners, One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme, and F1 received nominations from Critics’ Choice, with F1 winning. (All films and Hamnet are on the BAFTA Longlist.) Film Editing is attributed to being representative of what the top five contenders for Best Picture are. It’s rare for a Best Picture winner not have an Editing nomination; only two films in the 21st century have won Best Picture without an Editing nomination. (2021’s Coda and 2014’s Birdman being the exceptions.) 

F1 is peculiar in that it’s not a top contender for Picture, yet has the technical craftsmanship that can make for an Editing play. Since 2010, five films received an Editing nomination without correlating to Best Picture. F1 is in the lineage of Baby Driver (2017) and Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens (2015) ― films which garner strong nominations between Sound and Visual Effects without a presence in above-the-line categories (Director, Picture, etc.). 

Frankenstein is tricky, as its editing has been an aspect critics have signaled out as weak in terms of pacing. Despite 11 Critics’ Choice nominations, Editing wasn’t one of them. It does have a mention on the BAFTA Longlist, so the passion for the film could override any criticism. 

Bugonia is a wild card. The editor, Yorgos Mavropsaridis, is a two-time nominee and may ride the wave of support for the film. It’s an intense chamber piece fueled by paranoia and smash cuts to unexpected chaos. 

Sentimental Value missed being longlisted at BAFTA, and the Oscar branch may not be keen to recognize the editing of an intimate drama revolving around messy familial relationships, as it may be on par with Marriage Story (2019) and Manchester by the Sea (2016), in which their editing efforts fail to be recognized. 

Precursors: Critics’ Choice (CCA), BAFTA

Warner Bros

Best Cinematography:

  1. Autumn Durald Arkapaw – Sinners (All)
  2. Michael Baumen – One Battle After Another (All)
  3. Adolpho Veloso – Train Dreams (All)
  4. Darius Khondji – Marty Supreme (All)
  5. Dan Laustsen – Frankenstein (Adam, Danny, Joshua, Owen, Paul)
  6. Łukasz Żal – Hament (Evan)
  7. Claudio Mirando – F1: The Movie (Tate)

Atumn Arkapaw has won the most from critics groups for Sinners, and the work she’s done is the most cinematic of the year. Arkapaw would become the fourth female cinematographer nominated in Academy history, and the first woman of color. Sinners, One Battle After Another, Frankenstein, and Train Dreams have shown up at Critics’ Choice (with Dreams winning), ASC, and BAFTA Longlist. All but Train Dreams made it onto BSC’s lineup. 

Dan Lausten has been previously nominated for Nightmare Alley (2021) and The Shape of Water (2017), and Frankenstein’s inclusion in Critics’ Choice, ASC, and BAFTA Longlist should help. 

While Łukasz Żal is a previous two-time nominee, missing both ASC and BSC (two organizations in which he’s been nominated and won prior) is a red flag. He has a Critics’ Choice nomination and BAFTA Longlist mention, yet, for this field being this competitive, it would’ve helped had Żal made either ASC or BSC. 

Khondji missed Critics’ Choice, yet the two-time Oscar nominee never received a nomination from the group; Khondji is greatly respected. With Marty Supreme being a period film, his aesthetic meshing with Josh Safdie’s direction makes for an alluring film. 

Precursors: Critics’ Choice (CCA), BAFTA, American Society of Cinematographers (ASC), British Society of Cinematographers (BSC)

Best Costume Design:

  1. Kate Hawley – Frankenstein (All)
  2. Ruth E. Carter – Sinners (All)
  3. Paul Tazewell –  Wicked: For Good (All)
  4. Malgosia Turzanska – Hament (All)
  5. Colleen Atwood – One Battle After Another (Danny, Joshua, Owen, Tate)
  6. Miyako Bellizzi – Marty Supreme (Evan)
  7. Lindsay Pugh – Hedda (Adam, Paul)

Frankenstein, Sinners, Wicked: For Good, and Hamnet have appeared at Critics’ Choice (Frankenstein won), CDG, and the BAFTA Longlist. Had Hedda not missed the BAFTA Longlist, I would feel confident that’s our lone Costume Design nomination that’s been a pattern in recent years, such as Gladiator II (2024), Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (2022), and Cyrano (2021). Yet missing out on a BAFTA doesn’t instill confidence in a film hoping for a lone nomination. 

Marty Supreme is a film that’s been rising in the awards race; while missing both Critics’ Choice and CDG, getting into the BAFTA Longlist lends credibility to a last-minute surge in its costumes. It’s a film populated with 5,000 costumes that fit the 1950s New York, Japan, and France fashion aesthetics, among hundreds of extras and background actors.

One Battle After Another has a secret weapon for this category: three-time winner, 12-time nominee Colleen Atwood. Nothing short of a legend within the branch. The film has CDG and was longlisted at BAFTA. The hurdle is that it’s very hard for contemporary designs to break into the category. However, Conclave (2024) nabbed a nomination last year, so this may be a case where the film is too beloved to be disregarded for its unique wardrobe. 

Precursors: Critics’ Choice (CCA), BAFTA, Costume Design Guild (CDG)

Best Production Design:

  1. Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau – Frankenstein (All)
  2. Hannah Beachler and Monique Champagne – Sinners (All)
  3. Jack Fisk and Adam Willis – Marty Supreme (All)
  4. Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton – Hamnet (All)
  5. Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales – Wicked: For Good (All)

Between nominations at Critics’ Choice, ADG, SDG, and appearing on the BAFTA Longlist, this may be the select five that feel safe for nominations. Frankenstein boasts a previous winner (Vieau won for The Shape of Water) and nominee (Deverell was nominated for Nightmare Alley), and won at Critics’ Choice. Hannah Beacher won for Coogler’s Black Panther, Jack Fisk is a legendary production designer as a three-time nominee, and Hamnet has received acclaim for its recreation of the Shakespeare Globe theater.

Even though Wicked: For Good has fallen off the prospects of repeating its 10-nomination haul from the first film, the production design still is awards-worthy, especially with six-time nominee Nathan Crowley at the helm, who won for the first film. Avatar(2009) won for Art Direction, and Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) was nominated. If there is a potential spoiler that could supplant Wicked, it could be Avatar: Fire and Ash. 

Precursors: Critics’ Choice (CCA), BAFTA, Art Directors Guild (ADG), Set Decorators Guild (SDG), Critics’ Choice

Best Hair & Makeup:

  1. Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, and Cliona Furey – Frankenstein (All)
  2. Siân Richards, Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine, and Shunika Terry –  Sinners (All)
  3. Frances Hannon, Mark Coulier, and Laura Blount – Wicked: For Good (All)
  4. Kazu Hiro, Felix Fox, and Mia Neal – The Smashing Machine (All)
  5. Kyra Panchenko, Stella Sensel, and Mike Fontaine – Marty Supreme (Adam, Danny, Tate) 
  6. Arjen Tuiten and Jessica Nelson – One Battle After Another (Evan, Joshua, Owen)
  7.  Miia Kovero and Kodo Nishimura – Kokuho (Paul)

Frankenstein, Sinners, Wicked: For Good made Critics’ Choice and BAFTA Longlist. When it comes to Makeup and Hair Guild award nominations (MUAHS), out of their five competitive categories, the most significant relation to Oscar is for Best Special Make-Up Effects, as it involves prosthetics and extensive transformative makeup. 

The aforementioned films were nominated, alongside Weapons (which wasn’t Oscar shortlisted) and One Battle After Another. One of its designers, Arjen Tuiten, was nominated for Wonder (2017) and Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (2019) for similar facial transformations, which are prominent at the end of One Battle. The film was also longlisted at BAFTA, so it may be a case where the Best Picture contender is too big to ignore for the branch.

Kazu Hiro is beloved within the makeup branch. Having won twice for Darkest Hour (2017) and Bombshell (2019), despite Smashing Machine missing MUAHS for Special Effects, his design of creating makeup that could endure sweat and the fighting scenes involving Dwayne Johnson could endear him to the branch who will be appreciative of the work. 

Marty Supreme received one nomination at MUAHS for Best Period Hair Styling and/or Character Hair Styling, along with a BAFTA Longlist. It could sneak its way into the Oscar five, as it has prominent period makeup for 1950s New York, especially subtly transforming Chalamet’s face, complemented by close-up shots by Darius Khondji, which could emphasize the work.

Precursors: Critics’ Choice (CCA), BAFTA, Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists (MUAHS)

Best Original Score:

  1. Johnny Greenwood – One Battle After Another (All)
  2. Ludwig Göransson – Sinners (All)
  3. Alexandre Desplat – Frankenstein (All)
  4. Max Richter – Hamnet (All)
  5. Hans Zimmer – F1: The Movie (Adam, Tate)
  6. Daniel Lopatin – Marty Supreme (Evan, Owen)
  7. Bryce Dessner – Train Dreams (Paul)
  8. Jerskin Fendrix – Bugonia (Danny)  

All of us collectively agree on our top four: One Battle After Another, Sinners, Frankenstein, and Hamnet, landing nominations at Critics’ Choice, Globe, BAFTA Longlist, SC&L, and HMMA, plus correlated with their strength at awards contenders. Hamnet could be weak due to the usage of Richter’s On The Nature of Daylight, yet the fact that it’s not been deemed illegible and made onto the shortlists should eliminate doubt for that being a hindrance at the stage of voting. 

Then we’re splintered for our last choice. F1 has the clout of Hans Zimmer being a celebrated composer, yet his score for F1 is not one of his best, as it missed the BAFTA Longlist and SL&C nomination for Original Score. Before his win for Dune: Part One (2021), Zimmer’s recent nominations have only correlated with Christopher Nolan films. The safe pick would be Loptain’s score, yet this branch has demonstrated a hesitance to electronic, synthesized scores, such as last year’s Challengers missing despite winning Globe and Critics’ Choice. Outside of missing Globe, Marty Supreme has made every precursor. 

I’m going out on a limb for Train Dreams, as its nomination for Independent Feature for SC&L has an understated pulse in showcasing films considered indie, yet their Best Picture momentum is growing to the point where they can show in Score. Similar SC&L nominees and winners for Independent feature include Minari (2020), Parallel Mothers (2021), Everything Everywhere All at Once (2022), and The Brutalist (2024). It’s a stretch, as Train Dreams hasn’t been a major presence in the season for scoring. 

Jerskin Fendrix’s score for Bugonia is striking, often utilizing the same anachronistic sounds he was nominated for Poor Things (2023), imbuing anxiety and dread amidst the chaos. It’s been nominated by HMMA, SC&L, and was longlisted at BAFTA. 

Precursors: Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, BAFTA, Society of Composers & Lyricists Awards (SC&L), Hollywood Music in Media Awards (HMMA)

Best Sound:

  1. Sinners (All)
  2. F1: The Movie (All)
  3. One Battle After Another (All)
  4. Frankenstein (Danny, Paul, Evan, Joshua, Owen)
  5. Sirât (Adam, Danny, Joshua, Owen, Paul, Tate)
  6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (Adam, Evan, Tate)

Among the ten shortlisted films, F1, Frankenstein, and Sinners have appeared at Critics’ Choice (which F1 won), AMPS, and BAFTA Longlist. While One Battle After Another missed AMPS, it has appeared at every precursor, plus its strength as a Best Picture contender featuring car chases and gun violence helps it stand out.

Sirât landed a surprise nomination at Critics’ Choice and a nomination in Sound Editing for International Feature at MPSE. Recent years have shown the branch is welcoming of international films, with All Quiet on the Western Front (2022), The Zone of Interest (2023), and Emilia Perez (2024) being nominated. (The caveat would be that they’re Best Picture contenders; Sirât is not.) The mixture of explosions and driving sequences in the desert with bursts of music and dancing montages could help it stand out.

Previous Avatar films have received Sound nominations, yet the red flag for Avatar: Fire and Ash was missing MPSE for Achievement in Sound Editing – Effects/Foley. For as action-heavy and much of a spectacle as Fire and Ash is, it lends credence to this third entry in the franchise being weak as an overall contender and unable to replicate prior nominations at this point.

Precursors: Critics’ Choice (CCA), BAFTA, Association of Motion Picture Sound (AMPS), Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE)

Netflix

Best Original Song:

  1. “Golden” – KPop Demon Hunters (All)
  2. “If I Lied To You” – Sinners (All)
  3. “Dear Me” – Diane Warren: Relentless (All)
  4. “Train Dreams” – Train Dreams (All)
  5. “The Girl in the Bubble” – Wicked: For Good (Adam, Danny, Evan, Joshua, Owen, Tate)
  6. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” – Come See Me In the Good Light (Paul)

Between Globes, Critics’ Choice, HMMA, SC&L, “Golden,” “If I Lied To You,” “The Girl in the Bubble,” and “Train Dreams” have shown up for nominations. “I Lied To You” has won Original Feature Song and Onscreen performance at HMMA; Golden has won Animated Song at HMMA, Globe, and Critics’ Choice. “Train Dreams” missed with the guilds, yet its presence at other precursors and as a Best Picture nominee helps the song. “Girl in the Bubble” may be aided by the love for Stephen Schwartz, despite the film’s presence as an awards contender decreasing.

After 16 nominations, it’s inevitable and undeniable to include a Diane Warren song. “Dear Me” will be no different. “Dear Me” would mark her ninth consecutive back-to-back Oscar nomination.

I am making a leap for “Salt Then Sour And Sweet.” Despite only having nominations for Documentary at HMMA and SC&L, the song boasts Sara Bareilles, Andrea Gibson, and Brandi Carlile. This category highlights songs from documentaries, and the film is shortlisted for Best Documentary.

Precursors: Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice (CCA), Society of Composers & Lyricists Awards (SC&L), Hollywood Music in Media Awards (HMMA)

Best Visual Effects:

  1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (All)
  2. F1: The Movie (All)
  3. Superman (All)
  4. Frankenstein (Evan, Joshua, Paul)
  5. The Lost Bus (Adam, Danny, Joshua, Paul, Owen)
  6. Sinners (Danny, Evan, Owen, Tate)    
  7. Jurassic World: Rebirth (Adam, Tate)

The past two Avatar films have won this category; Avatar: Fire and Ash won Critics’ Choice and has 10 nominations at VES. Lost Bus and Superman have four nominations, a piece, with F1 at one nomination. These three films feel like assured prospects for the branch, as they blend hyper-realistic effects with real-world environments. After that, it’s a crapshoot.

Even with Frankenstein missing at VES, having a Critics’ Choice nomination and being longlisted at BAFTA may help it overcome that hurdle. Sinners having one VES nomination for Supporting Effects and missing the BAFTA Longlist begs the question of how undeniable the effects in Sinners are, given how sparse they are. Outside of the unique manner in which the twin effects were accomplished, the film is far more in-camera effects than digital. And for as many nominations Sinners may have, this is an area it can afford to lose, as it’s a vulnerable category. 

The last Jurassic Park film to receive a nomination here was The Lost World: Jurassic Park (1997). The last three Jurassic World films showed up at VES, yet failed at the Oscars. It’s hard to predict Rebirth breaking that trend, unless you’re passionate that the direction by Gareth Edwards (a noted visual effects artist) can give it more legitimacy with the branch to appreciate his different approach to the film’s effects. 

Precursors: Critics’ Choice (CCA), Visual Effects Society (VES), BAFTA

Best International Feature:

  1. It Was Just an Accident – France (All)
  2. Sentimental Value – Norway (All)
  3. The Secret Agent – Brazil (All)
  4. Sirât – Spain (Adam, Danny, Evan, Joshua, Owen, Paul, Tate)
  5. Left-Handed Girl – Taiwan  (Danny)
  6. No Other Choice – South Korea (Adam, Evan, Joshua, Owen, 
  7. The Voice of Hind Rajab – Tunisia  (Paul, Tate)

It Was Just an Accident, Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent, and Sirât are contending for nominations outside of this category. Alongside No Other Choice, all films have nominations at Critics’ Choice and Globes and are shortlisted at BAFTA (which include Voice of Hind Rajab and Left-Handed Girl). Left-Handed Girl has Critics’ Choice while Hind Rajab has a Globe nomination.

Park Chan-wook hasn’t been nominated before, and Parasite (2019) is the only South Korean film that has been nominated (and won) in this category. No other Choice missing several BAFTA longlist mentions took the wind out of its awards momentum. Except for The Hand of God (2021), Netflix has trouble getting international films a sole nomination for International Feature that aren’t competing for other categories, including Best Picture.

Hind Rajab won the Grand Jury Prize at the Venice Film Festival, plus Kaouther Ben Hania is a previous nominee for The Man Who Sold His Skin (2020) and carries tremendous weight in her filmmaking by blending the real recordings of Hind Rajab’s emergency calls within the recreation of the Red Crescent workers trying to save her. It’s one of the few notable films touching the Gaza conflict in a humane, affecting manner.

Do not be shocked if The President’s Cake surprises for a nomination. The film has no precursor haul to support this possibility. This is solely based on Sony Pictures Classics (SPC)’s expectations for its campaigning efforts, overriding all conventional wisdom. With 16 wins and dozens of nominations, SPC has a connection to Oscar voters, with their films seen by them more than any other distributor for non-Best Picture contenders. That’s demonstrated by the number of nominations they’ve accrued in this category as effective strategists.

Precursors: Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice (CCA), BAFTA

Best Animated Feature:

  1. KPop Demon Hunters (All)
  2. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (All)
  3. Zootopia 2 (All)
  4. Arco (All)
  5. Elio (All)

Between the Globes, Critics’ Choice, Annies, and BAFTA, it’s hard to deviate for this five. It has felt like a sparse year for animated films, and Danny and I had difficulty ascertaining what could break into this expected lineup. KPop has won the Globe and Critics’ Choice; it is the overwhelming favorite to win.

Zootopia 2 is the highest-grossing animated Disney film of all time; sequels from Disney/Pixar have a success rate of getting nominated. Elio has the goodwill of being an original film from Pixar. Arco and Little Amélie have the support of international voters, alongside garnering nominations at those significant precursors.

Precursors: Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice (CCA), BAFTA, Annies

Best Documentary:

  1. The Perfect Neighbor (All)
  2. 2000 Meters to Andriivka  (Adam, Danny, Evan, Joshua, Owen, Tate)
  3. My Undesirable Friends: Part I — Last Air in Moscow (Adam, Danny, Joshua, Owen, Paul)
  4. Cover-Up (Adam, Joshua, Evan, Owen, Tate)
  5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (Danny, Evan, Owen, Paul, Tate)
  6. The Alabama Solution (Adam, Evan, Joshua, Tate)
  7. Seeds (Paul, Danny)
  8. Cutting Through Rocks (Paul)

Best Documentary is the most difficult category to predict. Your predictions will be an amalgamation of what the precursors indicate and what the Branch is thinking. It’s noteworthy to know that the last two years have been occupied by international documentaries. No domestic docs or anything from Netflix (which used to dominate this category). It’s been more inclusive of International films. From the IDA awards, Apocalypse in the Tropics and Seeds were nominated for Best Feature; Seeds won Best Director, with Apocalypse nominated. 

At the Cinema Eye Honors, Come See Me In the Good Light won Outstanding Nonfiction Feature, with 2000 Meters, Cover-Up, and Perfect Neighbor nominated. Perfect Neighbor did win Best Direction, with Cover-Up, 2000 Meters, and Come See Me in the Good Light nominated alongside it; Seeds won Outstanding Debut; Perfect Neighbor won Editing, with Cover-Up, and 2000 Meters nominated.

The most peculiar film in the race is the five-hour documentary, My Undesirable Friends, as it has won Best Documentary prizes at the Gothams (2000 Meters and Perfect Neighbor nominated), and the coveted trifecta of top film critics circles: New York Film, Los Angeles, and the National Society of Film Critics. It also has editing nominations at the Cinema Eye Honors and IDA. 

When it comes to the industry guilds, such as the Producers Guild. Alabama Solution, Cover-Up, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, and Perfect Neighbor received nominations. For the Directors Guild, 2000 Meters, Perfect Neighbor, Cutting Through Rocks, Mistress Dispeller, and Cover-Up were nominated. This lineup includes two previous Documentary Oscar winners (Laura Poitras and Mstyslav Chernov).

That’s a lot of information to digest. Essentially, glean off what you view as pertinent precursors that speak to the sensibilities of this branch from the past. Good luck, and pray you get three picks right.

Precursors: Sundance, Gothams, IDA, Cinema Eye Honors, Critics Choice Documentary Awards, Producers Guild of America (PGA), Directors Guild of America (DGA), BAFTA

And below we layout out final predictions for the remaining shorts categories.

Best Animated Short:  

  1. Snow Bear   
  2. Autokar   
  3. The Girl Who Cried Pearls  
  4. Éiru
  5. Butterfly   

Best Documentary Short:

  1. All the Empty Rooms  
  2. The Devil is Busy  
  3. Cashing Out  
  4. Rovina’s Choice  
  5. Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud  

Best Live Action Short Film:

  1. Beyond Silence  
  2. The Singers   
  3. A Friend of Dorothy    
  4. Rock, Paper, Scissors   
  5. Buther’s Stain   

Courtesy of Amritpal Rai and The Awards Team

Feature Image from A24’s ‘Marty Supreme’