The 78th Cannes Film Festival is winding down. Our Rolling Tape correspondents, Danny Jarabek and Nandita Joshi, have spent the last week-and-a-half covering the festival with their reactions and reviews, and the moment of truth has arrived: which films are walking away with a major prize? While many festival prizes will be dolled out from the various sidebar competitions, our main focus is on the official competition. Who do we feel will win the major prizes, including the Palme d’Or?
Neon has been on a consistent winning streak, winning the last six Palme d’Ors, and has increased its acquisition game by acquiring more competitive films, which end up winning more awards. This year, they have All of a Sudden, Fjord, Paper Tiger, Hope, and The Unknown. Yet, MUBI has a few surprise contenders of their own in the forms of Fatherland and Minotaur.
The most interesting aspect (vicariously experiencing the festival from afar) is that it hasn’t been an immediate slam dunk for many of these films. Hope, the latest film from Na Hong-jin, has a 3.3 on Letterboxd and 69 on Metacritic; Paper Tiger has slightly better scores on both Letterboxd and Metacritic. Fatherland, Fjord, All of a Sudden, and Minotaur seemed to enjoy universal acclaim between Letterboxd, Metacritic, and even Rotten Tomatoes. It feels like a battle between two distributors: Can Neon continue its streak, or will MUBI break through in a major way?
Of course, winning the Palme isn’t the only major prize; there are six other prizes to be won, and last year, many prize winners would go on to receive Oscar nominations, including last year’s Best Actor winner, Wagner Moura, for The Secret Agent, the Grand Prix winner Sentimental Value, and one of the co-Jury Prize winners, Sirāt.
As it does every year, these awards are determined by a rotating cycle of jury members and how they delegate their discussions around what should win. This year, the jury President is celebrated filmmaker Park Chan-wook, and his jury includes Diego Céspedes, Isaach de Bankolé, Paul Laverty, Demi Moore, Ruth Negga, Stellan Skarsgård, Laura Wandel, and Chloé Zhao.
Today, Danny, Owen Wilczek, and I give our predictions for what we feel will win these seven competitive categories, including the Palme d’Or.
Best Screenplay
Danny’s pick: The Black Ball
Reason: A late-breaking queer epic that premiered on the second-to-last day of the festival, The Black Ball seems poised for instant success with an inevitable bidding war to come. I was holding the Screenplay spot for an end-of-festival breakout because no prior titles made sense to me here, and while debating The Dreamed Adventure, I landed on it after the strong initial reactions.
Owen’s pick: Fatherland
Reason: Paweł Pawlikowski won the Best Director prize at the Cannes Film Festival previously with Cold War. While Fatherland received much praise, to me, it doesn’t seem like it would be one of the three major prizes. Best Screenplay could be a way to award the film for its technical craft and great performances. Could be totally wrong, though, especially since it has a 90 on Metacritic.
Paul’s pick: Paper Tiger
Reason: James Gray has been a significant pillar for the festival, especially as an American filmmaker. His sensibilities have often veered toward the auteur method of storytelling. Paper Tiger is his sixth film in the Cannes Competition lineup, and while he has never won an award, Paper Tiger feels like the culmination of his reverence and respect among industry professionals and a way to reward his mature, restrained writing that’s central to all of his films.
Best Director
Danny’s pick: Pawel Pawlikowski (Fatherland)
Reason: While Pawel Pawlikowski has won this award before with Cold War, that’s not something the jury may be aware of or thinking about during their deliberations. European critics in particular have elevated the jury grid scores, and the direction is impeccable work, particularly in the elaborate image-making alongside cinematographer Lukasz Zal and the impressive performances.
Owen’s pick: Ryusuke Hamaguchi (All of a Sudden)
Reason: Hamaguchi, directing an over-three-hour drama film, feels due for an award at the festival. Since it premiered at Cannes, it has gotten rave reviews for its incredible performances from Virginie Efria and Tao Okamoto, and humane and emotional storytelling. This seems like a natural progression to achieve from winning Best Screenplay for Drive My Car at the 2021 festival.
Paul’s pick: Cristian Mangui (Fjord)
Reason: Cristian Mungiu’s work has mostly been awarded at the festival, winning Best Screenplay and Director prizes in the past. Fjord, from the outset, feels like a film that can form a universal consensus among a jury as a compelling drama, but perhaps feels in line with the director’s prior works. Yet, there’s no denying it’s among the festival’s most acclaimed films. Mungiu would become the sixth director to win multiple Cannes Directing prizes, so while a second Palme doesn’t feel immediate, another Directing prize may be appropriate for his contributions to the festival.
Best Performance by an Actress
Danny’s pick: Lea Seydoux (Gentle Monster and The Unknown)
Reason: It would be unconventional to reward one performer across two films, but my alternative would be unconventional in recognizing two performers in one film (Virginie Efira and Tao Okamoto in All of a Sudden).
Owen’s pick: Adèle Exarchopoulos (Another Day)
Reason: Adèle Exarchopoulos has gotten very good reviews for her performance in Another Day by Jeanne Herry. Exarchopoulos is a very well-known actress at Cannes, given her history with Blue is the Warmest Color, and this film is a showcase for her as a recovering alcoholic, so I see no reason why she can’t be a top contender to take home the Best Actress Prize.
Paul’s pick: Lea Seydoux (Gentle Monster)
Reason: Lea Seydoux is one of our most celebrated global actors, and her performance in Marie Kreutzer’s Gentle Monster has been lauded as among her best. She’s had a consistent presence at the festival yet has never had the chance to shine as an individual performance; perhaps this may be the festival’s time to recognize her for her stand-alone work.
Best Performance by an Actor
Danny’s pick: Sebastian Stan (Fjord)
Reason: Fjord is one of Neon’s primary Palme d’Or contenders, but its reception hasn’t been a universal home run. It’s an extremely cold film (both in execution and Norwegian location) that thrives in ambiguity. Stan and co-lead Renate Reinsve portray the challenging topics of religious persecution amidst a child abuse case well, and if Fjord misses the top three, I would imagine the jury recognizing one of their performances.
Owen’s pick: Swann Arlaud (Notre salut)
Reason: This is a little bit of a swing, but I’d like to see Swann Arlaud take home the Best Actor prize at this year’s festival. Arlaud, who is most well-known for his role in Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall, seems like a contender who could take home the prize this year. He has previously won three César Awards, and it looks to be a historical drama, which can sometimes lead to actors giving their best performances.
Paul’s pick: Javier Bardem (The Beloved)
Reason: Javier Bardem has previously won Best Actor for 2010’s Biutiful; he would be the fourth person to have won twice, after Dean Stockwell, Jack Lemmon, and Marcello Mastroianni, should he take home this prize. Yet, it’s hard to find any actor who not only has the immense clout and respect but also the tenacity to evolve, as his work in The Beloved has been remarked as one of his best performances.
Jury Prize
Danny’s pick: Hope
Reason: One of the most polarizing films of the festival, Hope is a rare big genre swing that features aliens, shoddy VFX, and blistering action set pieces. If there’s any jury head that would be willing to recognize the sheer spectacle of a film like Na Hong-jin’s, it would be Park Chan-wook.
Owen’s pick: Fjord
Reason: Cristian Mungiu is a previous Palme d’Or winner and features distinguished actors Sebastian Stan and Renate Reinsve. NEON is the distributor of this film, and with the star power and director’s pedigree, feels well-positioned to take home a prize at this year’s festival.
Paul’s pick: The Black Ball
Reason: Described by Kyle Buchanan as “a shot of adrenaline” and Matt Neglia at Next Best Picture as “the kind of film that feels like a very special achievement,” Black Ball is a triptych epic, sprawling across different generations of gay men seeking queer vindication and acceptance. Directed by Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi, with an incredibly high Letterboxd curve and critical acclaim for being such a unique blend of epic storytelling — a go-for-broke, swinging-for-the-fences spectacular effort — sometimes a genuine festival surprise can more than catapult itself to a Jury prize.
Grand Prix
Danny’s pick: Minotaur
Reason: As my second favorite film of the festival, it’s a toss-up whether the jury will align with a film more geared toward commentary on Russian power structures or toward other themes and topics. In either case, Minotaur is an extremely accomplished work from Andrey Zvyagintsev and is almost sure to take an award in some category. My gut is telling me Minotaur could take the Palme for Mubi, but betting against NEON is a bet that hasn’t paid off since 2018.
Owen’s pick: Coward
Reason: Lukas Dhont‘s latest film seems well-positioned to take home a prize at this year’s festival. This World War I drama features younger actors who are looking to break through. This could be another Dhont film that breaks through at the Academy Awards, similar to Close (2022), his last film that debuted at Cannes and was nominated for Best International Feature Film.
Paul’s pick: Minotaur
Along the same lines of Mungui’s history, Andrey Zvygintsev has his own history, having won Best Screenplay and the Jury prize in the past — he seems destined to either win the Palme outright or come exceptionally close, which is where the Grand Prix comes in as a worthy runner-up award. Described as an intimate political thriller, Zvygintsev’s cold, methodical style seems to be praised as one of the best the festival has showcased.
Palme d’Or
Danny’s pick: All of a Sudden
Reason: This is essentially a coin flip in my head between Hamaguchi’s 3+ hour elder care epic and Mubi’s leading contender with Minotaur. I’ve leaned 51/49 toward All of a Sudden with the subjective evidence that some jury members likely would have a sensibility that aligns with the humane gentleness of this film. I do believe it’s NEON’s only chance to maintain their streak, and what a shocker it would be for it to end. For what it’s worth, All of a Sudden is the only film to maintain 100% on Rotten Tomatoes through the festival.
Owen’s pick: Minotaur
Reason: Director Andrey Zvygintsev is no stranger to the Cannes Film Festival and has taken home both the Best Screenplay prize as well as the Jury Prize. This film seems like it has strong commentary on corporations and possibly capitalism as a whole. Minotaur winning the Palme d’Or would also mark the first time MUBI wins, taking down NEON, which has won six consecutive years.
Paul’s pick: All of a Sudden
Reason: No film in the festival feels more emotionally resonant and adult than Hamaguchi’s manner of patient, empathetic storytelling regarding our mortality, death, and peace existing in a capitalist society. Hamaguchi’s success with Drive My Car has added to his cinematic presence, and with All of a Sudden boasting an epic running time, yet focused on an intimately profound narrative of casual conversations in a nursing home, the human condition has never felt so resounding as Hamaguchi’s humanistic voice. This feels like the right time for Hamaguchi to win his first Palme d’Or.
Article Courtesy of Amritpal Rai, Owen Wilczek, and Danny Jarabek
Feature Image Still from ‘Fjord’ via The Hollywood Reporter